Crafts · The Falchion Collection
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The Falchion Collection + The Radiant Collection

Restricted → Classified About the craft Craft 1727713 · ways to build: 5 The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +1 701.97₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 1 746.22₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 3 448.19₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +97.5%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 100%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 4 215.51₽ · profit at most −767.32₽ (at most -18.2%) · chance of profit at most 40%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) × 6 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.51 591.06 → 1483.56 ₽
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear) × 4 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.37 1155.16 → 2731.95 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
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To calculator I have items

Craft variants Craft variants The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

+ a third collection
Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Radiant Collection
+1 701.97 ₽ +97.5% chance of profit 100%
expensive: AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Factory New) · 5 591.22 ₽ · chance 40%
sells slowly
  • 6× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1618
  • 4× M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741
Variant 2 The Horizon Collection instead of The Radiant Collection
+2 270.59 ₽ +78.1% chance of profit 20%
expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 17 915.19 ₽ · chance 20%
sells slowly
  • 4× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1635
  • 3× Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1635
  • 3× AWP | PAW (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0041
Variant 3 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Falchion Collection
+2 223.57 ₽ +42.8% chance of profit 100%
expensive: M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Factory New) · 7 902.74 ₽ · chance 45%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 11 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0059
  • 9× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0767
Variant 4 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Radiant Collection
+2 186.20 ₽ +50.6% chance of profit 80%
expensive: M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Factory New) · 7 902.74 ₽ · chance 40%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 11 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 2× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1650
  • 8× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0752
Variant 5 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Radiant Collection
+1 828.95 ₽ +68.9% chance of profit 30%
expensive: AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) · 12 694.23 ₽ · chance 30%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 16 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1623
  • 3× SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1623
  • 6× FAMAS | Sergeant (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1623
Variant 6 The Spectrum 2 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection
+1 762.68 ₽ +70.3% chance of profit 83%
expensive: AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Factory New) · 5 591.22 ₽ · chance 50%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 9 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0740
  • 4× M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0740
  • 5× UMP-45 | Exposure (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0035

How to build Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×6
Negev | Loudmouth
Field-Tested
buy 0.1500–0.1618
591.06 ₽
at 98.51
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.161880f′ (normalized) 0.042902wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 218 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~1, new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 1 371.79 ₽ · little data: 1.0 d.
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 128) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×4
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
Minimal Wear
buy 0.0700–0.0741
1 155.16 ₽
at 288.79
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.074132f′ (normalized) 0.110645wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 397 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
Lis-Skins: suitable 5 of 219 · from 1 002.20 ₽ (float 0.0700) · craft not before 15.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs 1 746.22 ₽ +1 701.97 (+97.5%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.069999900 result 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.022400, 0.070000 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

What you get 4 outcomes

  • Profitable outcome 100%
  • Losing outcome 0%
in profit
best
AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge
Factory New
6 429.90 ₽ 40.00%
Steam AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Factory New)net 5591.22 you get 0.070000The Radiant Collection sells 45 a week sell now to a buy order: 6 204.08 ₽ (you get 5 394.85)) · buy orders: 4085 sell on Market.CSGO: 4 789.43 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 5 251.57 · lots 42 on CSFloat: from 4 708.63 ₽ listings: 145 on CS.Money: ~ 5 150.62 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 5 131.78 ₽ listings: 183
in profit
CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket
Factory New
2 305.66 ₽ 20.00%
Steam CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New)net 2004.92 you get 0.070000 sells 7 a week sell now to a buy order: 2 116.16 ₽ (you get 1 840.13)) · buy orders: 693 sell on Market.CSGO: 1 859.60 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 2 039.04 · lots 20 on CSFloat: from 1 666.91 ₽ listings: 45 on CS.Money: ~ 1 733.72 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 1 731.15 ₽ listings: 45
in profit
MP7 | Nemesis
Factory New
2 385.76 ₽ 20.00%
Steam MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New)net 2074.57 you get 0.022400 sells 34 a week sell now to a buy order: 2 380.08 ₽ (you get 2 069.63)) · buy orders: 2273 sell on Market.CSGO: 1 987.81 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 2 179.62 · lots 43 on CSFloat: from 1 884.48 ₽ listings: 91 on CS.Money: ~ 1 960.71 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 1 879.34 ₽ listings: 112
in profit
worst
SG 553 | Cyrex
Factory New
2 275.90 ₽ 20.00%
price without deals
Steam SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New)net 1979.04 you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 2 255.77 ₽ (you get 1 961.53)) · buy orders: 1006 sell on Market.CSGO: 1 995.93 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 2 188.53 · lots 16 on CSFloat: from 1 786.83 ₽ listings: 66 on CS.Money: ~ 1 814.24 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 1 898.18 ₽ listings: 101
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