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The Cache Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +3 543.01₽

Invest 3 498.02₽

Average return 7 041.03₽

ROI +101.3%

Chance of profit 40%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 8 512.80₽ · profit at most −1 471.77₽ (at most -17.3%) · chance of profit at most 40%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

XM1014 | Bone Machine (Factory New) × 1 11% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 1461.68 → 3157.23 ₽

XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) × 9 11% of the wear window fits at least ×2.63 2036.34 → 5355.57 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −3 004 ₽

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Cache Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

+3 543.01 ₽ +101.3% chance of profit 40%

expensive: Tec-9 | Whiteout (Factory New) · 17 131.20 ₽ · chance 30%

profit on prices without salesat least −3 004 ₽

1× XM1014 | Bone Machine (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0077
9× XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0077

Variant 2 The Mirage Collection instead of The Train 2025 Collection

+30 374.95 ₽ +144.3% chance of profit 90%

expensive: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) · 55 567.61 ₽ · chance 90%

profit on prices without salesat least −21 044 ₽

1× XM1014 | Bone Machine (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
1× UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
8× MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039

Variant 3 The Overpass Collection instead of The Train 2025 Collection

+6 634.58 ₽ +66.1% chance of profit 100%

expensive: USP-S | Road Rash (Factory New) · 20 866.97 ₽ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −10 034 ₽

1× XM1014 | Bone Machine (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0068
9× XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0068

Variant 4 only The Train 2025 Collection

+3 996.74 ₽ +176.6% chance of profit 33%

expensive: Tec-9 | Whiteout (Factory New) · 17 131.20 ₽ · chance 33%

profit on prices without salesat least −1 714 ₽

10× XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0079

Variant 5 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Cache Collection

+3 950.83 ₽ +160.5% chance of profit 40%

expensive: Tec-9 | Whiteout (Factory New) · 17 131.20 ₽ · chance 30%

profit on prices without salesat least −1 967 ₽

9× XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0064
1× MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New) buy 0.0200–0.0245

Variant 6 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Cache Collection

+3 793.28 ₽ +165.4% chance of profit 34%

expensive: Tec-9 | Whiteout (Factory New) · 17 131.20 ₽ · chance 30%

profit on prices without salesat least −1 685 ₽

9× XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0073
1× XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0873

How to build

11% of lots fit ≈ enough for 3 contracts · medium (by listings)

Price understated: only 11% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

XM1014 | Bone Machine

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0077

1 461.68 ₽

at 1 461.68

Steam

×9

XM1014 | Run Run Run

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0077

2 036.34 ₽

at 226.26

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 3 498.02 ₽ +3 543.01 (+101.3%)

What you get 5 outcomes

Profitable outcome 40%
Losing outcome 60%

at a loss

worst

MAC-10 | Derailment

Factory New

725.39 ₽ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

Zeus x27 | Charged Up

Factory New

1 168.47 ₽ 30.00%

Steam

in profit

best

Tec-9 | Whiteout

Factory New

19 700.88 ₽ 30.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

FAMAS | Styx

Factory New

13 197.00 ₽ 5.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

Galil AR | Cerberus

Factory New

19 178.22 ₽ 5.00%

price without deals

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +2 547.77 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +3 099.02 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Cache Collection and The Train 2025 Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Cache Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 5 outcomes

More

How to build