The Danger Zone Collection + The Shadow Collection

Classified → Covert

Prices by float: this craft wasn't checked against the market overnight (only the best ones are) or there weren't enough listings — the numbers below are by average prices. «Check floats on Steam» will price it by live listings right now.

Average profit +4 292.39₴

Invest 7 065.90₴

Average return 11 358.29₴

ROI +60.8%

Chance of profit 90%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 17 414.40₴ · profit at most −6 056.11₴ (at most -34.8%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New) × 1 8% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 557.48 → 1204.16 ₴

G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear) × 8 8% of the wear window fits at least ×2.59 5004.77 → 12962.36 ₴

SSG 08 | Big Iron (Factory New) × 1 8% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 1503.65 → 3247.88 ₴

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −6 818 ₴

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Danger Zone Collection + The Shadow Collection

+4 292.39 ₴ +60.7% chance of profit 90%

expensive: USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New) · 13 381.68 ₴ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −6 818 ₴

1× UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0056
8× G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0764
1× SSG 08 | Big Iron (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0056

Variant 2 The Fever Collection instead of The Shadow Collection

+1 787.13 ₴ +53.1% chance of profit 90%

expensive: AWP | Printstream (Factory New) · 7 443.94 ₴ · chance 45%

sells slowly

1× UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0056
9× UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0765

Variant 3 The Dead Hand Collection instead of The Shadow Collection

+1 619.92 ₴ +50.8% chance of profit 90%

expensive: AWP | Queen's Gambit (Minimal Wear) · 5 238.07 ₴ · chance 45%

rare inputs

1× UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0047
9× P90 | Deathgaze (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1656

Variant 4 The Genesis Collection instead of The Shadow Collection

+1 092.39 ₴ +35.7% chance of profit 90%

expensive: AK-47 | The Oligarch (Minimal Wear) · 5 095.38 ₴ · chance 45%

rare inputs

1× UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0047
9× Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1656

Variant 5 The Gallery Collection instead of The Shadow Collection

+1 045.96 ₴ +23.5% chance of profit 90%

expensive: M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Factory New) · 6 426.74 ₴ · chance 45%

sells slowly

1× UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0047
3× UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1654
6× UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0753

Variant 6 The Snakebite Collection instead of The Shadow Collection

+1 018.69 ₴ +29.7% chance of profit 90%

expensive: USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New) · 5 333.44 ₴ · chance 45%

sells slowly

1× UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0058
8× XM1014 | XOXO (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0766
1× XM1014 | XOXO (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0058

How to build

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

UMP-45 | Momentum

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0056

557.48 ₴

at 557.48

Steam

×8

G3SG1 | Flux

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0764

5 004.77 ₴

at 625.60

Steam

×1

SSG 08 | Big Iron

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0056

1 503.65 ₴

at 1 503.65

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 7 065.90 ₴ +4 292.39 (+60.8%)

profit on prices without sales at least −3 569 ₴

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×6

UMP-45 | Momentum

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0050

3 344.89 ₴

at 557.48

Steam

×3

G3SG1 | Flux

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1665

1 084.04 ₴

at 361.35

Steam

×1

G3SG1 | Flux

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0757

625.60 ₴

at 625.60

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 5 054.53 ₴ +1 369.16 (+27.1%)

profit on prices without sales at least −3 038 ₴

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

MP5-SD | Phosphor

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0752

342.42 ₴

at 342.42

Steam

×6

UMP-45 | Momentum

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0046

3 344.89 ₴

at 557.48

Steam

×3

G3SG1 | Flux

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1651

1 084.04 ₴

at 361.35

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 4 771.36 ₴ +665.41 (+13.9%)

profit on prices without sales at least −4 124 ₴

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

UMP-45 | Momentum

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0749

268.43 ₴

at 268.43

Steam

×4

UMP-45 | Momentum

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0043

2 229.93 ₴

at 557.48

Steam

×1

G3SG1 | Flux

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1642

361.35 ₴

at 361.35

Steam

×4

G3SG1 | Flux

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0749

2 502.39 ₴

at 625.60

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 5 362.09 ₴ +2 048.52 (+38.2%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 90%
Losing outcome 10%

in profit

M4A1-S | Golden Coil

Factory New

13 005.05 ₴ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

best

USP-S | Kill Confirmed

Factory New

15 388.94 ₴ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

AK-47 | Asiimov

Minimal Wear

2 979.64 ₴ 5.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

AWP | Neo-Noir

Factory New

2 715.17 ₴ 5.00%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +2 559.04 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +3 452.58 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Danger Zone Collection and The Shadow Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 7 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1728787 · The Fever Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 4 321.64₴ · invest 7 334.35₴
profit on prices without salesat least −6 789 ₴ rare inputs

UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New); G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076987 instead of 0.076478; SSG 08 | Big Iron (Factory New): float at most 0.006113 instead of 0.005668
Craft 1731487 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 4 193.33₴ · invest 7 829.58₴
profit on prices without salesat least −7 830 ₴ rare inputs

MP9 | Airlock (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New); G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076987 instead of 0.076478; SSG 08 | Big Iron (Factory New): float at most 0.006113 instead of 0.005668
Craft 1730589 · The Gallery Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 4 187.12₴ · invest 7 507.77₴
profit on prices without salesat least −6 924 ₴ rare inputs

P250 | Epicenter (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New); G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076852 instead of 0.076478; SSG 08 | Big Iron (Factory New): float at most 0.005996 instead of 0.005668
Craft 1726535 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 4 171.28₴ · invest 7 406.10₴
profit on prices without salesat least −6 939 ₴ rare inputs

FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New); G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076987 instead of 0.076478; SSG 08 | Big Iron (Factory New): float at most 0.006113 instead of 0.005668
Craft 1741956 · The Shadow Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit 4 150.12₴ · invest 7 876.09₴
profit on prices without salesat least −7 575 ₴ rare inputs

PP-Bizon | High Roller (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New); G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076987 instead of 0.076478; SSG 08 | Big Iron (Factory New): float at most 0.006113 instead of 0.005668
Craft 1721915 · The Chroma Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 4 108.81₴ · invest 7 593.09₴
profit on prices without salesat least −7 002 ₴ rare inputs

P250 | Muertos (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New); G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076639 instead of 0.076478; SSG 08 | Big Iron (Factory New): float at most 0.005809 instead of 0.005668
Craft 1742002 · The Shadow Collection + The Sport & Field Collection · profit 3 984.21₴ · invest 8 000.33₴
profit on prices without salesat least −7 126 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Galil AR | Rainbow Spoon (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New); G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076572 instead of 0.076478; SSG 08 | Big Iron (Factory New): float at most 0.005750 instead of 0.005668

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Danger Zone Collection + The Shadow Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 4 outcomes

More

How to build