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The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Horizon Collection

Restricted → Classified

Average profit · by float −15 225.16₽ by average prices it would be +1 608.46

Invest 23 305.69₽

Average return 8 080.53₽

ROI −65.3% market check 2026-10-06 05:15

Chance of profit 0%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 13 603.21₽ · profit at most −6 423.21₽ (at most -47.2%) · chance of profit at most 30%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

Nova | Graphite (Factory New) × 1 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 900.00 → 1944.00 ₽

MP7 | Powercore (Field-Tested) × 3 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.26 265.44 → 599.89 ₽

AWP | PAW (Factory New) × 6 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.51 4406.10 → 11059.31 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Horizon Collection

+1 608.46 ₽ +28.9% chance of profit 35%

expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 17 915.19 ₽ · chance 30%

sells slowly

1× Nova | Graphite (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0042
3× MP7 | Powercore (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1638
6× AWP | PAW (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0042

Variant 2 The Spectrum 2 Collection instead of The Arms Deal 2 Collection

+2 628.21 ₽ +155.1% chance of profit 67%

expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 17 915.19 ₽ · chance 13%

sells slowly

4× Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1636
6× UMP-45 | Exposure (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0041

Variant 3 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Arms Deal 2 Collection

+2 510.39 ₽ +70.5% chance of profit 33%

expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 17 915.19 ₽ · chance 17%

sells slowly

4× Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1616
1× AWP | PAW (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0035
5× USP-S | Guardian (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0035

Variant 4 The Revolution Collection instead of The Arms Deal 2 Collection

+2 498.21 ₽ +59.9% chance of profit 30%

expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 17 915.19 ₽ · chance 30%

sells slowly

4× Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1620
5× AWP | PAW (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0036
1× MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested) buy 0.2100–0.2188

Variant 5 The Radiant Collection instead of The Arms Deal 2 Collection

+2 479.91 ₽ +65.4% chance of profit 73%

expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 17 915.19 ₽ · chance 13%

sells slowly

4× Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1648
6× M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0045

Variant 6 only The Horizon Collection

+2 464.21 ₽ +51.1% chance of profit 33%

expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 17 915.19 ₽ · chance 33%

sells slowly

4× Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1630
6× AWP | PAW (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039

How to build

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

Nova | Graphite

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0042

900.00 ₽

at 900.00

Steam

×3

MP7 | Powercore

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1638

265.44 ₽

at 88.48

Steam

×6

AWP | PAW

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0042

4 406.10 ₽

at 734.35

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 5 571.54 ₽ +1 608.46 (+28.9%)

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×3

Nova | Graphite

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0058

2 700.00 ₽

at 900.00

Steam

×3

Nova | Toy Soldier

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1691

311.58 ₽

at 103.86

Steam

×4

AWP | PAW

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0058

2 937.40 ₽

at 734.35

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 5 948.98 ₽ +1 019.50 (+17.1%)

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×4

Nova | Graphite

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0050

3 600.00 ₽

at 900.00

Steam

×3

Nova | Toy Soldier

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1666

311.58 ₽

at 103.86

Steam

×3

AWP | PAW

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0050

2 203.05 ₽

at 734.35

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 6 114.63 ₽ +748.10 (+12.2%)

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×5

Nova | Graphite

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0045

4 500.00 ₽

at 900.00

Steam

×3

Nova | Toy Soldier

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1647

311.58 ₽

at 103.86

Steam

×2

AWP | PAW

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0045

1 468.70 ₽

at 734.35

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 6 280.28 ₽ +476.69 (+7.6%)

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×6

Nova | Graphite

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0040

5 400.00 ₽

at 900.00

Steam

×3

Nova | Toy Soldier

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1632

311.58 ₽

at 103.86

Steam

×1

AWP | PAW

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0040

734.35 ₽

at 734.35

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 6 445.93 ₽ +205.28 (+3.2%)

What you get 5 outcomes

Profitable outcome 35%
Losing outcome 65%

at a loss

FAMAS | Eye of Athena

Factory New

2 902.32 ₽ 30.00%

Steam

in profit

best

M4A1-S | Nightmare

Factory New

20 602.47 ₽ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Sawed-Off | Devourer

Factory New

1 631.06 ₽ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

P90 | Cold Blooded

Factory New

4 727.83 ₽ 5.00%

Steam

in profit

USP-S | Serum

Factory New

9 597.00 ₽ 5.00%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +127.59 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +1 240.69 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Arms Deal 2 Collection and The Horizon Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Market check at night · fresher — with «Check floats on Steam»

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Horizon Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 5 outcomes

More

How to build