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The Breakout Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +383.43₴

Invest 741.08₴

Average return 1 124.52₴

ROI +51.7%

Chance of profit 45%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 1 847.84₴ · profit at most −723.33₴ (at most -39.1%) · chance of profit at most 22%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New) × 1 7% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 28.31 → 61.14 ₴

MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) × 2 7% of the wear window fits at least ×2.21 90.84 → 200.76 ₴

UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) × 7 7% of the wear window fits at least ×2.55 621.94 → 1585.94 ₴

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −358 ₴

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Breakout Collection + The Vanguard Collection

+383.43 ₴ +51.7% chance of profit 45%

expensive: M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New) · 3 295.33 ₴ · chance 22%

profit on prices without salesat least −358 ₴

1× Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0047
2× MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1657
7× UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0754

Variant 2 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

+1 147.52 ₴ +313.5% chance of profit 36%

expensive: Desert Eagle | Directive (Factory New) · 6 110.12 ₴ · chance 18%

sells slowly

1× Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0053
9× XM1014 | Slipstream (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0053

Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

+355.61 ₴ +96.8% chance of profit 24%

expensive: M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New) · 5 006.99 ₴ · chance 8.0%

rare inputs

6× Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
4× P2000 | Turf (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1630

Variant 4 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

+252.34 ₴ +61.0% chance of profit 90%

expensive: AWP | Black Box (Factory New) · 1 115.31 ₴ · chance 30%

rare inputs

1× Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0056
9× R8 Revolver | Monarch (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0765

Variant 5 The Mirage Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

+15 934.36 ₴ +154.9% chance of profit 90%

expensive: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) · 29 117.09 ₴ · chance 90%

profit on prices without salesat least −10 271 ₴

1× Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
1× UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
8× MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039

Variant 6 The Overpass Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

+3 494.55 ₴ +77.3% chance of profit 90%

expensive: USP-S | Road Rash (Factory New) · 10 934.16 ₴ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −4 502 ₴

1× Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0067
9× XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0067

How to build

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

Negev | Desert-Strike

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0047

28.31 ₴

at 28.31

Steam

×2

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1657

90.84 ₴

at 45.42

Steam

×7

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0754

621.94 ₴

at 88.85

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 741.08 ₴ +383.43 (+51.7%)

What you get 8 outcomes

Profitable outcome 45%
Losing outcome 55%

at a loss

Glock-18 | Grinder

Factory New

449.78 ₴ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

best

M4A4 | Griffin

Factory New

3 789.63 ₴ 22.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

M4A1-S | Basilisk

Factory New

1 307.13 ₴ 22.50%

Steam

at a loss

Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Minimal Wear

134.72 ₴ 22.50%

Steam

at a loss

PP-Bizon | Osiris

Factory New

154.87 ₴ 2.50%

Steam

at a loss

worst

CZ75-Auto | Tigris

Minimal Wear

134.14 ₴ 2.50%

Steam

at a loss

Nova | Koi

Factory New

142.75 ₴ 2.50%

Steam

at a loss

P250 | Supernova

Factory New

164.67 ₴ 2.50%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +128.10 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +249.85 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Vanguard Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 38 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1704836 · The 2018 Inferno Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 404.23₴ · invest 745.27₴
profit on prices without salesat least −337 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162759 instead of 0.165745; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074438 instead of 0.075476
Craft 1738785 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 402.06₴ · invest 744.33₴
profit on prices without salesat least −339 ₴ rare inputs

Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161976 instead of 0.165745; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074165 instead of 0.075476
Craft 1740533 · The Radiant Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 400.13₴ · invest 748.04₴
profit on prices without salesat least −341 ₴ rare inputs

M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New)
Craft 1715396 · The Boreal Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 396.12₴ · invest 732.23₴
profit on prices without salesat least −345 ₴ rare inputs

MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165863 instead of 0.165745; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075517 instead of 0.075476
Craft 1714083 · The Ascent Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 395.89₴ · invest 757.95₴
profit on prices without salesat least −346 ₴ rare inputs

Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165863 instead of 0.165745; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075517 instead of 0.075476
Craft 1720093 · The Chroma 2 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 395.72₴ · invest 728.27₴
profit on prices without salesat least −346 ₴ rare inputs

Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164126 instead of 0.165745; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074913 instead of 0.075476
Craft 1738786 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 395.12₴ · invest 744.33₴
profit on prices without salesat least −346 ₴ rare inputs

Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164182 instead of 0.165745; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074933 instead of 0.075476
Craft 1734569 · The Harlequin Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 394.66₴ · invest 753.75₴
profit on prices without salesat least −347 ₴ rare inputs

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165917 instead of 0.165745; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075536 instead of 0.075476
Craft 1724658 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 393.39₴ · invest 727.28₴
profit on prices without salesat least −350 ₴ rare inputs

Tec-9 | Fubar (Field-Tested) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164313 instead of 0.165745; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074978 instead of 0.075476
Craft 1735256 · The Horizon Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 391.99₴ · invest 757.46₴
profit on prices without salesat least −349 ₴ rare inputs

Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New)
Craft 1726698 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 391.63₴ · invest 726.71₴
profit on prices without salesat least −350 ₴ rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165832 instead of 0.165745; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075506 instead of 0.075476
Craft 1739332 · The Phoenix Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 391.52₴ · invest 740.65₴
profit on prices without salesat least −350 ₴ rare inputs

UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163765 instead of 0.165745; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074788 instead of 0.075476
Craft 1732319 · The Gamma Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 391.00₴ · invest 734.97₴
profit on prices without salesat least −350 ₴ rare inputs

P250 | Iron Clad (Minimal Wear) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163940 instead of 0.165745; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074848 instead of 0.075476
Craft 1742621 · The Spectrum 2 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 390.92₴ · invest 732.52₴
profit on prices without salesat least −351 ₴ rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New)
Craft 1730795 · The Gallery Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 390.65₴ · invest 749.36₴
profit on prices without salesat least −353 ₴ rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162132 instead of 0.165745; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074219 instead of 0.075476
Craft 1709907 · The Achroma Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 389.84₴ · invest 751.03₴
profit on prices without salesat least −352 ₴ rare inputs

P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165909 instead of 0.165745; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075533 instead of 0.075476
Craft 1738787 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 389.66₴ · invest 744.33₴
profit on prices without salesat least −352 ₴ rare inputs

Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New)
Craft 1723219 · The Clutch Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 389.56₴ · invest 729.91₴
profit on prices without salesat least −352 ₴ rare inputs

SG 553 | Aloha (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165809 instead of 0.165745; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075498 instead of 0.075476
Craft 1736573 · The Kilowatt Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 388.75₴ · invest 727.67₴
profit on prices without salesat least −353 ₴ rare inputs

Dual Berettas | Hideout (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165947 instead of 0.165745; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075546 instead of 0.075476
Craft 1729783 · The Fracture Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 388.62₴ · invest 728.77₴
profit on prices without salesat least −353 ₴ rare inputs

SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165948 instead of 0.165745; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075547 instead of 0.075476
Craft 1742451 · The Snakebite Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 388.51₴ · invest 736.59₴
profit on prices without salesat least −353 ₴ rare inputs

Nova | Windblown (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161976 instead of 0.165745; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074165 instead of 0.075476
Craft 1718118 · The CS20 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 387.36₴ · invest 743.47₴
profit on prices without salesat least −354 ₴ rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165882 instead of 0.165745; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075524 instead of 0.075476
Craft 1741229 · The Revolution Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 386.99₴ · invest 730.86₴
profit on prices without salesat least −354 ₴ rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.166001 instead of 0.165745; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075565 instead of 0.075476
Craft 1742756 · The Spectrum Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 386.72₴ · invest 739.72₴
profit on prices without salesat least −355 ₴ rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Zander (Minimal Wear) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164460 instead of 0.165745; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075029 instead of 0.075476
Craft 1721199 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 386.38₴ · invest 739.62₴
profit on prices without salesat least −355 ₴ rare inputs

M249 | Spectre (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New)
Craft 1742452 · The Snakebite Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 386.04₴ · invest 736.59₴
profit on prices without salesat least −355 ₴ rare inputs

Nova | Windblown (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New)
Craft 1740873 · The Recoil Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 385.33₴ · invest 731.31₴
profit on prices without salesat least −356 ₴ rare inputs

Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165948 instead of 0.165745; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075547 instead of 0.075476
Craft 1728009 · The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 381.19₴ · invest 750.46₴
profit on prices without salesat least −360 ₴ rare inputs

UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165948 instead of 0.165745; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075547 instead of 0.075476
Craft 1739755 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 381.03₴ · invest 737.98₴
profit on prices without salesat least −360 ₴ rare inputs

R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165863 instead of 0.165745; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075517 instead of 0.075476
Craft 1736815 · The Lake Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 380.96₴ · invest 733.80₴
profit on prices without salesat least −360 ₴ rare inputs

SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162759 instead of 0.165745; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074438 instead of 0.075476
Craft 1741530 · The Revolver Case Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 380.93₴ · invest 744.27₴
profit on prices without salesat least −361 ₴ rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Outbreak (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New)
Craft 1722025 · The Chroma Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 378.53₴ · invest 758.07₴
profit on prices without salesat least −369 ₴ rare inputs

XM1014 | Quicksilver (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New)
Craft 1735993 · The Italy Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 374.22₴ · invest 743.55₴
profit on prices without salesat least −367 ₴ rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165863 instead of 0.165745; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075517 instead of 0.075476
Craft 1743117 · The Vanguard Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection · profit 370.48₴ · invest 794.96₴
profit on prices without salesat least −371 ₴ rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161857 instead of 0.165745; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074124 instead of 0.075476
Craft 1735747 · The Huntsman Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 369.83₴ · invest 781.07₴
profit on prices without salesat least −372 ₴ rare inputs

SSG 08 | Slashed (Field-Tested) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163100 instead of 0.165745; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074556 instead of 0.075476
Craft 1743085 · The Train Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 369.56₴ · invest 744.11₴
profit on prices without salesat least −372 ₴ rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165571 instead of 0.165745; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075416 instead of 0.075476
Craft 1741858 · The Safehouse Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 369.31₴ · invest 747.62₴
profit on prices without salesat least −372 ₴ rare inputs

Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165571 instead of 0.165745; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075416 instead of 0.075476
Craft 1735748 · The Huntsman Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 365.59₴ · invest 781.07₴
profit on prices without salesat least −376 ₴ rare inputs

SSG 08 | Slashed (Field-Tested) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164741 instead of 0.165745; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075127 instead of 0.075476

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Breakout Collection + The Vanguard Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 8 outcomes

More

How to build