to all crafts

The Falchion Collection + The Revolver Case Collection

Restricted → Classified

Average profit +577.51₴

Invest 539.92₴

Average return 1 117.44₴

ROI +107.0%

Chance of profit 93%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 1 350.15₴ · profit at most −232.71₴ (at most -17.2%) · chance of profit at most 7%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) × 8 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.59 412.95 → 1069.54 ₴

PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Field-Tested) × 2 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.21 126.97 → 280.61 ₴

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Revolver Case Collection

+577.52 ₴ +107.0% chance of profit 93%

expensive: AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New) · 2 575.38 ₴ · chance 6.7%

sells slowly

8× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1637
2× PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1637

Variant 2 The Horizon Collection instead of The Revolver Case Collection

+1 189.77 ₴ +78.1% chance of profit 20%

expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 9 387.45 ₴ · chance 20%

sells slowly

4× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1635
3× Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1635
3× AWP | PAW (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0041

Variant 3 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Revolver Case Collection

+1 145.55 ₴ +50.6% chance of profit 80%

expensive: M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Factory New) · 4 140.99 ₴ · chance 40%

sells slowly

2× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1650
8× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0752

Variant 4 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

+1 103.09 ₴ +42.0% chance of profit 90%

expensive: M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Factory New) · 4 140.99 ₴ · chance 45%

sells slowly

1× XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0059
9× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0767

Variant 5 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Revolver Case Collection

+958.36 ₴ +68.9% chance of profit 30%

expensive: AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) · 6 651.70 ₴ · chance 30%

sells slowly

1× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1623
3× SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1623
6× FAMAS | Sergeant (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1623

Variant 6 The Radiant Collection instead of The Revolver Case Collection

+891.82 ₴ +97.5% chance of profit 100%

expensive: AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Factory New) · 2 929.77 ₴ · chance 40%

sells slowly

6× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1618
4× M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741

How to build

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×8

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1637

412.95 ₴

at 51.62

Steam

×2

PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1637

126.97 ₴

at 63.49

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 539.92 ₴ +577.51 (+107.0%)

profit on prices without sales at least −206 ₴

10% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 10% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1731

51.62 ₴

at 51.62

Steam

×8

PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0780

905.92 ₴

at 113.24

Steam

×1

XM1014 | Teclu Burner

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0070

199.13 ₴

at 199.13

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 156.67 ₴ +168.06 (+14.5%)

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×6

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1661

309.71 ₴

at 51.62

Steam

×1

PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1661

63.49 ₴

at 63.49

Steam

×3

PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0756

339.72 ₴

at 113.24

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 712.92 ₴ +463.75 (+65.0%)

What you get 6 outcomes

Profitable outcome 93%
Losing outcome 7%

in profit

CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket

Factory New

1 208.15 ₴ 26.67%

Steam

in profit

MP7 | Nemesis

Factory New

1 250.12 ₴ 26.67%

Steam

in profit

SG 553 | Cyrex

Factory New

1 192.56 ₴ 26.67%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

best

AK-47 | Point Disarray

Factory New

2 961.69 ₴ 6.67%

Steam

at a loss

worst

G3SG1 | The Executioner

Field-Tested

408.93 ₴ 6.67%

Steam

in profit

P90 | Shapewood

Factory New

1 301.87 ₴ 6.67%

price without deals

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +405.95 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +514.83 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Revolver Case Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Revolver Case Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 6 outcomes

More

How to build