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The Dead Hand Collection + The Overpass Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +3 487.95₴

Invest 4 529.83₴

Average return 8 017.79₴

ROI +77.0%

Chance of profit 90%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 11 895.63₴ · profit at most −3 877.84₴ (at most -32.6%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New) × 1 10% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 37.94 → 81.96 ₴

XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New) × 9 10% of the wear window fits at least ×2.63 4491.89 → 11813.67 ₴

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −4 509 ₴

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Dead Hand Collection + The Overpass Collection

+3 487.95 ₴ +77.0% chance of profit 90%

expensive: USP-S | Road Rash (Factory New) · 10 934.16 ₴ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −4 509 ₴

1× UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0071
9× XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0071

Variant 2 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Overpass Collection

+1 140.92 ₴ +303.7% chance of profit 36%

expensive: Desert Eagle | Directive (Factory New) · 6 110.12 ₴ · chance 18%

sells slowly

1× UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0055
9× XM1014 | Slipstream (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0055

Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Overpass Collection

+316.03 ₴ +74.3% chance of profit 24%

expensive: M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New) · 5 006.99 ₴ · chance 8.0%

rare inputs

6× UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0052
4× P2000 | Turf (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1671

Variant 4 The Prisma Collection instead of The Overpass Collection

+248.83 ₴ +129.2% chance of profit 58%

expensive: AWP | Atheris (Factory New) · 1 190.11 ₴ · chance 18%

1× M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0743
9× MP7 | Mischief (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1625

Variant 5 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Overpass Collection

+245.74 ₴ +58.0% chance of profit 90%

expensive: AWP | Black Box (Factory New) · 1 115.31 ₴ · chance 30%

1× UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0062
9× R8 Revolver | Monarch (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0770

Variant 6 The Mirage Collection instead of The Overpass Collection

+15 927.76 ₴ +154.7% chance of profit 90%

expensive: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) · 29 117.09 ₴ · chance 90%

profit on prices without salesat least −10 278 ₴

1× UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0040
1× UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0040
8× MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0040

How to build

10% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 10% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

UMP-45 | Fragment

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0071

37.94 ₴

at 37.94

Steam

×9

XM1014 | VariCamo Blue

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0071

4 491.89 ₴

at 499.10

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 4 529.83 ₴ +3 487.95 (+77.0%)

profit on prices without sales at least −625 ₴

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

M249 | Bock Blocks

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0766

11.76 ₴

at 11.76

Steam

×8

UMP-45 | Fragment

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0058

303.54 ₴

at 37.94

Steam

×1

XM1014 | VariCamo Blue

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0058

499.10 ₴

at 499.10

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 814.40 ₴ +263.94 (+32.4%)

profit on prices without sales at least −1 107 ₴

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

M249 | Bock Blocks

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0761

11.76 ₴

at 11.76

Steam

×7

UMP-45 | Fragment

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0053

265.60 ₴

at 37.94

Steam

×2

XM1014 | VariCamo Blue

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0053

998.20 ₴

at 499.10

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 275.56 ₴ +670.21 (+52.5%)

profit on prices without sales at least −1 589 ₴

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

M249 | Bock Blocks

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0756

11.76 ₴

at 11.76

Steam

×6

UMP-45 | Fragment

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0049

227.65 ₴

at 37.94

Steam

×3

XM1014 | VariCamo Blue

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0049

1 497.30 ₴

at 499.10

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 736.71 ₴ +1 076.48 (+62.0%)

profit on prices without sales at least −2 071 ₴

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

M249 | Bock Blocks

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0752

11.76 ₴

at 11.76

Steam

×5

UMP-45 | Fragment

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0046

189.71 ₴

at 37.94

Steam

×4

XM1014 | VariCamo Blue

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0046

1 996.40 ₴

at 499.10

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 2 197.87 ₴ +1 482.76 (+67.5%)

What you get 7 outcomes

Profitable outcome 90%
Losing outcome 10%

in profit

AWP | Pink DDPAT

Factory New

7 861.71 ₴ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

best

USP-S | Road Rash

Factory New

12 574.29 ₴ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

Desert Eagle | Firebreathing

Factory New

278.16 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Galil AR | Galigator

Factory New

178.66 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

M4A1-S | Electrum

Factory New

363.92 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP7 | Amberline

Factory New

201.19 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP9 | Urban Sovereign

Factory New

190.78 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +2 780.07 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +3 586.18 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Dead Hand Collection and The Overpass Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 67 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

