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The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Bravo Collection

StatTrak™ Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +2 873.58₽

Invest 13 799.04₽

Average return 16 672.62₽

ROI +20.8%

Chance of profit 35%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 31 445.02₽ · profit at most −14 772.41₽ (at most -47.0%) · chance of profit at most 35%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

StatTrak™ P250 | Hive (Factory New) × 3 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.26 1723.02 → 3894.03 ₽

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Wave Spray (Minimal Wear) × 5 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.47 3319.20 → 8198.42 ₽

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Bone Pile (Factory New) × 2 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.21 8756.82 → 19352.57 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −13 519 ₽

The gain is understated. 1 outcomes have no price on Steam — they're above its cap and aren't listed. The calculation counts them as zero; they carry 17.5% of the probability.

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Bravo Collection

+2 873.58 ₽ +20.8% chance of profit 35%

expensive: StatTrak™ USP-S | Overgrowth (Factory New) · 44 209.52 ₽ · chance 18%

profit on prices without salesat least −13 519 ₽

3× StatTrak™ P250 | Hive (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0036
5× StatTrak™ SG 553 | Wave Spray (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741
2× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Bone Pile (Factory New) buy 0.0600–0.0605

Variant 2 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Arms Deal 2 Collection

+11 151.29 ₽ +219.1% chance of profit 54%

expensive: StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 49 848.43 ₽ · chance 12%

profit on prices without salesat least −4 810 ₽

4× StatTrak™ SG 553 | Wave Spray (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0745
6× StatTrak™ XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0839

Variant 3 The Falchion Collection instead of The Arms Deal 2 Collection

+9 716.91 ₽ +216.5% chance of profit 53%

expensive: StatTrak™ USP-S | Overgrowth (Factory New) · 44 209.52 ₽ · chance 15%

profit on prices without salesat least −4 256 ₽

6× StatTrak™ SG 553 | Wave Spray (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741
4× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0036

Variant 4 The Kilowatt Collection instead of The Arms Deal 2 Collection

+9 380.70 ₽ +226.1% chance of profit 45%

expensive: StatTrak™ USP-S | Overgrowth (Factory New) · 44 209.52 ₽ · chance 15%

profit on prices without salesat least −3 989 ₽

6× StatTrak™ SG 553 | Wave Spray (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741
4× StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0036

Variant 5 The Dreams & Nightmares Collection instead of The Arms Deal 2 Collection

+9 375.17 ₽ +228.8% chance of profit 45%

expensive: StatTrak™ USP-S | Overgrowth (Factory New) · 44 209.52 ₽ · chance 15%

profit on prices without salesat least −3 994 ₽

6× StatTrak™ SG 553 | Wave Spray (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741
4× StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Foresight (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0036

Variant 6 The Dead Hand Collection instead of The Arms Deal 2 Collection

+9 361.05 ₽ +211.7% chance of profit 45%

expensive: StatTrak™ USP-S | Overgrowth (Factory New) · 44 209.52 ₽ · chance 15%

profit on prices without salesat least −4 009 ₽

6× StatTrak™ SG 553 | Wave Spray (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0746
4× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0040

How to build

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

×3

StatTrak™ P250 | Hive

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0036

1 723.02 ₽

at 574.34

Steam

×5

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Wave Spray

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

3 319.20 ₽

at 663.84

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Bone Pile

Factory New

buy 0.0600–0.0605

8 756.82 ₽

at 4 378.41

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 13 799.04 ₽ +2 873.58 (+20.8%)

The gain is understated, noticeably. 1 outcomes have no price on Steam — they're above its cap. The calculation counts them as zero, so the profit shown is a lower bound. Such outcomes carry 20% of the probability.

profit on prices without sales at least −17 416 ₽

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

×2

StatTrak™ P250 | Hive

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0042

1 148.68 ₽

at 574.34

Steam

×5

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Wave Spray

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0748

3 319.20 ₽

at 663.84

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Bone Pile

Factory New

buy 0.0600–0.0606

13 135.23 ₽

at 4 378.41

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 17 603.11 ₽ +939.55 (+5.3%)

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

×5

StatTrak™ P250 | Hive

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0042

2 871.70 ₽

at 574.34

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Wave Spray

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0748

1 991.52 ₽

at 663.84

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Bone Pile

Factory New

buy 0.0600–0.0606

8 756.82 ₽

at 4 378.41

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 13 620.04 ₽ -687.52 (-5.0%)

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

×7

StatTrak™ P250 | Hive

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0040

4 020.38 ₽

at 574.34

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Wave Spray

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0745

1 327.68 ₽

at 663.84

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Bone Pile

Factory New

buy 0.0600–0.0605

4 378.41 ₽

at 4 378.41

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 9 726.47 ₽ -534.05 (-5.5%)

profit on prices without sales at least −13 336 ₽

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

×4

StatTrak™ P250 | Hive

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0039

2 297.36 ₽

at 574.34

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Wave Spray

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0745

2 655.36 ₽

at 663.84

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Bone Pile

Factory New

buy 0.0600–0.0605

8 756.82 ₽

at 4 378.41

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 13 709.54 ₽ +1 093.03 (+8.0%)

What you get 8 outcomes

Profitable outcome 35%
Losing outcome 48%
Above the Steam cap 18%

at a loss

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Bright Water

Minimal Wear

7 227.99 ₽ 17.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Zirka

Factory New

44 431.76 ₽ 17.50%

price without deals

Steam

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Graven

Factory New

not on Steam — above the cap 17.50%

Steam

in profit

best

StatTrak™ USP-S | Overgrowth

Factory New

50 840.95 ₽ 17.50%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin

Factory New

3 245.08 ₽ 7.50%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Case Hardened

Factory New

8 938.53 ₽ 7.50%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ MP9 | Hypnotic

Factory New

2 739.56 ₽ 7.50%

Steam

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ Nova | Graphite

Factory New

1 555.31 ₽ 7.50%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +217.87 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +2 701.65 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Arms Deal 2 Collection and The Bravo Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Bravo Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 8 outcomes

More

How to build