Classified → Covert
About the craftCraft 1710638 · ways to build: 2The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profitAverage profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment.+6 896.45₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam».15 246.00₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances.22 142.45₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment.+45.2%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input.55%
If buying now (with float)
invest at least 35 469.36₽
· profit at most −13 326.91₽
(at most -37.6%) · chance of profit at most 10%
An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.
!
The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
Souvenir AK-47 | Panthera onca (Battle-Scarred) × 15% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.169846.00 → 21267.36 ₽
XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested) × 95% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.635400.00 → 14202.00 ₽
Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.
profit on prices without salesIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −6 516 ₽Which itemsIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −6 516 ₽: M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New), Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New)
!
Sell on a marketplace: CSFloat — outcomes: 1.
They have no price on Steam (above its price cap or nobody listed them); they are counted at the marketplace's cheapest listing minus its fee, ignoring pattern and float, — that is 10.0% of the probability. Money from the marketplace is real money you can withdraw, while the investment comes from the Steam balance. Without them (as zero, like before) the profit is -1 833.83 ₽.
Craft variants
Craft variants
The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.
Variant 1 this oneThe Ancient Collection + The Prisma Collection
+6 896.45 ₽+45.2%chance of profit 55%
expensive: M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)
· 87 302.75 ₽
· chance 10%
profit on prices without salesat least −6 516 ₽marketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 2 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
Variant 2The Kilowatt Collection instead of The Prisma Collection
+4 340.26 ₽+8.8%chance of profit 40%
expensive: M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)
· 122 978.52 ₽
· chance 40%
продажа ненадёжнаmarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
4× P90 | Run and Hide (Field-Tested)buy0.1500–0.1648
6× Zeus x27 | Olympus (Factory New)buy0.0000–0.0045
Variant 3The Fracture Collection instead of The Prisma Collection
+3 753.77 ₽+7.7%chance of profit 40%
expensive: M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)
· 122 978.52 ₽
· chance 40%
продажа ненадёжнаmarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
4× P90 | Run and Hide (Field-Tested)buy0.1500–0.1630
Variant 4The Fever Collection instead of The Prisma Collection
+3 052.49 ₽+16.4%chance of profit 10%
expensive: M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)
· 122 978.52 ₽
· chance 10%
marketplace pricesells slowly45% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.float out of reachThere are enough lots, but the needed float can't be reached with them: the craft can't be put together with the promised wears right now.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
1× P90 | Run and Hide (Field-Tested)buy0.1500–0.1648
Variant 5The Recoil Collection instead of The Prisma Collection
+3 030.45 ₽+6.0%chance of profit 40%
expensive: M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)
· 122 978.52 ₽
· chance 40%
marketplace pricerare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
4× P90 | Run and Hide (Field-Tested)buy0.1500–0.1651
6× P250 | Visions (Factory New)buy0.0000–0.0046
Variant 6The Revolution Collection instead of The Prisma Collection
+3 003.30 ₽+5.9%chance of profit 40%
expensive: M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)
· 122 978.52 ₽
· chance 40%
продажа ненадёжнаmarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly30% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
4× P90 | Run and Hide (Field-Tested)buy0.1500–0.1659
6× AWP | Duality (Factory New)buy0.0000–0.0048
How to build
Ways to build
2 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.
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5% of lots fitcollecting: no data
Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new per day — can't tell yet · little data: 0.0 d.
×9
XM1014 | Incinegator
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1624
(0% of this wear's listings)
5 400.00 ₽
at 600.00
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.162402f′ (normalized) 0.043926wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 202 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 2 852.16 ₽
Set · 10 pcs15 246.00 ₽
+6 896.45
(+45.2%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.087499900result 0.061250, 0.070000, 0.087500«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −9 130 ₽
!
6% of lots fitcollecting: no data
Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new per day — can't tell yet · little data: 0.0 d.
×1
P90 | Run and Hide
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1628
(under 1% of this wear's listings)
11 286.90 ₽
at 11 286.90
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.162809f′ (normalized) 0.162809wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 2 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
×4
XM1014 | Incinegator
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1628
(0% of this wear's listings)
2 400.00 ₽
at 600.00
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.162809f′ (normalized) 0.044725wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 202 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 2 852.16 ₽
×4
R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher
Field-Tested
buy0.2500–0.2572
(under 1% of this wear's listings)
3 057.64 ₽
at 764.41
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.257240f′ (normalized) 0.013164wear 0.2500–0.3800on the market 143 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~1,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 9 372.10 ₽
Set · 10 pcs26 590.54 ₽
+2 791.94
(+10.5%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.087499900result 0.061250, 0.070000, 0.087500«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
sell now to a buy order: 8 489.49 ₽
(you get 7 382.16)) · buy orders: 2511
sell on Market.CSGO: 7 295.98 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 7 999.98 · lots 13
on CSFloat: from 6 672.77 ₽listings: 51
on CS.Money: ~ 7 405.14 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 7 076.22 ₽listings: 112
in profit
M4A4 | The Emperor
Factory New
25 420.55 ₽45.00%
price without deals
SteamM4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New)net 22104.83you get 0.070000The Prisma Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 25 103.19 ₽
(you get 21 828.86)) · buy orders: 685
sell on Market.CSGO: 19 152.61 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 21 000.67 · lots 11
on CSFloat: from 18 502.15 ₽listings: 75
on CS.Money: ~ 19 872.68 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 19 291.92 ₽listings: 150
in profit
best
M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle
Minimal Wear
89 084.44 ₽10.00%
sell on CSFloat
SteamM4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)net 87302.75you get 0.087500no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 89 084.44 ₽listings 34 · you get 87 302.75 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternsell now to a buy order: 93 953.35 ₽
(you get 81 698.56)) · buy orders: 228
sell on Market.CSGO: 104 608.98 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 114 702.83 · lots 5
on CSFloat: from 89 084.44 ₽listings: 34
on CS.Money: ~ 97 937.21 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 95 125.91 ₽listings: 32
More
In a week, when the outcome can be sold
from outcome price history
In a bad week+5 398.17 ₽a worse week happens one time in ten
In a typical week+6 634.49 ₽historical median
If you repeat
10 000 simulations over the outcome odds
I already have items
enter their float — I'll pick what to buy
Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Ancient Collection and The Prisma Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.
Third collection
add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more
All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.
How to read these numbers
«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.
f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.
Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.
The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.
Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.
