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The Falchion Collection + The Horizon Collection

StatTrak™ Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +440.41₴

Invest 599.30₴

Average return 1 039.70₴

ROI +73.5%

Chance of profit 58%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 1 479.33₴ · profit at most −439.64₴ (at most -29.7%) · chance of profit at most 18%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) × 2 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.21 82.47 → 182.25 ₴

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) × 7 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.55 463.41 → 1181.69 ₴

StatTrak™ AUG | Amber Slipstream (Factory New) × 1 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 53.42 → 115.39 ₴

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −304 ₴

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Horizon Collection

+440.40 ₴ +73.5% chance of profit 58%

expensive: StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth (Minimal Wear) · 3 249.98 ₴ · chance 18%

profit on prices without salesat least −304 ₴

2× StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0745
7× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
1× StatTrak™ AUG | Amber Slipstream (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039

Variant 2 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Horizon Collection

+5 985.54 ₴ +453.6% chance of profit 52%

expensive: StatTrak™ Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New) · 24 263.20 ₴ · chance 13%

profit on prices without salesat least −1 137 ₴

6× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0036
4× StatTrak™ FAMAS | Doomkitty (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0836

Variant 3 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

+4 301.80 ₴ +403.7% chance of profit 30%

expensive: StatTrak™ Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New) · 24 263.20 ₴ · chance 10%

profit on prices without salesat least −915 ₴

7× StatTrak™ AUG | Amber Slipstream (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
3× StatTrak™ FAMAS | Doomkitty (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0839

Variant 4 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Horizon Collection

+3 889.55 ₴ +196.5% chance of profit 38%

expensive: StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 26 120.27 ₴ · chance 18%

profit on prices without salesat least −1 729 ₴

1× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0059
9× StatTrak™ XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0859

Variant 5 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

+3 847.34 ₴ +195.7% chance of profit 36%

expensive: StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 26 120.27 ₴ · chance 18%

profit on prices without salesat least −1 725 ₴

1× StatTrak™ AUG | Amber Slipstream (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0058
9× StatTrak™ XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0858

Variant 6 only The Falchion Collection

+482.62 ₴ +78.8% chance of profit 60%

expensive: StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth (Minimal Wear) · 3 249.98 ₴ · chance 20%

profit on prices without salesat least −308 ₴

2× StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0746
8× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0040

How to build

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×2

StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0745

82.47 ₴

at 41.23

Steam

×7

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0039

463.41 ₴

at 66.20

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ AUG | Amber Slipstream

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0039

53.42 ₴

at 53.42

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 599.30 ₴ +440.41 (+73.5%)

profit on prices without sales at least −302 ₴

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0763

37.68 ₴

at 37.68

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0055

132.40 ₴

at 66.20

Steam

×7

StatTrak™ AUG | Amber Slipstream

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0055

373.95 ₴

at 53.42

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 544.03 ₴ +165.68 (+30.4%)

profit on prices without sales at least −298 ₴

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0762

37.68 ₴

at 37.68

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0054

66.20 ₴

at 66.20

Steam

×8

StatTrak™ AUG | Amber Slipstream

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0054

427.37 ₴

at 53.42

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 531.25 ₴ +123.46 (+23.2%)

profit on prices without sales at least −300 ₴

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×2

StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0744

82.47 ₴

at 41.23

Steam

×6

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

397.21 ₴

at 66.20

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ AUG | Amber Slipstream

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

106.84 ₴

at 53.42

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 586.52 ₴ +398.19 (+67.9%)

