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The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Nuke Collection

Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade

Average profit +4 903.19₽

Invest 13 698.90₽

Average return 18 602.09₽

ROI +35.8%

Chance of profit 50%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 33 836.28₽ · profit at most −15 234.20₽ (at most -45.0%) · chance of profit at most 50%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

Souvenir UMP-45 | Mechanism (Factory New) × 5 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.47 847.80 → 2094.07 ₽

Souvenir UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear) × 5 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.47 12851.10 → 31742.22 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −13 624 ₽

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Nuke Collection

+4 903.19 ₽ +35.8% chance of profit 50%

expensive: M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Factory New) · 35 755.50 ₽ · chance 50%

profit on prices without salesat least −13 624 ₽

5× Souvenir UMP-45 | Mechanism (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0037
5× Souvenir UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0743

Variant 2 The Dust Collection instead of The Nuke Collection

+6 495.67 ₽ +89.2% chance of profit 50%

expensive: AWP | Snake Camo (Factory New) · 44 695.44 ₽ · chance 17%

profit on prices without salesat least −7 208 ₽

5× Souvenir UMP-45 | Mechanism (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0037
5× AK-47 | Predator (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0743

Variant 3 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The 2021 Vertigo Collection

+5 893.59 ₽ +37.6% chance of profit 60%

expensive: M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Factory New) · 35 755.50 ₽ · chance 60%

profit on prices without salesat least −15 560 ₽

6× Souvenir UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0746
4× SCAR-20 | Arctic Camo Panels (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0040

Variant 4 The Overpass Collection instead of The 2021 Vertigo Collection

+5 406.55 ₽ +26.1% chance of profit 70%

expensive: M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Factory New) · 35 755.50 ₽ · chance 70%

profit on prices without salesat least −20 618 ₽

7× Souvenir UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0740
3× Souvenir P2000 | Grassland (Factory New) buy 0.0600–0.0605

Variant 5 The Radiant Collection instead of The 2021 Vertigo Collection

+5 006.10 ₽ +38.8% chance of profit 50%

expensive: M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Factory New) · 35 755.50 ₽ · chance 50%

profit on prices without salesat least −12 872 ₽

5× Souvenir UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0748
5× SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0042

Variant 6 The Safehouse Collection instead of The 2021 Vertigo Collection

+4 978.07 ₽ +38.5% chance of profit 50%

expensive: M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Factory New) · 35 755.50 ₽ · chance 50%

profit on prices without salesat least −12 900 ₽

5× Souvenir UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0748
5× M249 | Gator Mesh (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0042

How to build

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×5

Souvenir UMP-45 | Mechanism

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0037

847.80 ₽

at 169.56

souvenirSteam

×5

Souvenir UMP-45 | Fallout Warning

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

12 851.10 ₽

at 2 570.22

souvenirSteam

Set · 10 pcs 13 698.90 ₽ +4 903.19 (+35.8%)

What you get 5 outcomes

Profitable outcome 50%
Losing outcome 50%

in profit

best

M4A4 | Radiation Hazard

Factory New

41 118.82 ₽ 50.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

AK-47 | Green Laminate

Factory New

4 320.00 ₽ 12.50%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

Negev | Infrastructure

Factory New

822.59 ₽ 12.50%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

Nova | Interlock

Factory New

836.00 ₽ 12.50%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

P90 | Schematic

Factory New

685.32 ₽ 12.50%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +3 021.96 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +4 247.21 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Vertigo Collection and The Nuke Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 17 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1712095 · The Arabesque Collection + The Nuke Collection · profit 5 934.69₽ · invest 15 634.08₽
profit on prices without salesat least −15 519 ₽ rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Sirocco Script (Factory New) instead of Souvenir UMP-45 | Mechanism (Factory New); Souvenir UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear): 6 pcs instead of 5; Souvenir UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074656 instead of 0.074307
Craft 1737216 · The Nuke Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 5 893.59₽ · invest 15 677.12₽
profit on prices without salesat least −15 560 ₽ rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Arctic Camo Panels (Factory New) instead of Souvenir UMP-45 | Mechanism (Factory New); Souvenir UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear): 6 pcs instead of 5; Souvenir UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074656 instead of 0.074307
Craft 1711372 · The Anubis Collection + The Nuke Collection · profit 5 509.86₽ · invest 16 244.88₽
profit on prices without salesat least −16 035 ₽ rare inputs

M4A1-S | Mud-Spec (Factory New) instead of Souvenir UMP-45 | Mechanism (Factory New); Souvenir UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear): 6 pcs instead of 5; Souvenir UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074189 instead of 0.074307
Craft 1705368 · The 2018 Nuke Collection + The Nuke Collection · profit 5 026.88₽ · invest 12 979.00₽
profit on prices without salesat least −12 851 ₽ rare inputs

