The Falchion Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection

StatTrak™ Restricted → Classified

Prices by float: this craft wasn't checked against the market overnight (only the best ones are) or there weren't enough listings — the numbers below are by average prices. «Check floats on Steam» will price it by live listings right now.

Average profit +3 729.81₽

Invest 7 389.21₽

Average return 11 119.02₽

ROI +50.5%

Chance of profit 70%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 16 990.07₽ · profit at most −5 871.05₽ (at most -34.6%) · chance of profit at most 23%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) × 3 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.26 572.97 → 1294.91 ₽

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Minimal Wear) × 4 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.37 2766.24 → 6542.16 ₽

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Factory New) × 3 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.26 4050.00 → 9153.00 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −7 181 ₽

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection

+3 729.81 ₽ +50.5% chance of profit 70%

expensive: StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Factory New) · 21 198.27 ₽ · chance 23%

profit on prices without salesat least −7 181 ₽

3× StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1619
4× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741
3× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0036

Variant 2 The Horizon Collection instead of The Operation Broken Fang Collection

+544.04 ₽ +30.7% chance of profit 37%

expensive: StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Nightmare (Minimal Wear) · 4 426.25 ₽ · chance 30%

sells slowly

1× StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1618
9× StatTrak™ Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1618

Variant 3 The Kilowatt Collection instead of The Operation Broken Fang Collection

+538.71 ₽ +41.4% chance of profit 97%

expensive: StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Factory New) · 2 906.63 ₽ · chance 30%

rare inputs

1× StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1643
6× StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0750
3× StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0750

Variant 4 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

+53 853.88 ₽ +93.8% chance of profit 90%

expensive: StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New) · 139 259.75 ₽ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −10 224 ₽

1× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0037
6× StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0743
3× StatTrak™ P250 | Splash (Factory New) buy 0.0600–0.0605

Variant 5 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Operation Broken Fang Collection

+53 572.30 ₽ +94.4% chance of profit 90%

expensive: StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New) · 139 259.75 ₽ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −9 439 ₽

1× StatTrak™ FAMAS | Neural Net (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0037
6× StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0742
3× StatTrak™ P250 | Splash (Factory New) buy 0.0600–0.0605

Variant 6 The Shattered Web Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

+7 934.34 ₽ +61.6% chance of profit 63%

expensive: StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Minimal Wear) · 35 000.00 ₽ · chance 30%

profit on prices without salesat least −12 890 ₽

1× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0056
2× StatTrak™ P2000 | Obsidian (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0764
7× StatTrak™ AUG | Arctic Wolf (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0056

How to build

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×3

StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1619

572.97 ₽

at 190.99

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

2 766.24 ₽

at 691.56

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0036

4 050.00 ₽

at 1 350.00

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 7 389.21 ₽ +3 729.81 (+50.5%)

profit on prices without sales at least −8 410 ₽

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×2

StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1668

381.98 ₽

at 190.99

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0758

2 766.24 ₽

at 691.56

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0051

5 400.00 ₽

at 1 350.00

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 8 548.22 ₽ +3 568.49 (+41.8%)

profit on prices without sales at least −9 422 ₽

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0043

633.89 ₽

at 633.89

Steam

×5

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0750

3 457.80 ₽

at 691.56

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0043

5 400.00 ₽

at 1 350.00

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 9 491.69 ₽ +3 622.71 (+38.2%)

profit on prices without sales at least −5 383 ₽

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×5

StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1639

954.95 ₽

at 190.99

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0748

2 074.68 ₽

at 691.56

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0042

2 700.00 ₽

at 1 350.00

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 5 729.63 ₽ +3 394.00 (+59.2%)

What you get 6 outcomes

Profitable outcome 70%
Losing outcome 30%

in profit

best

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale

Factory New

24 378.01 ₽ 23.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security

Factory New

13 707.25 ₽ 23.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ USP-S | Monster Mashup

Factory New

10 601.48 ₽ 23.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket

Factory New

5 451.42 ₽ 10.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis

Factory New

2 389.77 ₽ 10.00%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex

Factory New

6 425.09 ₽ 10.00%

price without deals

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +1 786.04 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +3 683.43 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Operation Broken Fang Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 3 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1731172 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection · profit 4 048.23₽ · invest 5 915.96₽
profit on prices without salesat least −5 916 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Petroglyph (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Minimal Wear): 5 pcs instead of 4; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074170 instead of 0.074146; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Factory New): 1 pcs instead of 3; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Factory New): float at most 0.003649 instead of 0.003627
Craft 1735407 · The Huntsman Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection · profit 4 005.93₽ · invest 8 987.30₽
profit on prices without salesat least −8 987 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Antique (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested), StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Factory New); StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Minimal Wear): 5 pcs instead of 4; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074290 instead of 0.074146
Craft 1730195 · The Gallery Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection · profit 3 958.57₽ · invest 5 861.55₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 609 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ P90 | Randy Rush (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested), StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Factory New); StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Minimal Wear): 5 pcs instead of 4; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075254 instead of 0.074146

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 6 outcomes

More

How to build