to all crafts

The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection

StatTrak™ Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +3 552.34₽

Invest 19 725.42₽

Average return 23 277.76₽

ROI +18.0%

Chance of profit 47%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 44 020.46₽ · profit at most −20 742.70₽ (at most -47.1%) · chance of profit at most 23%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

StatTrak™ P250 | Hive (Factory New) × 3 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.26 1723.02 → 3894.03 ₽

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New) × 6 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.51 3546.42 → 8901.51 ₽

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Faded Zebra (Factory New) × 1 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 14455.98 → 31224.92 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −19 445 ₽

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection

+3 552.34 ₽ +18.0% chance of profit 47%

expensive: StatTrak™ Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New) · 46 304.35 ₽ · chance 23%

profit on prices without salesat least −19 445 ₽

3× StatTrak™ P250 | Hive (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0036
6× StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New) buy 0.0200–0.0226
1× StatTrak™ M4A4 | Faded Zebra (Factory New) buy 0.0600–0.0605

Variant 2 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Arms Deal 2 Collection

+13 904.74 ₽ +334.3% chance of profit 58%

expensive: StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 49 848.43 ₽ · chance 14%

profit on prices without salesat least −3 833 ₽

3× StatTrak™ FAMAS | Doomkitty (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0835
7× StatTrak™ XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0835

Variant 3 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection

+7 124.21 ₽ +168.6% chance of profit 38%

expensive: StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 49 848.43 ₽ · chance 18%

profit on prices without salesat least −3 712 ₽

1× StatTrak™ P250 | Hive (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0054
9× StatTrak™ XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0854

Variant 4 The Bravo Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection

+6 496.43 ₽ +108.1% chance of profit 48%

expensive: StatTrak™ M4A4 | Zirka (Factory New) · 38 636.31 ₽ · chance 22%

profit on prices without salesat least −5 916 ₽

1× StatTrak™ P250 | Hive (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0036
3× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Bone Pile (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741
6× StatTrak™ SG 553 | Wave Spray (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741

Variant 5 The eSports 2013 Winter Collection instead of The Arms Deal 2 Collection

+3 803.50 ₽ +19.8% chance of profit 47%

expensive: StatTrak™ Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New) · 46 304.35 ₽ · chance 23%

profit on prices without salesat least −18 601 ₽

6× StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New) buy 0.0200–0.0225
1× StatTrak™ M4A4 | Faded Zebra (Factory New) buy 0.0600–0.0605
3× StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0035

Variant 6 only The eSports 2013 Collection

+1 086.76 ₽ +24.9% chance of profit 100%

expensive: StatTrak™ P250 | Splash (Factory New) · 7 468.03 ₽ · chance 33%

profit on prices without salesat least −4 358 ₽

1× StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Memento (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0783
9× StatTrak™ FAMAS | Doomkitty (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0872

How to build

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×3

StatTrak™ P250 | Hive

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0036

1 723.02 ₽

at 574.34

Steam

×6

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Memento

Factory New

buy 0.0200–0.0226

3 546.42 ₽

at 591.07

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Faded Zebra

Factory New

buy 0.0600–0.0605

14 455.98 ₽

at 14 455.98

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 19 725.42 ₽ +3 552.34 (+18.0%)

profit on prices without sales at least −19 335 ₽

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×4

StatTrak™ P250 | Hive

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0037

2 297.36 ₽

at 574.34

Steam

×5

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Memento

Factory New

buy 0.0200–0.0226

2 955.35 ₽

at 591.07

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Faded Zebra

Factory New

buy 0.0600–0.0605

14 455.98 ₽

at 14 455.98

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 19 708.69 ₽ +755.43 (+3.8%)

What you get 7 outcomes

Profitable outcome 47%
Losing outcome 53%

in profit

best

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Orange DDPAT

Factory New

53 250.00 ₽ 23.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ P250 | Splash

Factory New

8 588.23 ₽ 23.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Orange DDPAT

Factory New

47 591.20 ₽ 23.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin

Factory New

3 245.08 ₽ 7.50%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Case Hardened

Factory New

8 938.53 ₽ 7.50%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ MP9 | Hypnotic

Factory New

2 739.56 ₽ 7.50%

Steam

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ Nova | Graphite

Factory New

1 555.31 ₽ 7.50%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +3 104.71 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +3 353.78 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Arms Deal 2 Collection and The eSports 2013 Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1743254 · The eSports 2013 Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 3 803.50₽ · invest 19 219.26₽
profit on prices without salesat least −18 601 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ P250 | Hive (Factory New); StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022560 instead of 0.022610; StatTrak™ M4A4 | Faded Zebra (Factory New): float at most 0.060512 instead of 0.060522

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 3 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 7 outcomes

More

How to build