The 2021 Vertigo Collection
+ The Revolution Collection
Classified → Covert
About the craftCraft 1708856 · ways to build: 2The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profitAverage profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment.+2 160.89₴
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam».12 048.78₴
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances.14 209.67₴
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment.+17.9%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input.20%
If buying now (with float)
invest at least 27 864.00₴
· profit at most −13 654.33₴
(at most -49.0%) · chance of profit at most 20%
An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.
!
The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested) × 25% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.218080.71 → 17858.37 ₴
P2000 | Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear) × 15% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.16289.59 → 625.50 ₴
AWP | Duality (Factory New) × 75% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.553678.48 → 9380.13 ₴
Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.
Sell on a marketplace: CSFloat — outcomes: 1.
They have no price on Steam (above its price cap or nobody listed them); they are counted at the marketplace's cheapest listing minus its fee, ignoring pattern and float, — that is 20.0% of the probability. Money from the marketplace is real money you can withdraw, while the investment comes from the Steam balance. Without them (as zero, like before) the profit is -8 571.76 ₴.
Craft variants
Craft variants
The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.
marketplace pricesells slowly40% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
2× Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested)buy0.1500–0.1616
marketplace pricesells slowly40% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.pricier variants existPattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
2× Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested)buy0.1500–0.1640
8× G3SG1 | The Executioner (Field-Tested)buy0.1500–0.1640
Variant 3The Kilowatt Collection instead of The Revolution Collection
marketplace pricefloat out of reachThere are enough lots, but the needed float can't be reached with them: the craft can't be put together with the promised wears right now.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
2× Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested)buy0.1500–0.1699
8× Zeus x27 | Olympus (Factory New)buy0.0000–0.0060
Variant 4The Fracture Collection instead of The Revolution Collection
marketplace pricefloat out of reachThere are enough lots, but the needed float can't be reached with them: the craft can't be put together with the promised wears right now.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
2× Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested)buy0.1500–0.1676
1× P90 | Trigon (Field-Tested)buy0.1500–0.1676
7× Nova | Antique (Factory New)buy0.0000–0.0053
How to build
Ways to build
2 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.
!
5% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×2
Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1616
(under 1% of this wear's listings)
8 080.71 ₴
at 4 040.35
souvenirSteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.161681f′ (normalized) 0.297414wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 9 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: suitable 2 of 20 · from 5 405.87 ₴ (float 0.1570) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×1
P2000 | Wicked Sick
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0740
(0% of this wear's listings)
289.59 ₴
at 289.59
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.074063f′ (normalized) 0.074063wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 394 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new per day — can't tell yet · little data: 0.0 d.
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 297) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×7
AWP | Duality
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0035
(2% of this wear's listings)
3 678.48 ₴
at 525.50
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.003555f′ (normalized) 0.004443wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 455 · good ≈ 11
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · among lots up to 836.92 ₴ · little data: 2.9 d.
Lis-Skins: suitable 16 of 552 · from 1 326.33 ₴ (float 0.0017) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs12 048.78 ₴
+2 160.89
(+17.9%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.069999900result 0.070000, 0.056000, 0.056000«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
6% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×1
Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1644
(under 1% of this wear's listings)
4 040.35 ₴
at 4 040.35
souvenirSteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.164456f′ (normalized) 0.302856wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 9 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: suitable 2 of 20 · from 5 405.87 ₴ (float 0.1570) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×5
P2000 | Wicked Sick
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0750
(0% of this wear's listings)
1 447.93 ₴
at 289.59
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.075028f′ (normalized) 0.075028wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 394 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new per day — can't tell yet · little data: 0.0 d.
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 297) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×4
AWP | Duality
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0043
(3% of this wear's listings)
2 101.99 ₴
at 525.50
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004399f′ (normalized) 0.005499wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 455 · good ≈ 13
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · among lots up to 836.92 ₴ · little data: 2.9 d.
