Crafts · The Falchion Collection
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The Falchion Collection + The Phoenix Collection

Restricted → Classified About the craft Craft 1727624 · ways to build: 5 The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Prices by float: this craft wasn't checked against the market overnight (only the best ones are) or there weren't enough listings — the numbers below are by average prices. «Check floats on Steam» will price it by live listings right now.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +1 828.95₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 2 655.95₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 4 484.90₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +68.9%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 30%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 6 457.60₽ · profit at most −1 972.70₽ (at most -30.6%) · chance of profit at most 30%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) × 1 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 98.51 → 212.78 ₽
SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested) × 3 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.26 697.44 → 1576.21 ₽
FAMAS | Sergeant (Field-Tested) × 6 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.51 1860.00 → 4668.60 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

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To calculator I have items

Craft variants Craft variants The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

+ a third collection
Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Phoenix Collection
+1 828.95 ₽ +68.9% chance of profit 30%
expensive: AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) · 12 694.23 ₽ · chance 30%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 16 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1623
  • 3× SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1623
  • 6× FAMAS | Sergeant (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1623
Variant 2 The Horizon Collection instead of The Phoenix Collection
+2 270.59 ₽ +78.1% chance of profit 20%
expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 17 915.19 ₽ · chance 20%
sells slowly
  • 4× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1635
  • 3× Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1635
  • 3× AWP | PAW (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0041
Variant 3 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Falchion Collection
+2 230.19 ₽ +43.6% chance of profit 93%
expensive: AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) · 12 694.23 ₽ · chance 3.3%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 7 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× USP-S | Guardian (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0054
  • 9× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0761
Variant 4 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Phoenix Collection
+2 186.20 ₽ +50.6% chance of profit 80%
expensive: M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Factory New) · 7 902.74 ₽ · chance 40%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 11 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 2× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1650
  • 8× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0752
Variant 5 The Shattered Web Collection instead of The Falchion Collection
+1 920.50 ₽ +66.0% chance of profit 33%
expensive: AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) · 12 694.23 ₽ · chance 30%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 9 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1616
  • 8× FAMAS | Sergeant (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1616
  • 1× P2000 | Obsidian (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1616
Variant 6 only The Phoenix Collection
+1 909.54 ₽ +64.8% chance of profit 33%
expensive: AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) · 12 694.23 ₽ · chance 33%
sells slowly float out of reach There are enough lots, but the needed float can't be reached with them: the craft can't be put together with the promised wears right now. rare inputs The rarest input sells 16 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 2× SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1646
  • 8× FAMAS | Sergeant (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1646

How to build Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1
Negev | Loudmouth
Field-Tested
buy 0.1500–0.1623
98.51 ₽
at 98.51
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.162332f′ (normalized) 0.043788wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 218 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~1, new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 1 371.79 ₽ · little data: 1.0 d.
×3
SG 553 | Pulse
Field-Tested
buy 0.1500–0.1623
697.44 ₽
at 232.48
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.162332f′ (normalized) 0.124664wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 257 · good ≈ 17
on the market with this float, usually ~18, new per day — can't tell yet, cheapest usually 554.76 ₽ · little data: 0.0 d.
×6
FAMAS | Sergeant
Field-Tested
buy 0.1500–0.1623
1 860.00 ₽
at 310.00
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.162332f′ (normalized) 0.069258wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 111 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0, new ~0.0 per day
Set · 10 pcs 2 655.95 ₽ +1 828.95 (+68.9%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.083333233 result 0.150000, 0.025000, 0.135833, 0.083333, 0.026667, 0.083333 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

What you get 6 outcomes

  • Profitable outcome 30%
  • Losing outcome 70%
in profit
best
AK-47 | Redline
Minimal Wear
14 598.37 ₽ 30.00%
Steam AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear)net 12694.23 you get 0.150000The Phoenix Collection sells 20 a week sell now to a buy order: 14 045.24 ₽ (you get 12 213.25)) · buy orders: 2595 sell on Market.CSGO: 11 394.25 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 12 493.70 · lots 58 on CSFloat: from 10 543.66 ₽ listings: 357 on CS.Money: ~ 11 925.32 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 11 168.96 ₽ listings: 423
at a loss
Nova | Antique
Factory New
1 017.17 ₽ 30.00%
Steam Nova | Antique (Factory New)net 884.50 you get 0.025000The Phoenix Collection sells ≈30 a week — 6 of 7 days measured sell now to a buy order: 1 011.70 ₽ (you get 879.73)) · buy orders: 1579 sell on Market.CSGO: 813.80 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 892.33 · lots 22 on CSFloat: from 767.50 ₽ listings: 78 on CS.Money: ~ 761.50 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 800.90 ₽ listings: 93
at a loss
P90 | Trigon
Minimal Wear
1 132.49 ₽ 30.00%
Steam P90 | Trigon (Minimal Wear)net 984.77 you get 0.135833The Phoenix Collection sells 17 a week no buy orders sell on Market.CSGO: 963.98 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 1 057.00 · lots 22 on CSFloat: from 927.68 ₽ listings: 104 on CS.Money: ~ 887.42 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 960.23 ₽ listings: 85
at a loss
CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket
Minimal Wear
822.81 ₽ 3.33%
Steam CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear)net 715.49 you get 0.083333 sells 32 a week sell now to a buy order: 783.16 ₽ (you get 681.00)) · buy orders: 1955 Market.CSGO: 2 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 616.74 ₽ listings: 33 on CS.Money: ~ 654.43 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 688.69 ₽ listings: 39
at a loss
MP7 | Nemesis
Factory New
2 385.76 ₽ 3.33%
Steam MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New)net 2074.57 you get 0.026667 sells 34 a week sell now to a buy order: 2 380.08 ₽ (you get 2 069.63)) · buy orders: 2273 sell on Market.CSGO: 1 987.81 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 2 179.62 · lots 43 on CSFloat: from 1 884.48 ₽ listings: 91 on CS.Money: ~ 1 960.71 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 1 879.34 ₽ listings: 112
at a loss
worst
SG 553 | Cyrex
Minimal Wear
788.11 ₽ 3.33%
Steam SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)net 685.31 you get 0.083333 sells 56 a week sell now to a buy order: 743.00 ₽ (you get 646.08)) · buy orders: 4267 sell on Market.CSGO: 673.48 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 738.47 · lots 23 on CSFloat: from 593.61 ₽ listings: 67 on CS.Money: ~ 619.31 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 651.86 ₽ listings: 63
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