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profit on prices without salesat least −4 715 ₴ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −4 690 ₴ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −4 536 ₴ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −4 644 ₴ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −4 466 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

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profit on prices without salesat least −4 494 ₴ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −4 479 ₴ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −4 479 ₴ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −4 485 ₴ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −4 522 ₴ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −4 526 ₴ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −4 495 ₴ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −4 496 ₴ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −4 523 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

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profit on prices without salesat least −4 497 ₴ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −4 499 ₴ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −4 499 ₴ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −4 500 ₴ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −4 503 ₴ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −4 527 ₴ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −4 501 ₴ rare inputs

P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.006916 instead of 0.007112
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profit on prices without salesat least −4 501 ₴ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −4 502 ₴ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −4 502 ₴ rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.007008 instead of 0.007112
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profit on prices without salesat least −4 502 ₴ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −4 509 ₴ rare inputs

MAG-7 | MAGnitude (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New)
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profit on prices without salesat least −4 510 ₴ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −4 548 ₴ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −4 744 ₴ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −4 516 ₴ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −4 516 ₴ rare inputs

P2000 | Sure Grip (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.007070 instead of 0.007112
Craft 1735912 · The Italy Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 3 480.25₴ · invest 4 522.66₴
profit on prices without salesat least −4 516 ₴ rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.006871 instead of 0.007112
Craft 1712144 · The Arabesque Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 3 479.54₴ · invest 4 583.29₴
profit on prices without salesat least −4 517 ₴ rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Lunar Wyrm (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New)
Craft 1735463 · The Huntsman Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 3 475.86₴ · invest 4 560.18₴
profit on prices without salesat least −4 521 ₴ rare inputs

SSG 08 | Slashed (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.005861 instead of 0.007112
Craft 1738980 · The Overpass Collection + The Train Collection · profit 3 475.60₴ · invest 4 523.23₴
profit on prices without salesat least −4 521 ₴ rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.006591 instead of 0.007112
Craft 1737303 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 3 472.87₴ · invest 4 628.94₴
profit on prices without salesat least −4 596 ₴ rare inputs

P90 | Cocoa Rampage (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.006871 instead of 0.007112
Craft 1738954 · The Overpass Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 3 467.61₴ · invest 4 601.11₴
profit on prices without salesat least −4 529 ₴ rare inputs

AUG | Signal Scanner (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New)
Craft 1733936 · The Graphic Design Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 3 458.58₴ · invest 4 618.41₴
profit on prices without salesat least −4 538 ₴ rare inputs

XM1014 | Halftone Shift (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.006871 instead of 0.007112
Craft 1733325 · The Glove Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 3 457.13₴ · invest 4 693.21₴
profit on prices without salesat least −4 558 ₴ rare inputs

MAG-7 | Sonar (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.006682 instead of 0.007112
Craft 1711427 · The Anubis Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 3 451.50₴ · invest 4 699.93₴
profit on prices without salesat least −4 677 ₴ rare inputs

MAG-7 | Copper Coated (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New)
Craft 1707607 · The 2021 Train Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 3 446.56₴ · invest 4 637.18₴
profit on prices without salesat least −4 620 ₴ rare inputs

AUG | Amber Fade (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.006591 instead of 0.007112
Craft 1708697 · The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 3 442.83₴ · invest 4 782.71₴
profit on prices without salesat least −4 783 ₴ rare inputs

Souvenir Negev | Infrastructure (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.006742 instead of 0.007112
Craft 1739006 · The Overpass Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 3 441.35₴ · invest 4 633.58₴
profit on prices without salesat least −4 555 ₴ rare inputs

G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.006264 instead of 0.007112
Craft 1726966 · The Dust 2 Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 3 441.18₴ · invest 4 565.51₴
profit on prices without salesat least −4 556 ₴ rare inputs

M4A1-S | VariCamo (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.006871 instead of 0.007112
Craft 1738971 · The Overpass Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 3 436.83₴ · invest 4 610.45₴
profit on prices without salesat least −4 560 ₴ rare inputs

XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.006987 instead of 0.007112
Craft 1737765 · The Operation Hydra Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 3 424.97₴ · invest 4 774.77₴
profit on prices without salesat least −4 668 ₴ rare inputs

MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.006682 instead of 0.007112
Craft 1738058 · The Operation Riptide Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 3 414.36₴ · invest 4 660.75₴
profit on prices without salesat least −4 603 ₴ rare inputs

G3SG1 | Keeping Tabs (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.006955 instead of 0.007112

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Dead Hand Collection + The Overpass Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 7 outcomes

More

How to build