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The Dead Hand Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection

StatTrak™ Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +623.17₽

Invest 1 358.50₽

Average return 1 981.67₽

ROI +45.9%

Chance of profit 41%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 3 368.70₽ · profit at most −1 387.03₽ (at most -41.2%) · chance of profit at most 18%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New) × 3 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.26 329.22 → 744.04 ₽

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear) × 7 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.55 1029.28 → 2624.66 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −820 ₽

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Dead Hand Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection

+623.17 ₽ +45.9% chance of profit 41%

expensive: StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Marina (Factory New) · 5 652.17 ₽ · chance 18%

profit on prices without salesat least −820 ₽

3× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0041
7× StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0746

Variant 2 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Winter Offensive Collection

+577.51 ₽ +102.4% chance of profit 100%

expensive: StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New) · 3 931.63 ₽ · chance 2.5%

sells slowly

9× StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0755
1× StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0048

Variant 3 The Gamma Collection instead of The Winter Offensive Collection

+558.88 ₽ +126.8% chance of profit 98%

expensive: StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Electrum (Factory New) · 1 908.43 ₽ · chance 18%

sells slowly

9× StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741
1× StatTrak™ P250 | Iron Clad (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741

Variant 4 The Shadow Collection instead of The Winter Offensive Collection

+554.78 ₽ +107.2% chance of profit 100%

expensive: StatTrak™ Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New) · 2 597.07 ₽ · chance 2.5%

sells slowly

9× StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0765
1× StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0056

Variant 5 The Snakebite Collection instead of The Winter Offensive Collection

+551.74 ₽ +111.3% chance of profit 94%

expensive: StatTrak™ AK-47 | Slate (Factory New) · 3 854.90 ₽ · chance 2.0%

rare inputs

9× StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0765
1× StatTrak™ Nova | Windblown (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0056

Variant 6 The Horizon Collection instead of The Winter Offensive Collection

+545.33 ₽ +111.6% chance of profit 100%

expensive: StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Electrum (Factory New) · 1 908.43 ₽ · chance 18%

sells slowly

9× StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0766
1× StatTrak™ AUG | Amber Slipstream (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0057

How to build

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×3

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0041

329.22 ₽

at 109.74

Steam

×7

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0746

1 029.28 ₽

at 147.04

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 358.50 ₽ +623.17 (+45.9%)

profit on prices without sales at least −537 ₽

9% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 9% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0773

42.98 ₽

at 42.98

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0064

438.96 ₽

at 109.74

Steam

×5

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0773

735.20 ₽

at 147.04

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 217.14 ₽ +493.62 (+40.6%)

profit on prices without sales at least −363 ₽

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×2

StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0767

85.96 ₽

at 42.98

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0058

438.96 ₽

at 109.74

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0767

588.16 ₽

at 147.04

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 113.08 ₽ +462.23 (+41.5%)

profit on prices without sales at least −188 ₽

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×3

StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0760

128.94 ₽

at 42.98

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0052

438.96 ₽

at 109.74

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0760

441.12 ₽

at 147.04

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 009.02 ₽ +430.83 (+42.7%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 24%
Losing outcome 42%
About break-even 35%

in profit

best

StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Marina

Factory New

6 500.00 ₽ 17.50%

price without deals

Steam

about break-even

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Pulse

Factory New

1 499.99 ₽ 17.50%

Steam

about break-even

StatTrak™ MP9 | Rose Iron

Factory New

1 594.94 ₽ 17.50%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Skull

Factory New

1 390.00 ₽ 17.50%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing

Factory New

1 434.97 ₽ 6.00%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator

Factory New

813.71 ₽ 6.00%

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Electrum

Factory New

2 194.69 ₽ 6.00%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline

Factory New

762.50 ₽ 6.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign

Factory New

736.72 ₽ 6.00%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +290.19 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +615.29 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Dead Hand Collection and The Winter Offensive Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 25 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

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profit on prices without salesat least −1 119 ₽ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −924 ₽ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −935 ₽ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −1 144 ₽ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −820 ₽ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −984 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ AUG | Amber Slipstream (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074240 instead of 0.074692
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profit on prices without salesat least −803 ₽ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −805 ₽ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −810 ₽ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −1 044 ₽ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −848 ₽ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −853 ₽ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −979 ₽ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −1 104 ₽ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −960 ₽ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −853 ₽ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −888 ₽ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −871 ₽ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −899 ₽ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −965 ₽ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −1 127 ₽ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −1 124 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | MAGnitude (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New)
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profit on prices without salesat least −996 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074444 instead of 0.074692

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Dead Hand Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 9 outcomes

More

How to build