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The Breakout Collection + The Wildfire Collection

Classified → Covert

Average profit +4 013.78₽

Invest 19 990.03₽

Average return 24 003.81₽

ROI +20.1%

Chance of profit 50%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 51 486.18₽ · profit at most −27 482.38₽ (at most -53.4%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) × 1 7% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 2314.03 → 4998.30 ₽

AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) × 9 7% of the wear window fits at least ×2.63 17676.00 → 46487.88 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −19 096 ₽

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Breakout Collection + The Wildfire Collection

+4 013.78 ₽ +20.1% chance of profit 50%

expensive: AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) · 40 470.22 ₽ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −19 096 ₽

1× Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0051
9× AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0758

Variant 2 The Fever Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

+3 701.47 ₽ +48.2% chance of profit 55%

expensive: P90 | Asiimov (Factory New) · 22 392.21 ₽ · chance 5.0%

sells slowly

1× Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0051
9× UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0758

Variant 3 The Dead Hand Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

+3 134.80 ₽ +42.8% chance of profit 100%

expensive: P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear) · 17 640.77 ₽ · chance 5.0%

float out of reach

1× Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0045
9× P90 | Deathgaze (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1649

Variant 4 The Snakebite Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

+2 423.62 ₽ +27.8% chance of profit 60%

expensive: P90 | Asiimov (Factory New) · 22 392.21 ₽ · chance 10%

sells slowly

2× Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0046
8× XM1014 | XOXO (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0752

Variant 5 The Revolution Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

+2 208.43 ₽ +30.4% chance of profit 100%

expensive: P90 | Asiimov (Factory New) · 22 392.21 ₽ · chance 5.0%

sells slowly

1× Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0037
1× AWP | Duality (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0743
8× P2000 | Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0743

Variant 6 The Genesis Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

+2 128.05 ₽ +30.0% chance of profit 55%

expensive: P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear) · 17 640.77 ₽ · chance 5.0%

float out of reach

1× Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0045
9× Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1649

How to build

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

Desert Eagle | Conspiracy

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0051

2 314.03 ₽

at 2 314.03

Steam

×9

AWP | Elite Build

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0758

17 676.00 ₽

at 1 964.00

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 19 990.03 ₽ +4 013.78 (+20.1%)

profit on prices without sales at least −15 851 ₽

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×4

Desert Eagle | Conspiracy

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0049

9 256.12 ₽

at 2 314.03

Steam

×2

AWP | Elite Build

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1661

2 314.02 ₽

at 1 157.01

Steam

×4

AWP | Elite Build

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0756

7 856.00 ₽

at 1 964.00

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 19 426.14 ₽ +3 288.13 (+16.9%)

profit on prices without sales at least −13 201 ₽

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

Glock-18 | Water Elemental

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0754

2 103.05 ₽

at 2 103.05

Steam

×6

Desert Eagle | Conspiracy

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0047

13 884.18 ₽

at 2 314.03

Steam

×3

AWP | Elite Build

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1656

3 471.03 ₽

at 1 157.01

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 19 458.26 ₽ +1 966.47 (+10.1%)

profit on prices without sales at least −13 635 ₽

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×6

Desert Eagle | Conspiracy

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0041

13 884.18 ₽

at 2 314.03

Steam

×3

AWP | Elite Build

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1637

3 471.03 ₽

at 1 157.01

Steam

×1

Nova | Hyper Beast

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0747

1 643.36 ₽

at 1 643.36

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 18 998.57 ₽ +2 856.00 (+15.0%)

profit on prices without sales at least −14 500 ₽

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×5

Desert Eagle | Conspiracy

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

11 570.15 ₽

at 2 314.03

Steam

×3

AWP | Elite Build

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1625

3 471.03 ₽

at 1 157.01

Steam

×2

AWP | Elite Build

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

3 928.00 ₽

at 1 964.00

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 18 969.18 ₽ +3 315.24 (+17.5%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 50%
Losing outcome 50%

in profit

best

AK-47 | Fuel Injector

Factory New

46 540.75 ₽ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

9 656.66 ₽ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

20 559.89 ₽ 5.00%

Steam

in profit

P90 | Asiimov

Factory New

25 751.04 ₽ 5.00%

price without deals

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week -263.47 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +2 769.20 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 2 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1739370 · The Phoenix Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 4 181.01₽ · invest 18 693.17₽
profit on prices without salesat least −17 809 ₽ rare inputs

Nova | Antique (Factory New) instead of Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New)
Craft 1742798 · The Spectrum Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 3 949.67₽ · invest 19 270.76₽
profit on prices without salesat least −18 041 ₽ rare inputs

CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Factory New) instead of Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New); AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076627 instead of 0.075874

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Breakout Collection + The Wildfire Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 4 outcomes

More

How to build