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The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Spy Tech Collection

Restricted → Classified

Average profit +22.76$

Invest 64.62$

Average return 87.38$

ROI +35.2%

Chance of profit 95%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 165.01$ · profit at most −77.63$ (at most -47.0%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

Nova | Graphite (Factory New) × 1 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 10.51 → 22.69 $

CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) × 9 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.63 54.11 → 142.31 $

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Spy Tech Collection

+22.76 $ +35.2% chance of profit 95%

expensive: USP-S | Serum (Factory New) · 97.42 $ · chance 5.0%

sells slowly

1× Nova | Graphite (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0037
9× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0742

Variant 2 The Wildfire Collection instead of The Arms Deal 2 Collection

+25.23 $ +41.7% chance of profit 97%

expensive: M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Factory New) · 92.26 $ · chance 45%

sells slowly

9× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0763
1× MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0055

Variant 3 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Arms Deal 2 Collection

+23.01 $ +38.5% chance of profit 90%

expensive: M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Factory New) · 92.26 $ · chance 45%

sells slowly

9× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0754
1× P90 | Virus (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0754

Variant 4 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Arms Deal 2 Collection

+21.80 $ +35.6% chance of profit 90%

expensive: M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Factory New) · 92.26 $ · chance 45%

sells slowly

9× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0770
1× Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0062

Variant 5 only The Spy Tech Collection

+21.74 $ +32.3% chance of profit 100%

expensive: M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Factory New) · 92.26 $ · chance 50%

sells slowly

9× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0770
1× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0062

Variant 6 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The Arms Deal 2 Collection

+21.59 $ +33.8% chance of profit 97%

expensive: M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Factory New) · 92.26 $ · chance 45%

sells slowly

9× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0765
1× Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0056

How to build

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

Nova | Graphite

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0037

10.51 $

at 10.51

Steam

×9

CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

54.11 $

at 6.01

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 64.62 $ +22.76 (+35.2%)

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×4

Nova | Graphite

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0047

42.03 $

at 10.51

Steam

×1

Nova | Smart Gun

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1655

3.72 $

at 3.72

Steam

×5

CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0753

30.06 $

at 6.01

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 75.81 $ +6.68 (+8.8%)

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×3

Nova | Graphite

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0036

31.52 $

at 10.51

Steam

×1

Nova | Smart Gun

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1621

3.72 $

at 3.72

Steam

×6

CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

36.07 $

at 6.01

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 71.32 $ +12.80 (+17.9%)

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×5

Nova | Graphite

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0036

52.53 $

at 10.51

Steam

×2

Nova | Smart Gun

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1620

7.45 $

at 3.72

Steam

×3

CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

18.04 $

at 6.01

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 78.02 $ +2.84 (+3.6%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 95%
Losing outcome 5%

in profit

M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch

Factory New

106.10 $ 45.00%

Steam

in profit

USP-S | Spiral Glitch

Factory New

98.62 $ 45.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

P90 | Cold Blooded

Factory New

55.19 $ 5.00%

Steam

in profit

best

USP-S | Serum

Factory New

112.04 $ 5.00%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +14.33 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +18.51 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Arms Deal 2 Collection and The Spy Tech Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 6 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1727075 · The Dust 2 Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 23.73$ · invest 56.67$
sells slowly rare inputs

P2000 | Amber Fade (Factory New) instead of Nova | Graphite (Factory New); CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076256 instead of 0.074296
Craft 1714043 · The Ascent Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 23.71$ · invest 59.91$
sells slowly rare inputs

USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New) instead of Nova | Graphite (Factory New); CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076693 instead of 0.074296
Craft 1742009 · The Shadow Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 23.55$ · invest 59.74$
sells slowly rare inputs

MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New) instead of Nova | Graphite (Factory New); CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076723 instead of 0.074296
Craft 1742984 · The Spy Tech Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 23.01$ · invest 59.73$
sells slowly rare inputs

P90 | Virus (Minimal Wear) instead of Nova | Graphite (Factory New); CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075456 instead of 0.074296
Craft 1742955 · The Spy Tech Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 21.80$ · invest 61.30$
sells slowly rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Factory New) instead of Nova | Graphite (Factory New); CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077088 instead of 0.074296
Craft 1742970 · The Spy Tech Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection · profit 21.59$ · invest 63.81$
sells slowly rare inputs

Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New) instead of Nova | Graphite (Factory New); CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076511 instead of 0.074296

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Spy Tech Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 4 outcomes

More

How to build