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The Chroma 3 Collection + The Dead Hand Collection

Restricted → Classified

Average profit +11.39$

Invest 21.44$

Average return 32.83$

ROI +53.1%

Chance of profit 63%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 54.58$ · profit at most −21.74$ (at most -39.8%) · chance of profit at most 30%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

XM1014 | Black Tie (Factory New) × 1 9% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 3.84 → 8.30 $

MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear) × 9 9% of the wear window fits at least ×2.63 17.60 → 46.28 $

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Chroma 3 Collection + The Dead Hand Collection

+11.39 $ +53.2% chance of profit 63%

expensive: AK-47 | Crane Flight (Factory New) · 60.01 $ · chance 30%

sells slowly

1× XM1014 | Black Tie (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0060
9× MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0768

Variant 2 The Horizon Collection instead of The Chroma 3 Collection

+27.83 $ +53.4% chance of profit 33%

expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 209.15 $ · chance 30%

sells slowly

1× MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0041
4× Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1636
5× AWP | PAW (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0041

Variant 3 The Horizon Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection

+26.96 $ +52.3% chance of profit 30%

expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 209.15 $ · chance 30%

sells slowly

1× XM1014 | Black Tie (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0040
4× Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1634
5× AWP | PAW (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0040

Variant 4 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Chroma 3 Collection

+24.99 $ +42.7% chance of profit 93%

expensive: M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Factory New) · 92.26 $ · chance 45%

sells slowly

1× MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0062
9× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0770

Variant 5 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection

+24.12 $ +41.6% chance of profit 90%

expensive: M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Factory New) · 92.26 $ · chance 45%

sells slowly

1× XM1014 | Black Tie (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0060
9× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0768

Variant 6 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Chroma 3 Collection

+19.91 $ +57.7% chance of profit 33%

expensive: AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) · 148.20 $ · chance 30%

sells slowly

1× MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0743
9× FAMAS | Sergeant (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1625

How to build

9% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 9% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

XM1014 | Black Tie

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0060

3.84 $

at 3.84

Steam

×9

MP9 | Urban Sovereign

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0768

17.60 $

at 1.96

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 21.44 $ +11.39 (+53.1%)

What you get 6 outcomes

Profitable outcome 63%
Losing outcome 37%

in profit

best

AK-47 | Crane Flight

Factory New

69.01 $ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

P250 | Kintsugi

Factory New

23.07 $ 30.00%

Steam

in profit

P90 | Deathgaze

Factory New

26.23 $ 30.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

AUG | Fleet Flock

Factory New

30.52 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

P250 | Asiimov

Field-Tested

15.12 $ 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

UMP-45 | Primal Saber

Factory New

22.35 $ 3.33%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +7.13 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +11.50 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Chroma 3 Collection and The Dead Hand Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 3 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1725321 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit 12.28$ · invest 19.46$
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | Black Tie (Factory New); MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076256 instead of 0.076885
Craft 1725433 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Revolver Case Collection · profit 11.85$ · invest 22.03$
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | Black Tie (Factory New); MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076765 instead of 0.076885
Craft 1725295 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Prisma 2 Collection · profit 11.78$ · invest 20.91$
sells slowly rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | Black Tie (Factory New); MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077088 instead of 0.076885

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Chroma 3 Collection + The Dead Hand Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 6 outcomes

More

How to build