Lis-Skins: suitable 17 of 552 · from 1 326.33 ₴ (float 0.0017) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs7 590.27 ₴
+1 687.70
(+22.2%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.069999900result 0.070000, 0.056000, 0.056000«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
Another set, profit no worse than the best by%
What you get
3 outcomes
Profitable outcome 20%
Losing outcome 80%
at a loss
worst
AK-47 | Head Shot
Factory New
4 668.32 ₴40.00%
SteamAK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New)net 4059.41you get 0.070000The Revolution Collectionsells 19 a weeksell now to a buy order: 4 657.89 ₴
(you get 4 050.33)) · buy orders: 8199
sell on Market.CSGO: 3 536.33 ₴ to your card
cheapest lot 3 877.55 · lots 22
on CSFloat: from 3 487.51 ₴listings: 141
on CS.Money: ~ 4 052.61 ₴
on Lis-Skins: from 3 691.74 ₴listings: 148
at a loss
M4A4 | Temukau
Factory New
5 328.11 ₴40.00%
SteamM4A4 | Temukau (Factory New)net 4633.14you get 0.056000The Revolution Collectionsells 48 a weeksell now to a buy order: 5 153.94 ₴
(you get 4 481.68)) · buy orders: 8698
sell on Market.CSGO: 4 115.04 ₴ to your card
cheapest lot 4 512.11 · lots 40
on CSFloat: from 3 837.61 ₴listings: 249
on CS.Money: ~ 4 214.19 ₴
on Lis-Skins: from 4 082.23 ₴listings: 406
in profit
best
M4A1-S | Imminent Danger
Factory New
54 758.43 ₴20.00%
sell on CSFloat
SteamM4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New)net 53663.26you get 0.056000no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 54 758.43 ₴listings 27 · you get 53 663.26 ₴ (2.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternsell now to a buy order: 89 470.38 ₴
(you get 77 800.33)) · buy orders: 206
sell on Market.CSGO: 60 175.88 ₴ to your card
cheapest lot 65 982.32 · lots 4
on CSFloat: from 54 758.43 ₴listings: 27
on CS.Money: ~ 57 454.19 ₴
on Lis-Skins: from 55 494.54 ₴listings: 20
More
In a week, when the outcome can be sold
from outcome price history
In a bad week+1 819.24 ₴a worse week happens one time in ten
In a typical week+2 052.57 ₴historical median
If you repeat
10 000 simulations over the outcome odds
I already have items
enter their float — I'll pick what to buy
Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Vertigo Collection and The Revolution Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.
Third collection
add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more
All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.
Similar
6 crafts almost like this one
The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.
Craft 1708568
· The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Kilowatt Collection · profit 2 859.06₴
· invest 11 100.46₴
marketplace pricefloat out of reachrare inputs
Zeus x27 | Olympus (Factory New) instead of P2000 | Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear), AWP | Duality (Factory New); Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested): float at most 0.169982 instead of 0.161681
Craft 1708312
· The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Fracture Collection · profit 2 573.20₴
· invest 10 513.06₴
marketplace pricerare inputs
M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested), XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New) instead of P2000 | Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear), AWP | Duality (Factory New); Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162614 instead of 0.161681
Craft 1708569
· The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Kilowatt Collection · profit 2 512.76₴
· invest 10 838.45₴
marketplace pricerare inputs
Zeus x27 | Olympus (Minimal Wear), Zeus x27 | Olympus (Factory New) instead of P2000 | Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear), AWP | Duality (Factory New); Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165226 instead of 0.161681
Craft 1708002
· The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit 2 466.08₴
· invest 12 265.32₴
profit on prices without salesat least −490 ₴marketplace pricerare inputs
AUG | Death by Puppy (Minimal Wear), P90 | Nostalgia (Factory New) instead of P2000 | Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear), AWP | Duality (Factory New); Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested): float at most 0.167065 instead of 0.161681
Craft 1708829
· The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 2 247.68₴
· invest 11 395.10₴
marketplace pricerare inputs
Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear), P250 | Visions (Factory New) instead of P2000 | Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear), AWP | Duality (Factory New); Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168614 instead of 0.161681
Craft 1708728
· The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Phoenix Collection · profit 2 146.94₴
· invest 12 290.95₴
marketplace pricefloat out of reachrare inputs
P90 | Trigon (Field-Tested), Nova | Antique (Factory New) instead of P2000 | Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear), AWP | Duality (Factory New); Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested): float at most 0.167698 instead of 0.161681
How to read these numbers
«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.
f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.
Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.
The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.
Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.
