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The Breakout Collection + The Shadow Collection

Restricted → Classified

Average profit +2 554.02₽

Invest 2 537.92₽

Average return 5 091.94₽

ROI +100.6%

Chance of profit 67%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 6 230.65₽ · profit at most −1 138.72₽ (at most -18.3%) · chance of profit at most 33%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

Nova | Koi (Factory New) × 3 8% of the wear window fits at least ×2.26 831.18 → 1878.47 ₽

M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear) × 7 8% of the wear window fits at least ×2.55 1706.74 → 4352.19 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −618 ₽

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Breakout Collection + The Shadow Collection

+2 554.02 ₽ +100.6% chance of profit 67%

expensive: AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New) · 10 786.44 ₽ · chance 23%

profit on prices without salesat least −618 ₽

3× Nova | Koi (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0054
7× M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0762

Variant 2 The Horizon Collection instead of The Shadow Collection

+3 008.42 ₽ +127.0% chance of profit 67%

expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 17 915.19 ₽ · chance 13%

sells slowly

6× Nova | Koi (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0047
3× Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1656
1× G3SG1 | High Seas (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0754

Variant 3 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Shadow Collection

+2 491.64 ₽ +73.9% chance of profit 83%

expensive: M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Factory New) · 7 902.74 ₽ · chance 25%

sells slowly

5× Nova | Koi (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038
3× Nova | Smart Gun (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1625
2× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0743

Variant 4 The Radiant Collection instead of The Shadow Collection

+2 063.28 ₽ +83.0% chance of profit 77%

expensive: Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Factory New) · 6 555.90 ₽ · chance 23%

rare inputs

7× Nova | Koi (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038
2× M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1627
1× USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0744

Variant 5 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Breakout Collection

+2 016.83 ₽ +39.4% chance of profit 90%

expensive: M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Factory New) · 7 902.74 ₽ · chance 45%

sells slowly

1× MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0058
9× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0767

Variant 6 The Overpass 2024 Collection instead of The Shadow Collection

+1 986.49 ₽ +78.2% chance of profit 77%

expensive: AWP | Crakow! (Factory New) · 7 174.07 ₽ · chance 15%

sells slowly

7× Nova | Koi (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0041
1× XM1014 | Monster Melt (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1636
2× AUG | Eye of Zapems (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1636

How to build

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×3

Nova | Koi

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0054

831.18 ₽

at 277.06

Steam

×7

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0762

1 706.74 ₽

at 243.82

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 2 537.92 ₽ +2 554.02 (+100.6%)

profit on prices without sales at least −1 028 ₽

10% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 10% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

Nova | Koi

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

277.06 ₽

at 277.06

Steam

×7

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0777

1 706.74 ₽

at 243.82

Steam

×2

MP7 | Special Delivery

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

963.98 ₽

at 481.99

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 2 947.78 ₽ +2 426.53 (+82.3%)

profit on prices without sales at least −823 ₽

9% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 9% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×2

Nova | Koi

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0060

554.12 ₽

at 277.06

Steam

×7

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0768

1 706.74 ₽

at 243.82

Steam

×1

MP7 | Special Delivery

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0060

481.99 ₽

at 481.99

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 2 742.85 ₽ +2 490.28 (+90.8%)

What you get 6 outcomes

Profitable outcome 67%
Losing outcome 10%
About break-even 23%

in profit

best

AK-47 | Frontside Misty

Factory New

12 404.41 ₽ 23.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

G3SG1 | Flux

Factory New

3 800.57 ₽ 23.33%

Steam

about break-even

SSG 08 | Big Iron

Factory New

2 823.51 ₽ 23.33%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Desert Eagle | Conspiracy

Factory New

2 252.12 ₽ 10.00%

Steam

in profit

Five-SeveN | Fowl Play

Factory New

7 539.29 ₽ 10.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

Glock-18 | Water Elemental

Factory New

4 366.04 ₽ 10.00%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +1 825.87 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +2 364.41 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Shadow Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1708916 · The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 2 459.99₽ · invest 8 906.74₽
profit on prices without salesat least −7 563 ₽ rare inputs

Souvenir MAG-7 | Prism Terrace (Factory New) instead of Nova | Koi (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076969 instead of 0.076237

Market check at night · fresher — with «Check floats on Steam»

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Breakout Collection + The Shadow Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 6 outcomes

More

How to build