What you get 10 outcomes

Profitable outcome 54%
Losing outcome 42%
About break-even 4%

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

328.90 ₴ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

808.00 ₴ 18.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

1 076.75 ₴ 18.00%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

343.39 ₴ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

best

StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth

Minimal Wear

3 737.48 ₴ 18.00%

price without deals

Steam

about break-even

StatTrak™ AWP | PAW

Factory New

719.34 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Eco

Factory New

582.67 ₴ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | High Seas

Factory New

518.96 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

about break-even

StatTrak™ MP7 | Powercore

Factory New

722.69 ₴ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ Nova | Toy Soldier

Factory New

588.47 ₴ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +369.80 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +434.00 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Horizon Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 18 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1727613 · The Falchion Collection + The Phoenix Collection · profit 453.54₴ · invest 609.36₴
profit on prices without salesat least −308 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ AUG | Amber Slipstream (Factory New); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074334 instead of 0.074544; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.003792 instead of 0.003976
Craft 1727830 · The Falchion Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 445.36₴ · invest 614.40₴
profit on prices without salesat least −332 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ AUG | Amber Slipstream (Factory New); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074486 instead of 0.074544; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.003925 instead of 0.003976
Craft 1727884 · The Falchion Collection + The Snakebite Collection · profit 443.76₴ · invest 603.00₴
profit on prices without salesat least −275 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ Nova | Windblown (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ AUG | Amber Slipstream (Factory New); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074486 instead of 0.074544; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.003925 instead of 0.003976
Craft 1720388 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 439.06₴ · invest 596.40₴
profit on prices without salesat least −272 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ M249 | Spectre (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ AUG | Amber Slipstream (Factory New); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074486 instead of 0.074544; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.003925 instead of 0.003976
Craft 1727476 · The Falchion Collection + The Kilowatt Collection · profit 438.58₴ · invest 567.55₴
profit on prices without salesat least −273 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ AUG | Amber Slipstream (Factory New); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074672 instead of 0.074544; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.004088 instead of 0.003976
Craft 1725764 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 437.85₴ · invest 560.97₴
profit on prices without salesat least −274 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Foresight (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ AUG | Amber Slipstream (Factory New); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074673 instead of 0.074544; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.004088 instead of 0.003976
Craft 1727365 · The Falchion Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 437.13₴ · invest 605.40₴
profit on prices without salesat least −314 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Sonar (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ AUG | Amber Slipstream (Factory New); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074417 instead of 0.074544; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.003865 instead of 0.003976
Craft 1727311 · The Falchion Collection + The Gamma Collection · profit 436.93₴ · invest 584.78₴
profit on prices without salesat least −280 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ Nova | Exo (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ AUG | Amber Slipstream (Factory New); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074486 instead of 0.074544; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.003925 instead of 0.003976
Craft 1727203 · The Falchion Collection + The Fracture Collection · profit 434.35₴ · invest 569.23₴
profit on prices without salesat least −281 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ AUG | Amber Slipstream (Factory New); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074673 instead of 0.074544; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.004088 instead of 0.003976
Craft 1717343 · The CS20 Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 433.24₴ · invest 583.60₴
profit on prices without salesat least −303 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ AUG | Amber Slipstream (Factory New); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074611 instead of 0.074544; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.004034 instead of 0.003976
Craft 1727640 · The Falchion Collection + The Prisma 2 Collection · profit 431.98₴ · invest 584.55₴
profit on prices without salesat least −287 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ AUG | Amber Slipstream (Factory New); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074593 instead of 0.074544; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.004019 instead of 0.003976
Craft 1721410 · The Chroma Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 431.69₴ · invest 614.00₴
profit on prices without salesat least −325 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Quicksilver (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ AUG | Amber Slipstream (Factory New); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074486 instead of 0.074544; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.003925 instead of 0.003976
Craft 1722231 · The Clutch Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 430.23₴ · invest 576.85₴
profit on prices without salesat least −281 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Aloha (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ AUG | Amber Slipstream (Factory New)
Craft 1727754 · The Falchion Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 428.78₴ · invest 572.42₴
profit on prices without salesat least −287 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ AUG | Amber Slipstream (Factory New); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074723 instead of 0.074544; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.004133 instead of 0.003976
Craft 1727942 · The Falchion Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit 428.59₴ · invest 584.21₴
profit on prices without salesat least −287 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ AUG | Amber Slipstream (Factory New); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074486 instead of 0.074544; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.003925 instead of 0.003976
Craft 1727718 · The Falchion Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 427.08₴ · invest 574.98₴
profit on prices without salesat least −284 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ AUG | Amber Slipstream (Factory New); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074673 instead of 0.074544; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.004088 instead of 0.003976
Craft 1727911 · The Falchion Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit 426.35₴ · invest 575.81₴
profit on prices without salesat least −289 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ AUG | Amber Slipstream (Factory New); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074486 instead of 0.074544; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.003925 instead of 0.003976
Craft 1716401 · The Breakout Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 424.54₴ · invest 584.40₴
profit on prices without salesat least −296 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Labyrinth (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ AUG | Amber Slipstream (Factory New); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074334 instead of 0.074544; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.003792 instead of 0.003976

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Horizon Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 10 outcomes

More

How to build