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The Chroma 2 Collection + The Falchion Collection

StatTrak™ Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +809.25₽

Invest 1 137.83₽

Average return 1 947.08₽

ROI +71.1%

Chance of profit 56%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 2 892.32₽ · profit at most −945.24₽ (at most -32.7%) · chance of profit at most 18%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

StatTrak™ Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) × 1 7% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 55.20 → 119.23 ₽

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear) × 1 7% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 71.91 → 155.33 ₽

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) × 8 7% of the wear window fits at least ×2.59 1010.72 → 2617.76 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −595 ₽

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Chroma 2 Collection + The Falchion Collection

+809.25 ₽ +71.1% chance of profit 56%

expensive: StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth (Minimal Wear) · 6 202.32 ₽ · chance 18%

profit on prices without salesat least −595 ₽

1× StatTrak™ Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) buy 0.1000–0.1033
1× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0754
8× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0047

Variant 2 The Dead Hand Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

+554.97 ₽ +125.6% chance of profit 98%

expensive: StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Electrum (Factory New) · 1 908.43 ₽ · chance 18%

rare inputs

1× StatTrak™ Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) buy 0.1000–0.1028
9× StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0745

Variant 3 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Chroma 2 Collection

+11 422.92 ₽ +453.6% chance of profit 52%

expensive: StatTrak™ Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New) · 46 304.35 ₽ · chance 13%

profit on prices without salesat least −2 170 ₽

6× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0036
4× StatTrak™ FAMAS | Doomkitty (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0836

Variant 4 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Chroma 2 Collection

+7 422.90 ₽ +196.5% chance of profit 38%

expensive: StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 49 848.43 ₽ · chance 18%

profit on prices without salesat least −3 300 ₽

1× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0059
9× StatTrak™ XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0859

Variant 5 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

+7 351.97 ₽ +198.4% chance of profit 54%

expensive: StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 49 848.43 ₽ · chance 18%

profit on prices without salesat least −3 266 ₽

1× StatTrak™ Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) buy 0.1000–0.1033
9× StatTrak™ XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0847

Variant 6 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

+4 186.40 ₽ +23.0% chance of profit 47%

expensive: StatTrak™ Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New) · 46 304.35 ₽ · chance 23%

profit on prices without salesat least −18 155 ₽

1× StatTrak™ Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) buy 0.1000–0.1025
2× StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Origami (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0035
6× StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New) buy 0.0200–0.0225
1 more

How to build

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

StatTrak™ Negev | Man-o'-war

Minimal Wear

buy 0.1000–0.1033

55.20 ₽

at 55.20

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0754

71.91 ₽

at 71.91

Steam

×8

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0047

1 010.72 ₽

at 126.34

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 137.83 ₽ +809.25 (+71.1%)

profit on prices without sales at least −486 ₽

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×5

StatTrak™ Negev | Man-o'-war

Minimal Wear

buy 0.1000–0.1031

276.00 ₽

at 55.20

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Origami

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0044

239.43 ₽

at 79.81

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0044

252.68 ₽

at 126.34

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 768.11 ₽ +184.52 (+24.0%)

profit on prices without sales at least −534 ₽

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×3

StatTrak™ Negev | Man-o'-war

Minimal Wear

buy 0.1000–0.1028

165.60 ₽

at 55.20

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0746

78.69 ₽

at 78.69

Steam

×6

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0040

758.04 ₽

at 126.34

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 002.33 ₽ +660.62 (+65.9%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 57%
Losing outcome 44%

at a loss

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

627.68 ₽ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

1 542.00 ₽ 18.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

2 054.89 ₽ 18.00%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

655.34 ₽ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

best

StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth

Minimal Wear

7 132.67 ₽ 18.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ AWP | Worm God

Factory New

811.79 ₽ 2.50%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Pole Position

Factory New

572.70 ₽ 2.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Heat

Factory New

1 546.67 ₽ 2.50%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Grand Prix

Field-Tested

143.92 ₽ 2.50%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +678.72 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +797.22 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Chroma 2 Collection and The Falchion Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 3 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1728011 · The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 837.62₽ · invest 1 254.13₽
profit on prices without salesat least −614 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074140 instead of 0.075434; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.003622 instead of 0.004755
Craft 1727862 · The Falchion Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 810.73₽ · invest 1 290.97₽
profit on prices without salesat least −769 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ M249 | Warbird (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074791 instead of 0.075434; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.004192 instead of 0.004755
Craft 1723694 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 804.76₽ · invest 1 110.16₽
profit on prices without salesat least −553 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Fubar (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075717 instead of 0.075434; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.005002 instead of 0.004755

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Chroma 2 Collection + The Falchion Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 9 outcomes

More

How to build