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The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Horizon Collection

Restricted → Classified

Average profit +2 046.83₽

Invest 4 809.82₽

Average return 6 856.65₽

ROI +42.6%

Chance of profit 30%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 11 612.62₽ · profit at most −4 755.97₽ (at most -41.0%) · chance of profit at most 30%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Factory New) × 1 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 722.63 → 1560.88 ₽

Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) × 4 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.37 415.44 → 982.52 ₽

AWP | PAW (Factory New) × 5 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.47 3671.75 → 9069.22 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Horizon Collection

+2 046.83 ₽ +42.6% chance of profit 30%

expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 17 915.19 ₽ · chance 30%

sells slowly

1× CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0035
4× Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1616
5× AWP | PAW (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0035

Variant 2 The Spectrum 2 Collection instead of The Arms Deal 3 Collection

+2 628.21 ₽ +155.1% chance of profit 67%

expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 17 915.19 ₽ · chance 13%

sells slowly

4× Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1636
6× UMP-45 | Exposure (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0041

Variant 3 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Arms Deal 3 Collection

+2 510.39 ₽ +70.5% chance of profit 33%

expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 17 915.19 ₽ · chance 17%

sells slowly

4× Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1616
1× AWP | PAW (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0035
5× USP-S | Guardian (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0035

Variant 4 The Revolution Collection instead of The Arms Deal 3 Collection

+2 498.21 ₽ +59.9% chance of profit 30%

expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 17 915.19 ₽ · chance 30%

sells slowly

4× Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1620
5× AWP | PAW (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0036
1× MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested) buy 0.2100–0.2188

Variant 5 The Radiant Collection instead of The Arms Deal 3 Collection

+2 479.91 ₽ +65.4% chance of profit 73%

expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 17 915.19 ₽ · chance 13%

sells slowly

4× Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1648
6× M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0045

Variant 6 only The Horizon Collection

+2 464.21 ₽ +51.1% chance of profit 33%

expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 17 915.19 ₽ · chance 33%

sells slowly

4× Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1630
6× AWP | PAW (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039

How to build

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0035

722.63 ₽

at 722.63

Steam

×4

Nova | Toy Soldier

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1616

415.44 ₽

at 103.86

Steam

×5

AWP | PAW

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0035

3 671.75 ₽

at 734.35

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 4 809.82 ₽ +2 046.83 (+42.6%)

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×2

CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0042

1 445.26 ₽

at 722.63

Steam

×3

MP7 | Powercore

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1639

265.44 ₽

at 88.48

Steam

×5

AWP | PAW

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0042

3 671.75 ₽

at 734.35

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 5 382.45 ₽ +1 045.09 (+19.4%)

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×3

CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

2 167.89 ₽

at 722.63

Steam

×3

MP7 | Powercore

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1627

265.44 ₽

at 88.48

Steam

×4

AWP | PAW

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

2 937.40 ₽

at 734.35

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 5 370.73 ₽ +627.70 (+11.7%)

profit on prices without sales at least −295 ₽

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×4

CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

2 890.52 ₽

at 722.63

Steam

×5

G3SG1 | High Seas

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

1 970.55 ₽

at 394.11

Steam

×1

MP7 | Powercore

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

472.53 ₽

at 472.53

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 5 333.60 ₽ +235.73 (+4.4%)

What you get 5 outcomes

Profitable outcome 30%
Losing outcome 70%

at a loss

FAMAS | Eye of Athena

Factory New

2 902.32 ₽ 30.00%

Steam

in profit

best

M4A1-S | Nightmare

Factory New

20 602.47 ₽ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Sawed-Off | Devourer

Factory New

1 631.06 ₽ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now

Factory New

3 050.00 ₽ 5.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

P250 | Undertow

Factory New

3 837.77 ₽ 5.00%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +623.31 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +1 705.94 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Arms Deal 3 Collection and The Horizon Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 4 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1733845 · The Graphic Design Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 2 261.09₽ · invest 5 571.96₽
sells slowly float out of reach rare inputs

CZ75-Auto | Slalom (Factory New) instead of CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Factory New); Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163196 instead of 0.161675; AWP | PAW (Factory New): float at most 0.004016 instead of 0.003553
Craft 1735344 · The Horizon Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 2 214.08₽ · invest 4 568.92₽
sells slowly rare inputs

P90 | Virus (Minimal Wear) instead of CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Factory New); Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161510 instead of 0.161675; AWP | PAW (Factory New): float at most 0.003503 instead of 0.003553
Craft 1735261 · The Horizon Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 2 110.69₽ · invest 4 702.91₽
sells slowly rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Factory New) instead of CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Factory New); Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163609 instead of 0.161675; AWP | PAW (Factory New): float at most 0.004141 instead of 0.003553
Craft 1735301 · The Horizon Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection · profit 2 092.54₽ · invest 4 918.36₽
sells slowly rare inputs

Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New) instead of CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Factory New); Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163068 instead of 0.161675; AWP | PAW (Factory New): float at most 0.003977 instead of 0.003553

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Horizon Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 5 outcomes

More

How to build