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The Arms Deal Collection + The Mirage Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +25 515.72₽

Invest 25 174.35₽

Average return 50 690.07₽

ROI +101.4%

Chance of profit 90%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 62 001.29₽ · profit at most −11 311.22₽ (at most -18.2%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New) × 1 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 5592.51 → 12079.82 ₽

UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) × 1 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 1850.00 → 3996.00 ₽

MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) × 8 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.59 17731.84 → 45925.47 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −24 717 ₽

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Arms Deal Collection + The Mirage Collection

+25 515.72 ₽ +101.4% chance of profit 90%

expensive: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) · 55 567.61 ₽ · chance 90%

profit on prices without salesat least −24 717 ₽

1× SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New) buy 0.0600–0.0605
1× UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0041
8× MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0041

Variant 2 only The Mirage Collection

+33 769.29 ₽ +154.9% chance of profit 100%

expensive: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) · 55 567.61 ₽ · chance 100%

profit on prices without salesat least −21 798 ₽

1× UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038
9× MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038

Variant 3 The Overpass Collection instead of The Arms Deal Collection

+31 172.19 ₽ +151.8% chance of profit 95%

expensive: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) · 55 567.61 ₽ · chance 90%

profit on prices without salesat least −20 534 ₽

1× UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
8× MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
1× XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039

Variant 4 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Arms Deal Collection

+30 625.22 ₽ +154.4% chance of profit 90%

expensive: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) · 55 567.61 ₽ · chance 90%

profit on prices without salesat least −19 725 ₽

1× UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038
8× MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038
1× XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0838

Variant 5 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Arms Deal Collection

+30 462.20 ₽ +151.0% chance of profit 90%

expensive: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) · 55 567.61 ₽ · chance 90%

profit on prices without salesat least −20 120 ₽

9× MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0044
1× XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0044

Variant 6 The Safehouse Collection instead of The Arms Deal Collection

+30 454.07 ₽ +155.0% chance of profit 90%

expensive: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) · 55 567.61 ₽ · chance 90%

profit on prices without salesat least −19 557 ₽

1× UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038
8× MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038
1× Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038

How to build

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

SG 553 | Ultraviolet

Factory New

buy 0.0600–0.0605

5 592.51 ₽

at 5 592.51

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Blaze

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0041

1 850.00 ₽

at 1 850.00

Steam

×8

MAC-10 | Amber Fade

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0041

17 731.84 ₽

at 2 216.48

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 25 174.35 ₽ +25 515.72 (+101.4%)

profit on prices without sales at least −23 050 ₽

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×2

SG 553 | Ultraviolet

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0759

3 315.14 ₽

at 1 657.57

Steam

×1

SG 553 | Ultraviolet

Factory New

buy 0.0600–0.0607

5 592.51 ₽

at 5 592.51

Steam

×7

MAC-10 | Amber Fade

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0052

15 515.36 ₽

at 2 216.48

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 24 423.01 ₽ +16 511.98 (+67.6%)

profit on prices without sales at least −23 046 ₽

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×3

MP7 | Skulls

Minimal Wear

buy 0.1000–0.1033

5 984.52 ₽

at 1 994.84

Steam

×1

SG 553 | Ultraviolet

Factory New

buy 0.0600–0.0606

5 592.51 ₽

at 5 592.51

Steam

×6

MAC-10 | Amber Fade

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0047

13 298.88 ₽

at 2 216.48

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 24 875.91 ₽ +11 181.55 (+45.0%)

profit on prices without sales at least −22 366 ₽

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×4

MP7 | Skulls

Minimal Wear

buy 0.1000–0.1031

7 979.36 ₽

at 1 994.84

Steam

×1

SG 553 | Ultraviolet

Factory New

buy 0.0600–0.0606

5 592.51 ₽

at 5 592.51

Steam

×5

MAC-10 | Amber Fade

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0044

11 082.40 ₽

at 2 216.48

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 24 654.27 ₽ +6 525.65 (+26.5%)

profit on prices without sales at least −21 687 ₽

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×5

MP7 | Skulls

Minimal Wear

buy 0.1000–0.1029

9 974.20 ₽

at 1 994.84

Steam

×1

SG 553 | Ultraviolet

Factory New

buy 0.0600–0.0605

5 592.51 ₽

at 5 592.51

Steam

×4

MAC-10 | Amber Fade

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0041

8 865.92 ₽

at 2 216.48

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 24 432.63 ₽ +1 869.75 (+7.7%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 90%
Losing outcome 10%

in profit

best

MAG-7 | Bulldozer

Factory New

63 902.75 ₽ 90.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo

Factory New

8 075.60 ₽ 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

M4A1-S | Dark Water

Minimal Wear

7 710.69 ₽ 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

worst

USP-S | Dark Water

Minimal Wear

7 646.90 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +21 310.61 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +24 373.77 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Arms Deal Collection and The Mirage Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 5 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1709994 · The Alpha Collection + The Mirage Collection · profit 27 126.24₽ · invest 25 000.11₽
profit on prices without salesat least −25 000 ₽ rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Rust Coat (Factory New) instead of SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New); UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New): float at most 0.004033 instead of 0.004133; MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New): float at most 0.004033 instead of 0.004133
Craft 1736933 · The Mirage Collection + The Vertigo Collection · profit 26 628.67₽ · invest 23 506.61₽
profit on prices without salesat least −23 507 ₽ rare inputs

P90 | Glacier Mesh (Factory New) instead of SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New)
Craft 1714267 · The Baggage Collection + The Mirage Collection · profit 26 364.51₽ · invest 25 677.20₽
profit on prices without salesat least −25 677 ₽ rare inputs

XM1014 | Red Leather (Factory New) instead of SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New); UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New): float at most 0.003941 instead of 0.004133; MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New): float at most 0.003941 instead of 0.004133
Craft 1736877 · The Mirage Collection + The Norse Collection · profit 24 692.39₽ · invest 29 005.70₽
profit on prices without salesat least −28 004 ₽ rare inputs

MAC-10 | Copper Borre (Factory New) instead of SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New); UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New): float at most 0.003916 instead of 0.004133; MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New): float at most 0.003916 instead of 0.004133
Craft 1736936 · The Mirage Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 24 610.47₽ · invest 26 179.33₽
profit on prices without salesat least −26 179 ₽ rare inputs

M4A4 | Faded Zebra (Factory New) instead of SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New)

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Arms Deal Collection + The Mirage Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 4 outcomes

More

How to build