MP7 | Motherboard (Factory New) instead of Souvenir UMP-45 | Mechanism (Factory New); Souvenir UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074357 instead of 0.074307
Craft 1715051 · The Boreal Collection + The Nuke Collection · profit 5 019.53₽ · invest 12 911.90₽
profit on prices without salesat least −12 858 ₽ rare inputs

SSG 08 | Tiger Tear (Factory New) instead of Souvenir UMP-45 | Mechanism (Factory New); Souvenir UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074592 instead of 0.074307
Craft 1734274 · The Harlequin Collection + The Nuke Collection · profit 5 014.70₽ · invest 12 922.20₽
profit on prices without salesat least −12 863 ₽ rare inputs

XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New) instead of Souvenir UMP-45 | Mechanism (Factory New); Souvenir UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074809 instead of 0.074307
Craft 1737179 · The Nuke Collection + The Radiant Collection · profit 5 006.10₽ · invest 12 909.75₽
profit on prices without salesat least −12 872 ₽ rare inputs

SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New) instead of Souvenir UMP-45 | Mechanism (Factory New); Souvenir UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074809 instead of 0.074307
Craft 1709651 · The Achroma Collection + The Nuke Collection · profit 4 997.66₽ · invest 12 915.70₽
profit on prices without salesat least −12 880 ₽ rare inputs

MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Factory New) instead of Souvenir UMP-45 | Mechanism (Factory New); Souvenir UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074809 instead of 0.074307
Craft 1713800 · The Ascent Collection + The Nuke Collection · profit 4 995.66₽ · invest 12 926.05₽
profit on prices without salesat least −12 882 ₽ rare inputs

XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New) instead of Souvenir UMP-45 | Mechanism (Factory New); Souvenir UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074809 instead of 0.074307
Craft 1737201 · The Nuke Collection + The Safehouse Collection · profit 4 978.07₽ · invest 12 930.55₽
profit on prices without salesat least −12 900 ₽ rare inputs

M249 | Gator Mesh (Factory New) instead of Souvenir UMP-45 | Mechanism (Factory New); Souvenir UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074809 instead of 0.074307
Craft 1706215 · The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Nuke Collection · profit 4 974.58₽ · invest 13 482.80₽
profit on prices without salesat least −13 483 ₽ rare inputs

Souvenir Five-SeveN | Withered Vine (Factory New) instead of Souvenir UMP-45 | Mechanism (Factory New); Souvenir UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074357 instead of 0.074307
Craft 1733888 · The Graphic Design Collection + The Nuke Collection · profit 4 968.08₽ · invest 13 051.40₽
profit on prices without salesat least −12 910 ₽ rare inputs

M249 | Spectrogram (Factory New) instead of Souvenir UMP-45 | Mechanism (Factory New); Souvenir UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074357 instead of 0.074307
Craft 1735885 · The Italy Collection + The Nuke Collection · profit 4 964.34₽ · invest 12 960.60₽
profit on prices without salesat least −12 913 ₽ rare inputs

XM1014 | CaliCamo (Factory New) instead of Souvenir UMP-45 | Mechanism (Factory New); Souvenir UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074809 instead of 0.074307
Craft 1707060 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Nuke Collection · profit 4 957.51₽ · invest 13 322.10₽
profit on prices without salesat least −12 963 ₽ rare inputs

Souvenir P90 | Verdant Growth (Factory New) instead of Souvenir UMP-45 | Mechanism (Factory New); Souvenir UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074205 instead of 0.074307
Craft 1736714 · The Lake Collection + The Nuke Collection · profit 4 944.78₽ · invest 12 963.60₽
profit on prices without salesat least −12 933 ₽ rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Night Ops (Factory New) instead of Souvenir UMP-45 | Mechanism (Factory New); Souvenir UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074809 instead of 0.074307
Craft 1726927 · The Dust 2 Collection + The Nuke Collection · profit 4 930.53₽ · invest 13 030.95₽
profit on prices without salesat least −12 947 ₽ rare inputs

Tec-9 | VariCamo (Factory New) instead of Souvenir UMP-45 | Mechanism (Factory New); Souvenir UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074809 instead of 0.074307
Craft 1718889 · The Chop Shop Collection + The Nuke Collection · profit 4 706.32₽ · invest 18 830.90₽
profit on prices without salesat least −18 417 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Galil AR | Urban Rubble (Factory New) instead of Souvenir UMP-45 | Mechanism (Factory New); Souvenir UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074357 instead of 0.074307

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Nuke Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 5 outcomes

More

How to build