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The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Overpass 2024 Collection

Restricted → Classified

Average profit +846.27₽

Invest 4 739.52₽

Average return 5 585.79₽

ROI +17.9%

Chance of profit 50%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 11 286.62₽ · profit at most −5 700.82₽ (at most -50.5%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

Nova | Graphite (Factory New) × 1 9% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 900.00 → 1944.00 ₽

AUG | Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear) × 7 9% of the wear window fits at least ×2.55 2521.40 → 6429.57 ₽

XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New) × 2 9% of the wear window fits at least ×2.21 1318.12 → 2913.05 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Overpass 2024 Collection

+846.27 ₽ +17.9% chance of profit 50%

expensive: USP-S | Serum (Factory New) · 8 345.22 ₽ · chance 5.0%

sells slowly

1× Nova | Graphite (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0060
7× AUG | Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0769
2× XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0060

Variant 2 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Arms Deal 2 Collection

+2 119.11 ₽ +40.0% chance of profit 95%

expensive: M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Factory New) · 7 902.74 ₽ · chance 45%

sells slowly

1× XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0060
9× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0768

Variant 3 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Overpass 2024 Collection

+1 949.55 ₽ +35.2% chance of profit 95%

expensive: USP-S | Serum (Factory New) · 8 345.22 ₽ · chance 5.0%

sells slowly

1× Nova | Graphite (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0037
9× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0742

Variant 4 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Arms Deal 2 Collection

+1 767.22 ₽ +59.2% chance of profit 40%

expensive: AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) · 12 694.23 ₽ · chance 30%

sells slowly

1× XM1014 | Monster Melt (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1617
9× FAMAS | Sergeant (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1617

Variant 5 The Horizon Collection instead of The Overpass 2024 Collection

+1 608.46 ₽ +28.9% chance of profit 35%

expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 17 915.19 ₽ · chance 30%

sells slowly

1× Nova | Graphite (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0042
3× MP7 | Powercore (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1638
6× AWP | PAW (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0042

Variant 6 The Spectrum 2 Collection instead of The Arms Deal 2 Collection

+1 570.30 ₽ +65.3% chance of profit 80%

expensive: AWP | Crakow! (Factory New) · 7 174.07 ₽ · chance 20%

sells slowly

2× AUG | Eye of Zapems (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1622
2× AUG | Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0742
6× UMP-45 | Exposure (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0037

How to build

9% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 9% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

Nova | Graphite

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0060

900.00 ₽

at 900.00

Steam

×7

AUG | Eye of Zapems

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0769

2 521.40 ₽

at 360.20

Steam

×2

XM1014 | Monster Melt

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0060

1 318.12 ₽

at 659.06

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 4 739.52 ₽ +846.27 (+17.9%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 50%
Losing outcome 50%

in profit

AWP | Crakow!

Factory New

8 250.18 ₽ 45.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Zeus x27 | Dragon Snore

Factory New

4 432.98 ₽ 45.00%

Steam

at a loss

P90 | Cold Blooded

Factory New

4 727.83 ₽ 5.00%

Steam

in profit

best

USP-S | Serum

Factory New

9 597.00 ₽ 5.00%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +106.06 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +688.91 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Arms Deal 2 Collection and The Overpass 2024 Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 4 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1726953 · The Dust 2 Collection + The Overpass 2024 Collection · profit 929.75₽ · invest 4 058.77₽
sells slowly rare inputs

P2000 | Amber Fade (Factory New) instead of Nova | Graphite (Factory New); AUG | Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.079683 instead of 0.076916; XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New): float at most 0.008473 instead of 0.006051
Craft 1713838 · The Ascent Collection + The Overpass 2024 Collection · profit 928.07₽ · invest 4 335.98₽
sells slowly rare inputs

USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New) instead of Nova | Graphite (Factory New); AUG | Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.080270 instead of 0.076916; XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New): float at most 0.008987 instead of 0.006051
Craft 1738820 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection · profit 912.18₽ · invest 4 504.52₽
sells slowly rare inputs

Dual Berettas | Marina (Minimal Wear) instead of Nova | Graphite (Factory New); AUG | Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076182 instead of 0.076916; XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New): float at most 0.005409 instead of 0.006051
Craft 1738841 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 867.55₽ · invest 4 321.25₽
sells slowly rare inputs

P90 | Virus (Minimal Wear) instead of Nova | Graphite (Factory New); AUG | Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.079229 instead of 0.076916; XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New): float at most 0.008075 instead of 0.006051

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Overpass 2024 Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 4 outcomes

More

How to build