The Arms Deal 2 Collection
+ The Wildfire Collection
StatTrak™
Classified → Covert
About the craftCraft 1712675 · ways to build: 5StatTrak™ craft. Inputs and outcome are StatTrak: a normal item won't do here, and the outcome sells at the StatTrak price, not at the price of its normal counterpart.The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profitAverage profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment.+21 516.62₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam».46 754.47₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances.68 271.09₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment.+46.0%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input.55%
If buying now (with float)
invest at least 114 714.19₽
· profit at most −46 443.10₽
(at most -40.5%) · chance of profit at most 45%
An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.
!
The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
StatTrak™ P90 | Cold Blooded (Factory New) × 19% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.167522.53 → 16248.66 ₽
StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) × 89% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.5931917.52 → 82666.38 ₽
StatTrak™ Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New) × 19% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.167314.42 → 15799.15 ₽
Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.
profit on prices without salesIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −46 754 ₽Which itemsIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −46 754 ₽: StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New), StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New), StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New)
Craft variants
Craft variants
The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.
marketplace pricesells slowly55% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
продажа ненадёжнаmarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly55% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.float out of reachThere are enough lots, but the needed float can't be reached with them: the craft can't be put together with the promised wears right now.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
marketplace pricesells slowly55% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
1× StatTrak™ Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New)buy0.0000–0.0058
How to build
Ways to build
5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.
!
9% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (by listings)
Price understated: only 9% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×1
StatTrak™ P90 | Cold Blooded
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0060
(0% of this wear's listings)
7 522.53 ₽
at 7 522.53
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.006006f′ (normalized) 0.075076wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 14 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: suitable 3 of 61 · from 8 391.93 ₽ (float 0.0047) · craft not before 15.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×8
StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0768
(0% of this wear's listings)
31 917.52 ₽
at 3 989.69
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.076864f′ (normalized) 0.076864wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 24 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · little data: 2.0 d.
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 44) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×1
StatTrak™ Nova | Hyper Beast
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0060
(0% of this wear's listings)
7 314.42 ₽
at 7 314.42
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.006006f′ (normalized) 0.010010wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 12 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · little data: 1.0 d.
Lis-Skins: suitable 2 of 36 · from 13 754.98 ₽ (float 0.0049) · craft not before 15.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs46 754.47 ₽
+21 516.62
(+46.0%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.069999900result 0.070000, 0.044800, 0.069800«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −54 028 ₽
!
7% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (by listings)
Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×4
StatTrak™ P90 | Cold Blooded
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0049
(0% of this wear's listings)
30 090.12 ₽
at 7 522.53
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004924f′ (normalized) 0.061557wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 14 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: suitable 3 of 61 · from 8 391.93 ₽ (float 0.0047) · craft not before 15.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×6
StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0756
(0% of this wear's listings)
23 938.14 ₽
at 3 989.69
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.075628f′ (normalized) 0.075628wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 24 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · little data: 2.0 d.
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 44) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs54 028.26 ₽
+13 661.16
(+25.3%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.069999900result 0.069800, 0.070000, 0.044800«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −50 495 ₽
!
7% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (by listings)
Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×3
StatTrak™ P90 | Cold Blooded
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0046
(0% of this wear's listings)
22 567.59 ₽
at 7 522.53
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004615f′ (normalized) 0.057692wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 14 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: suitable 2 of 61 · from 8 501.57 ₽ (float 0.0041) · craft not before 15.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×7
StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0752
(0% of this wear's listings)
27 927.83 ₽
at 3 989.69
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.075274f′ (normalized) 0.075274wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 24 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · little data: 2.0 d.
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 44) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs50 495.42 ₽
+17 387.89
(+34.4%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.069999900result 0.070000, 0.044800, 0.069800«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −63 137 ₽
!
6% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (by listings)
Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×7
StatTrak™ P90 | Cold Blooded
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0044
(0% of this wear's listings)
52 657.71 ₽
at 7 522.53
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004405f′ (normalized) 0.055065wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 14 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: suitable 2 of 61 · from 8 501.57 ₽ (float 0.0041) · craft not before 15.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×1
StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1644
(0% of this wear's listings)
2 500.00 ₽
at 2 500.00
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.164474f′ (normalized) 0.164474wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 28 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: suitable 1 of 57 · from 3 425.47 ₽ (float 0.1640) · craft not before 15.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×2
StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0750
(0% of this wear's listings)
7 979.38 ₽
at 3 989.69
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.075034f′ (normalized) 0.075034wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 24 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · little data: 2.0 d.
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 44) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs63 137.09 ₽
+3 970.66
(+6.3%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.069999900result 0.069800, 0.070000, 0.044800«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −59 604 ₽
!
6% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (by listings)
Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×6
StatTrak™ P90 | Cold Blooded
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0041
(0% of this wear's listings)
45 135.18 ₽
at 7 522.53
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004160f′ (normalized) 0.052010wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 14 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: suitable 2 of 61 · from 8 501.57 ₽ (float 0.0041) · craft not before 15.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×1
StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1636
(0% of this wear's listings)
2 500.00 ₽
at 2 500.00
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.163671f′ (normalized) 0.163671wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 28 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 57) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×3
StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0747
(0% of this wear's listings)
11 969.07 ₽
at 3 989.69
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.074755f′ (normalized) 0.074755wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 24 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · little data: 2.0 d.
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 44) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs59 604.25 ₽
+7 697.39
(+12.9%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.069999900result 0.069800, 0.070000, 0.044800«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
no buy orders
sell on Market.CSGO: 68 904.47 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 75 553.15 · lots 4
on CSFloat: from 66 385.04 ₽listings: 26
on CS.Money: ~ 67 868.64 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 64 833.77 ₽listings: 41
at a loss
worst
StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar
Factory New
10 023.81 ₽45.00%
price without deals
SteamStatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New)net 8716.36you get 0.044800The Wildfire Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 6 920.30 ₽
(you get 6 017.65)) · buy orders: 823
sell on Market.CSGO: 8 348.27 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 9 153.81 · lots 8
on CSFloat: from 7 143.03 ₽listings: 22
on CS.Money: ~ 7 261.24 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 7 343.47 ₽listings: 37
in profit
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Blood in the Water
Factory New
76 504.99 ₽10.00%
price without deals
SteamStatTrak™ SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New)net 66526.08you get 0.069800
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 52 593.14 ₽
(you get 45 733.16)) · buy orders: 365Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price
on CSFloat: from 49 575.49 ₽listings: 11
on CS.Money: ~ 50 289.03 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 49 697.13 ₽listings: 11
More
In a week, when the outcome can be sold
from outcome price history
In a bad week+11 628.32 ₽a worse week happens one time in ten
In a typical week+20 995.82 ₽historical median
If you repeat
10 000 simulations over the outcome odds
I already have items
enter their float — I'll pick what to buy
Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Arms Deal 2 Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.
Third collection
add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more
All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.
Similar
1 craft almost like this one
The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.
Craft 1743185
· The Wildfire Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection · profit 21 530.85₽
· invest 43 473.20₽
profit on prices without salesat least −43 473 ₽rare inputs
StatTrak™ P250 | Mehndi (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ P90 | Cold Blooded (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076693 instead of 0.076864; StatTrak™ Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New): float at most 0.005856 instead of 0.006006
How to read these numbers
«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.
f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.
Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.
The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.
Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.
