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The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +1 822.87₴

Invest 1 357.85₴

Average return 3 180.72₴

ROI +134.2%

Chance of profit 40%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 3 434.45₴ · profit at most −253.73₴ (at most -7.4%) · chance of profit at most 30%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

Souvenir Negev | Infrastructure (Factory New) × 1 11% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 290.82 → 628.16 ₴

XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) × 9 11% of the wear window fits at least ×2.63 1067.03 → 2806.29 ₴

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −1 099 ₴

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

+1 822.87 ₴ +134.2% chance of profit 40%

expensive: Tec-9 | Whiteout (Factory New) · 8 976.64 ₴ · chance 30%

profit on prices without salesat least −1 099 ₴

1× Souvenir Negev | Infrastructure (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0075
9× XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0075

Variant 2 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Train 2025 Collection

+244.76 ₴ +56.4% chance of profit 28%

expensive: Galil AR | CAUTION! (Factory New) · 3 214.89 ₴ · chance 3.3%

sells slowly

1× Souvenir Nova | Interlock (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0755
7× Five-SeveN | Scumbria (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0755
2× XM1014 | Slipstream (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0048

Variant 3 The Mirage Collection instead of The Train 2025 Collection

+15 882.64 ₴ +150.5% chance of profit 90%

expensive: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) · 29 117.09 ₴ · chance 90%

profit on prices without salesat least −10 552 ₴

1× Souvenir Negev | Infrastructure (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
1× UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
8× MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039

Variant 4 The Overpass Collection instead of The Train 2025 Collection

+3 442.83 ₴ +72.0% chance of profit 90%

expensive: USP-S | Road Rash (Factory New) · 10 934.16 ₴ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −4 783 ₴

1× Souvenir Negev | Infrastructure (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0067
9× XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0067

Variant 5 only The Train 2025 Collection

+2 094.27 ₴ +176.6% chance of profit 33%

expensive: Tec-9 | Whiteout (Factory New) · 8 976.64 ₴ · chance 33%

profit on prices without salesat least −898 ₴

10× XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0079

Variant 6 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The 2021 Vertigo Collection

+2 070.21 ₴ +160.5% chance of profit 40%

expensive: Tec-9 | Whiteout (Factory New) · 8 976.64 ₴ · chance 30%

profit on prices without salesat least −1 031 ₴

9× XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0064
1× MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New) buy 0.0200–0.0245

How to build

11% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 11% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

Souvenir Negev | Infrastructure

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0075

290.82 ₴

at 290.82

souvenirSteam

×9

XM1014 | Run Run Run

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0075

1 067.03 ₴

at 118.56

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 357.85 ₴ +1 822.87 (+134.2%)

What you get 6 outcomes

Profitable outcome 40%
Losing outcome 60%

at a loss

worst

MAC-10 | Derailment

Factory New

380.10 ₴ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

Zeus x27 | Charged Up

Factory New

612.27 ₴ 30.00%

Steam

in profit

best

Tec-9 | Whiteout

Factory New

10 323.14 ₴ 30.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

Galil AR | CAUTION!

Factory New

3 697.12 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

MAG-7 | Prism Terrace

Factory New

2 253.16 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

P250 | Digital Architect

Factory New

1 944.81 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +1 395.57 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +1 564.60 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Vertigo Collection and The Train 2025 Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 20 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1713091 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 862.15₴ · invest 1 344.23₴
profit on prices without salesat least −1 060 ₴ rare inputs

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Craft 1714624 · The Bank Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 861.10₴ · invest 1 138.78₴
profit on prices without salesat least −832 ₴

Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Factory New) instead of Souvenir Negev | Infrastructure (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.006040 instead of 0.007547
Craft 1728919 · The Fever Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 860.99₴ · invest 1 101.53₴
profit on prices without salesat least −832 ₴ rare inputs

P2000 | Sure Grip (Factory New) instead of Souvenir Negev | Infrastructure (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.008079 instead of 0.007547
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profit on prices without salesat least −833 ₴ rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New) instead of Souvenir Negev | Infrastructure (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007752 instead of 0.007547
Craft 1712346 · The Arabesque Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 859.58₴ · invest 1 158.42₴
profit on prices without salesat least −833 ₴ rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Lunar Wyrm (Factory New) instead of Souvenir Negev | Infrastructure (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.008148 instead of 0.007547
Craft 1735734 · The Huntsman Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 855.90₴ · invest 1 135.32₴
profit on prices without salesat least −837 ₴ rare inputs

SSG 08 | Slashed (Field-Tested) instead of Souvenir Negev | Infrastructure (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.006217 instead of 0.007547
Craft 1743019 · The Train 2025 Collection + The Train Collection · profit 1 855.63₴ · invest 1 098.36₴
profit on prices without salesat least −837 ₴

Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New) instead of Souvenir Negev | Infrastructure (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007308 instead of 0.007547
Craft 1737640 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 852.90₴ · invest 1 204.08₴
profit on prices without salesat least −912 ₴ rare inputs

P90 | Cocoa Rampage (Factory New) instead of Souvenir Negev | Infrastructure (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007752 instead of 0.007547
Craft 1742934 · The Spy Tech Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 847.65₴ · invest 1 176.25₴
profit on prices without salesat least −845 ₴ rare inputs

AUG | Signal Scanner (Factory New) instead of Souvenir Negev | Infrastructure (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.008148 instead of 0.007547
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profit on prices without salesat least −854 ₴ rare inputs

XM1014 | Halftone Shift (Factory New) instead of Souvenir Negev | Infrastructure (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007752 instead of 0.007547
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profit on prices without salesat least −874 ₴ rare inputs

MAG-7 | Sonar (Factory New) instead of Souvenir Negev | Infrastructure (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007451 instead of 0.007547
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profit on prices without salesat least −993 ₴ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −936 ₴ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −872 ₴ rare inputs

G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) instead of Souvenir Negev | Infrastructure (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.006807 instead of 0.007547
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profit on prices without salesat least −872 ₴

M4A1-S | VariCamo (Factory New) instead of Souvenir Negev | Infrastructure (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007752 instead of 0.007547
Craft 1737973 · The Operation Hydra Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 805.01₴ · invest 1 349.91₴
profit on prices without salesat least −985 ₴ rare inputs

MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New) instead of Souvenir Negev | Infrastructure (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007451 instead of 0.007547
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profit on prices without salesat least −1 110 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

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Craft 1738371 · The Operation Riptide Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 794.40₴ · invest 1 235.89₴
profit on prices without salesat least −919 ₴ rare inputs

G3SG1 | Keeping Tabs (Factory New) instead of Souvenir Negev | Infrastructure (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007889 instead of 0.007547
Craft 1712661 · The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 695.39₴ · invest 1 333.22₴
profit on prices without salesat least −998 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

SCAR-20 | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) instead of Souvenir Negev | Infrastructure (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.006828 instead of 0.007547
Craft 1743037 · The Train 2025 Collection + The Vertigo Collection · profit 1 685.23₴ · invest 1 331.84₴
profit on prices without salesat least −1 073 ₴ rare inputs

P90 | Glacier Mesh (Minimal Wear) instead of Souvenir Negev | Infrastructure (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.006828 instead of 0.007547

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 6 outcomes

More

How to build