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The Breakout Collection + The Fever Collection

Classified → Covert

Average profit +3 701.47₽

Invest 7 678.12₽

Average return 11 379.59₽

ROI +48.2%

Chance of profit 55%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 19 105.86₽ · profit at most −7 726.27₽ (at most -40.4%) · chance of profit at most 5%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) × 1 7% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 2314.03 → 4998.30 ₽

UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear) × 9 7% of the wear window fits at least ×2.63 5364.09 → 14107.56 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Breakout Collection + The Fever Collection

+3 701.47 ₽ +48.2% chance of profit 55%

expensive: P90 | Asiimov (Factory New) · 22 392.21 ₽ · chance 5.0%

sells slowly

1× Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0051
9× UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0758

Variant 2 The Gamma Collection instead of The Breakout Collection

+4 211.79 ₽ +62.1% chance of profit 55%

expensive: M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New) · 20 949.72 ₽ · chance 5.0%

sells slowly

9× UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0763
1× SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0055

Variant 3 The Kilowatt Collection instead of The Breakout Collection

+4 051.39 ₽ +66.6% chance of profit 95%

expensive: AWP | Printstream (Factory New) · 14 206.16 ₽ · chance 45%

sells slowly

9× UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0767
1× Zeus x27 | Olympus (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0059

Variant 4 The Fracture Collection instead of The Breakout Collection

+3 953.64 ₽ +66.2% chance of profit 95%

expensive: AWP | Printstream (Factory New) · 14 206.16 ₽ · chance 45%

sells slowly

9× UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0765
1× XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0056

Variant 5 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Breakout Collection

+3 868.70 ₽ +60.6% chance of profit 100%

expensive: AWP | Printstream (Factory New) · 14 206.16 ₽ · chance 45%

sells slowly

9× UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0758
1× Nova | Antique (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0051

Variant 6 The Recoil Collection instead of The Breakout Collection

+3 833.09 ₽ +61.6% chance of profit 95%

expensive: AWP | Printstream (Factory New) · 14 206.16 ₽ · chance 45%

sells slowly

9× UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0768
1× P250 | Visions (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0059

How to build

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

Desert Eagle | Conspiracy

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0051

2 314.03 ₽

at 2 314.03

Steam

×9

UMP-45 | K.O. Factory

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0758

5 364.09 ₽

at 596.01

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 7 678.12 ₽ +3 701.47 (+48.2%)

profit on prices without sales at least −937 ₽

10% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 10% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

Glock-18 | Water Elemental

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0777

2 103.05 ₽

at 2 103.05

Steam

×2

Desert Eagle | Conspiracy

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

4 628.06 ₽

at 2 314.03

Steam

×7

UMP-45 | K.O. Factory

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0777

4 172.07 ₽

at 596.01

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 10 903.18 ₽ +2 422.10 (+22.2%)

profit on prices without sales at least −6 109 ₽

9% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 9% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×3

Glock-18 | Water Elemental

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0770

6 309.15 ₽

at 2 103.05

Steam

×3

Desert Eagle | Conspiracy

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0061

6 942.09 ₽

at 2 314.03

Steam

×4

UMP-45 | K.O. Factory

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0770

2 384.04 ₽

at 596.01

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 15 635.28 ₽ +608.53 (+3.9%)

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

Five-SeveN | Fowl Play

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0758

2 216.48 ₽

at 2 216.48

Steam

×1

Desert Eagle | Conspiracy

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0051

2 314.03 ₽

at 2 314.03

Steam

×8

UMP-45 | K.O. Factory

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0758

4 768.08 ₽

at 596.01

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 9 298.59 ₽ +3 053.85 (+32.8%)

profit on prices without sales at least −2 591 ₽

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×2

Glock-18 | Water Elemental

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0754

4 206.10 ₽

at 2 103.05

Steam

×2

Desert Eagle | Conspiracy

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0047

4 628.06 ₽

at 2 314.03

Steam

×6

UMP-45 | K.O. Factory

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0754

3 576.06 ₽

at 596.01

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 12 410.22 ₽ +1 887.90 (+15.2%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 55%
Losing outcome 45%

in profit

AWP | Printstream

Factory New

16 337.08 ₽ 45.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

FAMAS | Bad Trip

Factory New

7 598.44 ₽ 45.00%

Steam

in profit

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

20 559.89 ₽ 5.00%

Steam

in profit

best

P90 | Asiimov

Factory New

25 751.04 ₽ 5.00%

price without deals

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +2 407.08 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +3 284.92 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Fever Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Breakout Collection + The Fever Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 4 outcomes

More

How to build