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The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +1 098.14₴

Invest 2 522.54₴

Average return 3 620.68₴

ROI +43.5%

Chance of profit 85%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 6 153.22₴ · profit at most −2 532.55₴ (at most -41.2%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

Dual Berettas | Panther (Factory New) × 3 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.26 962.96 → 2176.30 ₴

MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New) × 7 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.55 1559.58 → 3976.93 ₴

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −2 446 ₴

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection

+1 098.14 ₴ +43.5% chance of profit 85%

expensive: Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Factory New) · 5 407.62 ₴ · chance 7.5%

profit on prices without salesat least −2 446 ₴

3× Dual Berettas | Panther (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0037
7× MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New) buy 0.0200–0.0226

Variant 2 The Mirage Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection

+15 878.13 ₴ +150.1% chance of profit 90%

expensive: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) · 29 117.09 ₴ · chance 90%

profit on prices without salesat least −10 556 ₴

1× Dual Berettas | Panther (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
1× UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
8× MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039

Variant 3 The Overpass Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection

+3 482.11 ₴ +73.0% chance of profit 92%

expensive: USP-S | Road Rash (Factory New) · 10 934.16 ₴ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −4 744 ₴

1× CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0771
9× XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0062

Variant 4 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection

+1 862.15 ₴ +138.5% chance of profit 35%

expensive: Tec-9 | Whiteout (Factory New) · 8 976.64 ₴ · chance 30%

profit on prices without salesat least −1 060 ₴

1× CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0778
9× XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0068

Variant 5 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Arms Deal 3 Collection

+1 606.02 ₴ +81.8% chance of profit 76%

expensive: Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 8 205.78 ₴ · chance 6.0%

profit on prices without salesat least −1 784 ₴

7× MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New) buy 0.0200–0.0225
3× XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0835

Variant 6 The Chop Shop Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection

+1 157.10 ₴ +15.5% chance of profit 50%

expensive: Dual Berettas | Duelist (Factory New) · 18 881.31 ₴ · chance 25%

profit on prices without salesat least −7 328 ₴

4× CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741
1× Dual Berettas | Panther (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0035
5× MP7 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741

How to build

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×3

Dual Berettas | Panther

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0037

962.96 ₴

at 320.99

Steam

×7

MAG-7 | Memento

Factory New

buy 0.0200–0.0226

1 559.58 ₴

at 222.80

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 2 522.54 ₴ +1 098.14 (+43.5%)

profit on prices without sales at least −2 576 ₴

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×2

CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0744

554.41 ₴

at 277.20

Steam

×4

Dual Berettas | Panther

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

1 283.95 ₴

at 320.99

Steam

×4

MAG-7 | Memento

Factory New

buy 0.0200–0.0227

891.19 ₴

at 222.80

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 2 729.55 ₴ +430.16 (+15.8%)

profit on prices without sales at least −2 605 ₴

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×3

CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

831.61 ₴

at 277.20

Steam

×4

Dual Berettas | Panther

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0037

1 283.95 ₴

at 320.99

Steam

×3

MAG-7 | Memento

Factory New

buy 0.0200–0.0227

668.39 ₴

at 222.80

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 2 783.95 ₴ +222.09 (+8.0%)

profit on prices without sales at least −2 634 ₴

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×4

CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

1 108.81 ₴

at 277.20

Steam

×4

Dual Berettas | Panther

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0036

1 283.95 ₴

at 320.99

Steam

×2

MAG-7 | Memento

Factory New

buy 0.0200–0.0226

445.59 ₴

at 222.80

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 2 838.36 ₴ +14.03 (+0.5%)

profit on prices without sales at least −2 475 ₴

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

277.20 ₴

at 277.20

Steam

×3

Dual Berettas | Panther

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0036

962.96 ₴

at 320.99

Steam

×6

MAG-7 | Memento

Factory New

buy 0.0200–0.0225

1 336.78 ₴

at 222.80

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 2 576.95 ₴ +890.07 (+34.5%)

What you get 7 outcomes

Profitable outcome 85%
Losing outcome 15%

in profit

Galil AR | Orange DDPAT

Factory New

5 907.51 ₴ 23.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

P250 | Splash

Factory New

3 366.99 ₴ 23.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

Sawed-Off | Orange DDPAT

Factory New

4 807.23 ₴ 23.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate

Factory New

367.63 ₴ 7.50%

Steam

in profit

best

Desert Eagle | Heirloom

Factory New

6 218.76 ₴ 7.50%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy

Factory New

807.95 ₴ 7.50%

Steam

in profit

Tec-9 | Titanium Bit

Factory New

4 312.96 ₴ 7.50%

price without deals

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +811.39 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +1 100.25 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Arms Deal 3 Collection and The eSports 2013 Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 8 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1737706 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 1 201.76₴ · invest 1 970.73₴
profit on prices without salesat least −1 872 ₴ rare inputs

P90 | Cocoa Rampage (Factory New) instead of Dual Berettas | Panther (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022662 instead of 0.022650
Craft 1742315 · The Shattered Web Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 1 190.88₴ · invest 1 984.66₴
profit on prices without salesat least −1 781 ₴ rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Torn (Factory New) instead of Dual Berettas | Panther (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022545 instead of 0.022650
Craft 1734183 · The Graphic Design Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 1 158.90₴ · invest 1 939.15₴
profit on prices without salesat least −1 698 ₴ rare inputs

XM1014 | Halftone Shift (Factory New) instead of Dual Berettas | Panther (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022662 instead of 0.022650
Craft 1733694 · The Glove Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 1 154.55₴ · invest 2 163.55₴
profit on prices without salesat least −1 757 ₴ rare inputs

MAG-7 | Sonar (Factory New) instead of Dual Berettas | Panther (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022545 instead of 0.022650
Craft 1709180 · The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 1 111.66₴ · invest 2 432.03₴
profit on prices without salesat least −2 432 ₴ rare inputs

Souvenir Negev | Infrastructure (Factory New) instead of Dual Berettas | Panther (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022582 instead of 0.022650
Craft 1727112 · The Dust 2 Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 1 106.69₴ · invest 1 780.44₴
profit on prices without salesat least −1 750 ₴ rare inputs

M4A1-S | VariCamo (Factory New) instead of Dual Berettas | Panther (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022662 instead of 0.022650
Craft 1738008 · The Operation Hydra Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 1 058.07₴ · invest 2 408.23₴
profit on prices without salesat least −2 089 ₴ rare inputs

MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New) instead of Dual Berettas | Panther (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022545 instead of 0.022650
Craft 1706503 · The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 1 043.65₴ · invest 3 115.46₴
profit on prices without salesat least −2 466 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Souvenir Nova | Quick Sand (Factory New) instead of Dual Berettas | Panther (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022591 instead of 0.022650

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 7 outcomes

More

How to build