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The Dead Hand Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +908.47₴

Invest 1 249.19₴

Average return 2 157.65₴

ROI +72.7%

Chance of profit 36%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 3 267.53₴ · profit at most −1 109.87₴ (at most -34.0%) · chance of profit at most 18%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New) × 1 9% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 37.94 → 81.96 ₴

XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) × 9 9% of the wear window fits at least ×2.63 1211.24 → 3185.57 ₴

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −692 ₴

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Dead Hand Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

+908.47 ₴ +72.7% chance of profit 36%

expensive: Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 8 205.78 ₴ · chance 18%

profit on prices without salesat least −692 ₴

1× UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0060
9× XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0860

Variant 2 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

+1 140.92 ₴ +303.7% chance of profit 36%

expensive: Desert Eagle | Directive (Factory New) · 6 110.12 ₴ · chance 18%

sells slowly

1× UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0055
9× XM1014 | Slipstream (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0055

Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

+316.03 ₴ +74.3% chance of profit 24%

expensive: M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New) · 5 006.99 ₴ · chance 8.0%

rare inputs

6× UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0052
4× P2000 | Turf (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1671

Variant 4 The Prisma Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

+248.83 ₴ +129.2% chance of profit 58%

expensive: AWP | Atheris (Factory New) · 1 190.11 ₴ · chance 18%

1× M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0743
9× MP7 | Mischief (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1625

Variant 5 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

+245.74 ₴ +58.0% chance of profit 90%

expensive: AWP | Black Box (Factory New) · 1 115.31 ₴ · chance 30%

1× UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0062
9× R8 Revolver | Monarch (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0770

Variant 6 The Mirage Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

+15 927.76 ₴ +154.7% chance of profit 90%

expensive: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) · 29 117.09 ₴ · chance 90%

profit on prices without salesat least −10 278 ₴

1× UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0040
1× UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0040
8× MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0040

How to build

9% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 9% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

UMP-45 | Fragment

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0060

37.94 ₴

at 37.94

Steam

×9

XM1014 | Red Python

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0800–0.0860

1 211.24 ₴

at 134.58

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 249.19 ₴ +908.47 (+72.7%)

profit on prices without sales at least −259 ₴

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

M249 | Bock Blocks

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0757

11.76 ₴

at 11.76

Steam

×7

UMP-45 | Fragment

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0050

265.60 ₴

at 37.94

Steam

×2

XM1014 | Red Python

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0800–0.0850

269.17 ₴

at 134.58

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 546.53 ₴ +96.99 (+17.8%)

profit on prices without sales at least −317 ₴

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

M249 | Bock Blocks

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0752

11.76 ₴

at 11.76

Steam

×6

UMP-45 | Fragment

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0045

227.65 ₴

at 37.94

Steam

×3

XM1014 | Red Python

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0800–0.0845

403.75 ₴

at 134.58

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 643.17 ₴ +216.66 (+33.7%)

What you get 10 outcomes

Profitable outcome 36%
Losing outcome 64%

at a loss

PP-Bizon | Blue Streak

Factory New

785.99 ₴ 18.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

best

Desert Eagle | Crimson Web

Factory New

9 436.64 ₴ 18.00%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

Glock-18 | Steel Disruption

Factory New

2 010.97 ₴ 18.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP7 | Ocean Foam

Factory New

555.71 ₴ 18.00%

Steam

at a loss

P90 | Virus

Factory New

860.95 ₴ 18.00%

Steam

at a loss

Desert Eagle | Firebreathing

Factory New

278.16 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Galil AR | Galigator

Factory New

178.66 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

M4A1-S | Electrum

Factory New

363.92 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP7 | Amberline

Factory New

201.19 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP9 | Urban Sovereign

Factory New

190.78 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +549.92 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +783.76 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Dead Hand Collection and The eSports 2014 Summer Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 55 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

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profit on prices without salesat least −662 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

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profit on prices without salesat least −662 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

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profit on prices without salesat least −667 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

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profit on prices without salesat least −669 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

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profit on prices without salesat least −670 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

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profit on prices without salesat least −708 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

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profit on prices without salesat least −671 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

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profit on prices without salesat least −673 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

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profit on prices without salesat least −673 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

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profit on prices without salesat least −682 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

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profit on prices without salesat least −679 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

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profit on prices without salesat least −684 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

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profit on prices without salesat least −678 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

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profit on prices without salesat least −677 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

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profit on prices without salesat least −677 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

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profit on prices without salesat least −678 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

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profit on prices without salesat least −679 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

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profit on prices without salesat least −679 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

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profit on prices without salesat least −679 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

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profit on prices without salesat least −706 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

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profit on prices without salesat least −680 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

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profit on prices without salesat least −688 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

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profit on prices without salesat least −682 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

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profit on prices without salesat least −682 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

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profit on prices without salesat least −682 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

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profit on prices without salesat least −683 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

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profit on prices without salesat least −685 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

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profit on prices without salesat least −710 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

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profit on prices without salesat least −684 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

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profit on prices without salesat least −688 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

P90 | Off World (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085936 instead of 0.086025
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profit on prices without salesat least −684 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

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profit on prices without salesat least −685 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

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profit on prices without salesat least −685 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085950 instead of 0.086025
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profit on prices without salesat least −685 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

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profit on prices without salesat least −692 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAG-7 | MAGnitude (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New)
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profit on prices without salesat least −693 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.083982 instead of 0.086025
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profit on prices without salesat least −731 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085767 instead of 0.086025
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profit on prices without salesat least −926 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

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profit on prices without salesat least −698 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085007 instead of 0.086025
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profit on prices without salesat least −699 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

P2000 | Sure Grip (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085995 instead of 0.086025
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profit on prices without salesat least −699 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085851 instead of 0.086025
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profit on prices without salesat least −700 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | Lunar Wyrm (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New)
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profit on prices without salesat least −704 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

SSG 08 | Slashed (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085102 instead of 0.086025
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profit on prices without salesat least −704 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085647 instead of 0.086025
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profit on prices without salesat least −779 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

P90 | Cocoa Rampage (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085851 instead of 0.086025
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profit on prices without salesat least −712 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

AUG | Signal Scanner (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New)
Craft 1734190 · The Graphic Design Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 879.09₴ · invest 1 337.77₴
profit on prices without salesat least −721 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

XM1014 | Halftone Shift (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085851 instead of 0.086025
Craft 1733716 · The Glove Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 877.64₴ · invest 1 412.57₴
profit on prices without salesat least −741 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAG-7 | Sonar (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085713 instead of 0.086025
Craft 1711715 · The Anubis Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 872.01₴ · invest 1 419.28₴
profit on prices without salesat least −859 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAG-7 | Copper Coated (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New)

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Dead Hand Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 10 outcomes

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How to build