The 2021 Vertigo Collection
+ The Gallery Collection
Classified → Covert
About the craftCraft 1708338 · ways to build: 4The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profitAverage profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment.+40 579.42₸
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam».192 421.67₸
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances.233 001.08₸
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment.+21.1%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input.30%
If buying now (with float)
invest at least 455 293.19₸
· profit at most −222 292.11₸
(at most -48.8%) · chance of profit at most 30%
An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.
!
The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested) × 37% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.26122007.09 → 275736.02 ₸
P250 | Epicenter (Factory New) × 77% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.5570414.58 → 179557.17 ₸
Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.
profit on prices without salesIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −151 259 ₸Which itemsIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −151 259 ₸: M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear)
Craft variants
Craft variants
The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.
marketplace pricesells slowly40% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.pricier variants existPattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
2× Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested)buy0.1500–0.1640
8× G3SG1 | The Executioner (Field-Tested)buy0.1500–0.1640
Variant 3The Kilowatt Collection instead of The Gallery Collection
marketplace pricefloat out of reachThere are enough lots, but the needed float can't be reached with them: the craft can't be put together with the promised wears right now.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
2× Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested)buy0.1500–0.1699
8× Zeus x27 | Olympus (Factory New)buy0.0000–0.0060
Variant 4The Fracture Collection instead of The Gallery Collection
marketplace pricesells slowly40% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
2× Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested)buy0.1500–0.1616
How to build
Ways to build
4 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.
!
7% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×3
Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1657
(under 1% of this wear's listings)
122 007.09 ₸
at 40 669.03
souvenirSteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.165765f′ (normalized) 0.305422wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 9 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: suitable 2 of 20 · from 54 413.88 ₸ (float 0.1570) · craft not before 15.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×7
P250 | Epicenter
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0047
(3% of this wear's listings)
70 414.58 ₸
at 10 059.23
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004798f′ (normalized) 0.005997wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 55 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~2,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 29 193.16 ₸
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 125) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs192 421.67 ₸
+40 579.42
(+21.1%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.095825202result 0.070000, 0.057238, 0.076660«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −40 591 ₸
!
10% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 11% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×1
Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1741
(under 1% of this wear's listings)
40 669.03 ₸
at 40 669.03
souvenirSteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.174150f′ (normalized) 0.321863wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 9 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: suitable 2 of 20 · from 54 413.88 ₸ (float 0.1570) · craft not before 15.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×8
UMP-45 | Neo-Noir
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0784
(0% of this wear's listings)
42 786.95 ₸
at 5 348.37
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.078400f′ (normalized) 0.078400wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 70 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · little data: 2.0 d.
Lis-Skins: suitable 2 of 105 · from 19 359.31 ₸ (float 0.0773) · craft not before 15.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×1
P250 | Epicenter
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0073
(3% of this wear's listings)
10 059.23 ₸
at 10 059.23
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.007350f′ (normalized) 0.009187wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 55 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~2,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 29 193.16 ₸
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 125) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs93 515.21 ₸
+23 354.65
(+25.0%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.095825202result 0.070000, 0.057238, 0.076660«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −95 925 ₸
!
8% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×2
Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1689
(under 1% of this wear's listings)
81 338.06 ₸
at 40 669.03
souvenirSteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.168908f′ (normalized) 0.311585wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 9 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: suitable 2 of 20 · from 54 413.88 ₸ (float 0.1570) · craft not before 15.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×4
UMP-45 | Neo-Noir
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0765
(0% of this wear's listings)
21 393.48 ₸
at 5 348.37
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.076576f′ (normalized) 0.076576wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 70 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · little data: 2.0 d.
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 105) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×4
P250 | Epicenter
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0057
(3% of this wear's listings)
40 236.90 ₸
at 10 059.23
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.005754f′ (normalized) 0.007193wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 55 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~2,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 29 193.16 ₸
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 125) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs142 968.44 ₸
+31 967.06
(+22.4%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.095825202result 0.070000, 0.057238, 0.076660«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −233 549 ₸
!
6% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×2
Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1637
(under 1% of this wear's listings)
81 338.06 ₸
at 40 669.03
souvenirSteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.163792f′ (normalized) 0.301554wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 9 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: suitable 2 of 20 · from 54 413.88 ₸ (float 0.1570) · craft not before 15.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×2
Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0747
(≈0% of this wear's listings)
131 848.69 ₸
at 65 924.35
souvenirSteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.074797f′ (normalized) 0.127054wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 4 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 5) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×1
UMP-45 | Neo-Noir
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0747
(0% of this wear's listings)
5 348.37 ₸
at 5 348.37
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.074797f′ (normalized) 0.074797wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 70 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · little data: 2.0 d.
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 105) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×5
P250 | Epicenter
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0041
(3% of this wear's listings)
50 296.13 ₸
at 10 059.23
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004197f′ (normalized) 0.005247wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 55 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~2,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 29 193.16 ₸
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 125) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs268 831.25 ₸
+22 235.48
(+8.3%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.095825202result 0.076660, 0.070000, 0.057238«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
Another set, profit no worse than the best by%
What you get
3 outcomes
Profitable outcome 30%
Losing outcome 70%
at a loss
worst
Glock-18 | Gold Toof
Factory New
60 856.47 ₸35.00%
SteamGlock-18 | Gold Toof (Factory New)net 52918.65you get 0.070000The Gallery Collectionsells 8 a weeksell now to a buy order: 61 001.83 ₸
(you get 53 045.02)) · buy orders: 3092
sell on Market.CSGO: 55 649.24 ₸ to your card
cheapest lot 61 018.92 · lots 40
on CSFloat: from 50 352.30 ₸listings: 88
on CS.Money: ~ 51 910.98 ₸
on Lis-Skins: from 51 879.33 ₸listings: 170
at a loss
M4A1-S | Vaporwave
Factory New
74 393.19 ₸35.00%
SteamM4A1-S | Vaporwave (Factory New)net 64689.72you get 0.057238The Gallery Collectionsells 15 a weeksell now to a buy order: 75 446.59 ₸
(you get 65 605.72)) · buy orders: 3407
sell on Market.CSGO: 68 396.44 ₸ to your card
cheapest lot 74 996.10 · lots 18
on CSFloat: from 60 992.02 ₸listings: 171
on CS.Money: ~ 69 327.58 ₸
on Lis-Skins: from 64 235.86 ₸listings: 174
in profit
best
M4A1-S | Imminent Danger
Minimal Wear
735 379.63 ₸30.00%
price without deals
SteamM4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear)net 639460.52you get 0.076660
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 370 857.87 ₸
(you get 322 485.09)) · buy orders: 221
sell on Market.CSGO: 434 595.09 ₸ to your card
cheapest lot 476 529.70 · lots 7
on CSFloat: from 390 823.20 ₸listings: 12
on CS.Money: ~ 395 548.93 ₸
on Lis-Skins: from 370 917.20 ₸listings: 29
More
In a week, when the outcome can be sold
from outcome price history
In a bad week+26 507.08 ₸a worse week happens one time in ten
In a typical week+33 273.10 ₸historical median
If you repeat
10 000 simulations over the outcome odds
I already have items
enter their float — I'll pick what to buy
Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Vertigo Collection and The Gallery Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.
Third collection
add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more
All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.
How to read these numbers
«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.
f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.
Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.
The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.
Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.
