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The Alpha Collection + The Train Collection

Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade

Average profit +5 395.83₽

Invest 5 866.31₽

Average return 11 262.14₽

ROI +92.0%

Chance of profit 42%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 14 891.60₽ · profit at most −3 629.47₽ (at most -24.4%) · chance of profit at most 14%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

MP7 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear) × 7 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.55 5633.60 → 14365.68 ₽

UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT (Factory New) × 3 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.26 232.71 → 525.92 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −5 862 ₽

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Alpha Collection + The Train Collection

+5 395.83 ₽ +92.0% chance of profit 42%

expensive: Glock-18 | Sand Dune (Factory New) · 58 576.16 ₽ · chance 14%

profit on prices without salesat least −5 862 ₽

7× MP7 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0740
3× UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT (Factory New) buy 0.0600–0.0605

Variant 2 The Office Collection instead of The Train Collection

+10 401.50 ₽ +25.2% chance of profit 62%

expensive: Galil AR | Winter Forest (Factory New) · 93 834.50 ₽ · chance 30%

profit on prices without salesat least −41 206 ₽

1× MP7 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0740
6× FAMAS | Contrast Spray (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0740
3× FAMAS | Contrast Spray (Factory New) buy 0.0600–0.0605

Variant 3 The Lake Collection instead of The Train Collection

+5 445.84 ₽ +93.7% chance of profit 42%

expensive: Glock-18 | Sand Dune (Factory New) · 58 576.16 ₽ · chance 14%

profit on prices without salesat least −5 721 ₽

7× MP7 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0740
3× G3SG1 | Jungle Dashed (Factory New) buy 0.0600–0.0605

Variant 4 The Dust 2 Collection instead of The Train Collection

+5 437.81 ₽ +93.8% chance of profit 42%

expensive: Glock-18 | Sand Dune (Factory New) · 58 576.16 ₽ · chance 14%

profit on prices without salesat least −5 798 ₽

7× MP7 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0740
3× G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Factory New) buy 0.0600–0.0605

Variant 5 The Italy Collection instead of The Train Collection

+5 407.26 ₽ +92.8% chance of profit 42%

expensive: Glock-18 | Sand Dune (Factory New) · 58 576.16 ₽ · chance 14%

profit on prices without salesat least −5 802 ₽

7× MP7 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0740
3× Nova | Sand Dune (Factory New) buy 0.0600–0.0605

Variant 6 The Overpass Collection instead of The Train Collection

+5 199.65 ₽ +79.3% chance of profit 42%

expensive: Glock-18 | Sand Dune (Factory New) · 58 576.16 ₽ · chance 14%

profit on prices without salesat least −6 328 ₽

7× MP7 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0740
3× Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched (Factory New) buy 0.0600–0.0605

How to build

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×7

MP7 | Groundwater

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

5 633.60 ₽

at 804.80

Steam

×3

UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT

Factory New

buy 0.0600–0.0605

232.71 ₽

at 77.57

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 5 866.31 ₽ +5 395.83 (+92.0%)

profit on prices without sales at least −5 060 ₽

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×6

MP7 | Groundwater

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

4 828.80 ₽

at 804.80

Steam

×1

PP-Bizon | Urban Dashed

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

3.49 ₽

at 3.49

Steam

×3

UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT

Factory New

buy 0.0600–0.0605

232.71 ₽

at 77.57

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 5 065.00 ₽ +4 633.64 (+91.5%)

profit on prices without sales at least −4 257 ₽

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×5

MP7 | Groundwater

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

4 024.00 ₽

at 804.80

Steam

×2

PP-Bizon | Urban Dashed

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

6.98 ₽

at 3.49

Steam

×3

UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT

Factory New

buy 0.0600–0.0605

232.71 ₽

at 77.57

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 4 263.69 ₽ +3 871.46 (+90.8%)

profit on prices without sales at least −3 454 ₽

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×4

MP7 | Groundwater

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

3 219.20 ₽

at 804.80

Steam

×3

PP-Bizon | Urban Dashed

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

10.47 ₽

at 3.49

Steam

×3

UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT

Factory New

buy 0.0600–0.0605

232.71 ₽

at 77.57

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 3 462.38 ₽ +3 109.27 (+89.8%)

profit on prices without sales at least −2 652 ₽

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×3

MP7 | Groundwater

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

2 414.40 ₽

at 804.80

Steam

×4

PP-Bizon | Urban Dashed

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

13.96 ₽

at 3.49

Steam

×3

UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT

Factory New

buy 0.0600–0.0605

232.71 ₽

at 77.57

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 2 661.07 ₽ +2 347.09 (+88.2%)

What you get 11 outcomes

Profitable outcome 42%
Losing outcome 58%

in profit

best

Glock-18 | Sand Dune

Factory New

67 362.58 ₽ 14.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

Negev | Palm

Factory New

7 710.69 ₽ 14.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

P250 | Facets

Factory New

3 631.73 ₽ 14.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

Sawed-Off | Mosaico

Factory New

7 881.12 ₽ 14.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

SSG 08 | Mayan Dreams

Factory New

5 141.45 ₽ 14.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

M4A4 | Urban DDPAT

Factory New

2 100.33 ₽ 5.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

MAC-10 | Candy Apple

Factory New

38.19 ₽ 5.00%

Steam

at a loss

MAG-7 | Metallic DDPAT

Factory New

11.43 ₽ 5.00%

Steam

at a loss

P250 | Metallic DDPAT

Factory New

12.00 ₽ 5.00%

Steam

at a loss

P90 | Ash Wood

Factory New

19.71 ₽ 5.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

SCAR-20 | Carbon Fiber

Factory New

10.28 ₽ 5.00%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +610.79 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +5 018.64 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Alpha Collection and The Train Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 6 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1709989 · The Alpha Collection + The Lake Collection · profit 5 445.84₽ · invest 5 813.87₽
profit on prices without salesat least −5 721 ₽ rare inputs

G3SG1 | Jungle Dashed (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT (Factory New)
Craft 1709971 · The Alpha Collection + The Dust 2 Collection · profit 5 437.81₽ · invest 5 799.80₽
profit on prices without salesat least −5 798 ₽ rare inputs

G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT (Factory New)
Craft 1709987 · The Alpha Collection + The Italy Collection · profit 5 407.26₽ · invest 5 828.60₽
profit on prices without salesat least −5 802 ₽ rare inputs

Nova | Sand Dune (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT (Factory New)
Craft 1710003 · The Alpha Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 5 199.65₽ · invest 6 554.54₽
profit on prices without salesat least −6 328 ₽ rare inputs

Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT (Factory New)
Craft 1709958 · The Alpha Collection + The Boreal Collection · profit 4 738.96₽ · invest 4 840.84₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 833 ₽ rare inputs

G3SG1 | Green Cell (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT (Factory New); MP7 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear): 6 pcs instead of 7; MP7 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074006 instead of 0.074067
Craft 1709228 · The Achroma Collection + The Alpha Collection · profit 4 737.75₽ · invest 4 839.64₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 834 ₽ rare inputs

MP9 | Dizzy (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT (Factory New); MP7 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear): 6 pcs instead of 7; MP7 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074006 instead of 0.074067

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Alpha Collection + The Train Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 11 outcomes

More

How to build