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The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Falchion Collection

StatTrak™ Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +3 789.69₸

Invest 7 474.63₸

Average return 11 264.31₸

ROI +50.7%

Chance of profit 41%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 18 963.89₸ · profit at most −7 699.63₸ (at most -40.6%) · chance of profit at most 20%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) × 1 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 1477.35 → 3191.08 ₸

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) × 9 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.63 5997.27 → 15772.83 ₸

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −4 480 ₸

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Falchion Collection

+3 789.67 ₸ +50.7% chance of profit 41%

expensive: StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth (Minimal Wear) · 32 713.33 ₸ · chance 18%

profit on prices without salesat least −4 480 ₸

1× StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1641
9× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0043

Variant 2 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Arms Deal 3 Collection

+60 248.69 ₸ +453.6% chance of profit 52%

expensive: StatTrak™ Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New) · 244 226.26 ₸ · chance 13%

profit on prices without salesat least −11 444 ₸

6× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0036
4× StatTrak™ FAMAS | Doomkitty (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0836

Variant 3 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

+41 870.24 ₸ +126.4% chance of profit 40%

expensive: StatTrak™ Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New) · 244 226.26 ₸ · chance 13%

profit on prices without salesat least −31 697 ₸

6× StatTrak™ P2000 | Red FragCam (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0036
4× StatTrak™ FAMAS | Doomkitty (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0836

Variant 4 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Arms Deal 3 Collection

+39 151.11 ₸ +196.5% chance of profit 38%

expensive: StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 262 919.05 ₸ · chance 18%

profit on prices without salesat least −17 403 ₸

1× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0059
9× StatTrak™ XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0859

Variant 5 The Bravo Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

+38 998.30 ₸ +105.7% chance of profit 30%

expensive: StatTrak™ USP-S | Overgrowth (Factory New) · 233 177.35 ₸ · chance 15%

profit on prices without salesat least −35 951 ₸

4× StatTrak™ P2000 | Red FragCam (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0036
6× StatTrak™ SG 553 | Wave Spray (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741

Variant 6 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

+37 151.82 ₸ +167.6% chance of profit 38%

expensive: StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 262 919.05 ₸ · chance 18%

profit on prices without salesat least −19 715 ₸

1× StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0760
9× StatTrak™ XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0852

How to build

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1641

1 477.35 ₸

at 1 477.35

Steam

×9

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0043

5 997.27 ₸

at 666.36

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 7 474.63 ₸ +3 789.69 (+50.7%)

profit on prices without sales at least −7 346 ₸

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

StatTrak™ P2000 | Red FragCam

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0764

2 031.58 ₸

at 2 031.58

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0764

2 911.03 ₸

at 2 911.03

Steam

×8

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0056

5 330.91 ₸

at 666.36

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 10 273.52 ₸ +1 236.15 (+12.0%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 41%
Losing outcome 59%

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

3 310.62 ₸ 18.00%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

8 133.08 ₸ 18.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

10 838.25 ₸ 18.00%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

3 456.51 ₸ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

best

StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth

Minimal Wear

37 620.34 ₸ 18.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate

Factory New

3 800.34 ₸ 2.50%

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Heirloom

Factory New

37 390.32 ₸ 2.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy

Factory New

13 585.19 ₸ 2.50%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Titanium Bit

Factory New

7 198.62 ₸ 2.50%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +2 926.11 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +3 623.97 ₸ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Arms Deal 3 Collection and The Falchion Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 3 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1712474 · The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 3 804.92₸ · invest 8 001.54₸
profit on prices without salesat least −4 753 ₸ rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)
Craft 1727548 · The Falchion Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection · profit 3 615.51₸ · invest 8 595.27₸
profit on prices without salesat least −5 593 ₸ rare inputs

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Macabre (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.005379 instead of 0.004304
Craft 1728113 · The Falchion Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 3 481.45₸ · invest 7 500.47₸
profit on prices without salesat least −3 740 ₸ rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Falchion Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 2 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 9 outcomes

More

How to build