Crafts · The Falchion Collection
₸≈
₽ RUB ₴ UAH ₸ KZT $ USD

≈ at the Steam rate on 06.10: 1 ₽ = 5.2744 ₸. This is a conversion, not the regional price.

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The Falchion Collection + The Mirage Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted About the craft Craft 1727507 · ways to build: 5 The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +160 566.85₸
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 103 661.14₸
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 264 227.99₸
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +154.9%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 90%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 264 123.50₸ · profit at most +104.49₸ (at most +0.0%) · chance of profit at most 90%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) × 1 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 379.28 → 819.24 ₸
UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) × 1 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 9757.58 → 21076.38 ₸
MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) × 8 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.59 93524.28 → 242227.89 ₸

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
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To calculator I have items
profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −103 209 ₸ Which itemsIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −103 209 ₸: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)

Craft variants Craft variants The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

+ a third collection
Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Mirage Collection
+160 566.83 ₸ +154.9% chance of profit 90%
expensive: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) · 293 084.12 ₸ · chance 90%
profit on prices without salesat least −103 209 ₸ rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
  • 1× UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
  • 8× MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
Variant 2 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Mirage Collection
+11 726.78 ₸ +310.3% chance of profit 42%
expensive: Desert Eagle | Directive (Factory New) · 61 502.74 ₸ · chance 18%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 16 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0054
  • 9× XM1014 | Slipstream (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0054
Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Mirage Collection
+3 978.81 ₸ +93.3% chance of profit 36%
expensive: M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New) · 50 398.87 ₸ · chance 8.0%
rare inputs
  • 6× UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0046
  • 4× P2000 | Turf (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1651
Variant 4 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Mirage Collection
+2 606.51 ₸ +61.2% chance of profit 92%
expensive: AWP | Black Box (Factory New) · 11 226.34 ₸ · chance 30%
rare inputs
  • 1× UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0059
  • 9× R8 Revolver | Monarch (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0768
Variant 5 only The Mirage Collection
+178 111.71 ₸ +154.9% chance of profit 100%
expensive: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) · 293 084.12 ₸ · chance 100%
profit on prices without salesat least −114 972 ₸ rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038
  • 9× MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038
Variant 6 The Overpass Collection instead of The Falchion Collection
+164 413.66 ₸ +151.8% chance of profit 95%
expensive: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) · 293 084.12 ₸ · chance 90%
profit on prices without salesat least −108 306 ₸ rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
  • 8× MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
  • 1× XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039

How to build Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1
UMP-45 | Riot
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0039
379.28 ₸
at 379.28
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.003982f′ (normalized) 0.005689wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 174 · good ≈ 10
on the market with this float, usually ~11, new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 1 134.46 ₸ · little data: 2.0 d.
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 174) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×1
UMP-45 | Blaze
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0039
9 757.58 ₸
at 9 757.58
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.003982f′ (normalized) 0.049786wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 91 · good ≈ 7
on the market with this float, usually ~7, new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 26 371.85 ₸ · little data: 1.0 d.
Lis-Skins: suitable 5 of 396 · from 9 740.65 ₸ (float 0.0037) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×8
MAC-10 | Amber Fade
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0039
93 524.28 ₸
at 11 690.53
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.003982f′ (normalized) 0.009957wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 37 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0, new ~0.0 per day · little data: 1.0 d.
Lis-Skins: suitable 1 of 62 · from 34 815.11 ₸ (float 0.0039) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs 103 661.14 ₸ +160 566.85 (+154.9%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.013513414 result 0.070000, 0.008108, 0.013513, 0.007027, 0.006757, 0.146892 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

What you get 6 outcomes

  • Profitable outcome 90%
  • Losing outcome 10%
in profit
best
MAG-7 | Bulldozer
Factory New
337 046.73 ₸ 90.00%
price without deals
Steam MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)net 293084.12 you get 0.070000The Mirage Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 91 792.76 ₸ (you get 79 819.78)) · buy orders: 202 sell on Market.CSGO: 105 185.91 ₸ to your card cheapest lot 115 335.49 · lots 4 CSFloat: price does not match Steam — not shown CS.Money: price does not match Steam — not shown Lis-Skins: price does not match Steam — not shown
at a loss
FAMAS | Neural Net
Factory New
3 149.80 ₸ 2.00%
Steam FAMAS | Neural Net (Factory New)net 2738.98 you get 0.008108 sells 28 a week sell now to a buy order: 2 945.42 ₸ (you get 2 561.23)) · buy orders: 9026 sell on Market.CSGO: 2 387.81 ₸ to your card cheapest lot 2 618.25 · lots 88 price ignores float on CSFloat: from 2 412.55 ₸ listings: 122 on CS.Money: ~ 2 484.86 ₸ on Lis-Skins: from 2 430.64 ₸ listings: 275
at a loss
P2000 | Handgun
Factory New
9 035.84 ₸ 2.00%
Steam P2000 | Handgun (Factory New)net 7857.23 you get 0.013513 sells 15 a week sell now to a buy order: 8 674.91 ₸ (you get 7 543.40)) · buy orders: 2687 sell on Market.CSGO: 7 482.54 ₸ to your card cheapest lot 8 204.55 · lots 25 on CSFloat: from 6 469.65 ₸ listings: 68 on CS.Money: ~ 6 867.23 ₸ on Lis-Skins: from 7 084.11 ₸ listings: 71
at a loss
M4A4 | Evil Daimyo
Factory New
4 385.43 ₸ 2.00%
Steam M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New)net 3813.42 you get 0.007027 sells 147 a week sell now to a buy order: 4 276.93 ₸ (you get 3 719.06)) · buy orders: 15649 sell on Market.CSGO: 3 641.53 ₸ to your card cheapest lot 3 992.96 · lots 47 price ignores float on CSFloat: from 3 352.28 ₸ listings: 532 on CS.Money: ~ 4 016.43 ₸ on Lis-Skins: from 3 569.17 ₸ listings: 753
at a loss
worst
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart
Factory New
2 619.52 ₸ 2.00%
Steam MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)net 2277.84 you get 0.006757 sells 95 a week sell now to a buy order: 2 531.86 ₸ (you get 2 201.57)) · buy orders: 15545 sell on Market.CSGO: 1 977.47 ₸ to your card cheapest lot 2 168.29 · lots 33 price ignores float on CSFloat: from 1 987.91 ₸ listings: 214 on CS.Money: ~ 2 087.28 ₸ on Lis-Skins: from 2 010.48 ₸ listings: 256
at a loss
Negev | Loudmouth
Minimal Wear
6 815.07 ₸ 2.00%
Steam Negev | Loudmouth (Minimal Wear)net 5926.12 you get 0.146892 sells ≈4 a week — 6 of 7 days measured sell now to a buy order: 5 689.15 ₸ (you get 4 947.04)) · buy orders: 702 sell on Market.CSGO: 4 309.21 ₸ to your card cheapest lot 4 725.04 · lots 7 on CSFloat: from 4 472.77 ₸ listings: 21 on Lis-Skins: from 4 825.15 ₸ listings: 9
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