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The Falchion Collection + The Shadow Collection

Restricted → Classified

Average profit +556.26₽

Invest 1 227.19₽

Average return 1 783.45₽

ROI +45.3%

Chance of profit 60%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 2 909.20₽ · profit at most −1 125.75₽ (at most -38.7%) · chance of profit at most 13%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) × 6 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.51 591.06 → 1483.56 ₽

M249 | Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested) × 1 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 120.19 → 259.61 ₽

MP7 | Special Delivery (Minimal Wear) × 3 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.26 515.94 → 1166.02 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Shadow Collection

+556.26 ₽ +45.3% chance of profit 60%

expensive: G3SG1 | Flux (Factory New) · 3 304.84 ₽ · chance 13%

sells slowly

6× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1618
1× M249 | Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1618
3× MP7 | Special Delivery (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741

Variant 2 The Horizon Collection instead of The Shadow Collection

+2 270.59 ₽ +78.1% chance of profit 20%

expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 17 915.19 ₽ · chance 20%

sells slowly

4× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1635
3× Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1635
3× AWP | PAW (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0041

Variant 3 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Shadow Collection

+2 186.20 ₽ +50.6% chance of profit 80%

expensive: M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Factory New) · 7 902.74 ₽ · chance 40%

sells slowly

2× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1650
8× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0752

Variant 4 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

+2 016.83 ₽ +39.4% chance of profit 90%

expensive: M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Factory New) · 7 902.74 ₽ · chance 45%

sells slowly

1× MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0058
9× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0767

Variant 5 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Shadow Collection

+1 828.95 ₽ +68.9% chance of profit 30%

expensive: AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) · 12 694.23 ₽ · chance 30%

sells slowly

1× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1623
3× SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1623
6× FAMAS | Sergeant (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1623

Variant 6 The Radiant Collection instead of The Shadow Collection

+1 701.97 ₽ +97.5% chance of profit 100%

expensive: AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Factory New) · 5 591.22 ₽ · chance 40%

sells slowly

6× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1618
4× M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741

How to build

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×6

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1618

591.06 ₽

at 98.51

Steam

×1

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1618

120.19 ₽

at 120.19

Steam

×3

MP7 | Special Delivery

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

515.94 ₽

at 171.98

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 227.19 ₽ +556.26 (+45.3%)

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×3

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1663

295.53 ₽

at 98.51

Steam

×2

MP7 | Special Delivery

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0756

343.96 ₽

at 171.98

Steam

×5

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0756

1 219.10 ₽

at 243.82

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 858.59 ₽ +393.60 (+21.2%)

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1660

98.51 ₽

at 98.51

Steam

×1

MP7 | Special Delivery

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0755

171.98 ₽

at 171.98

Steam

×8

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0755

1 950.56 ₽

at 243.82

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 2 221.05 ₽ +343.63 (+15.5%)

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×4

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1642

394.04 ₽

at 98.51

Steam

×3

MP7 | Special Delivery

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0749

515.94 ₽

at 171.98

Steam

×3

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0749

731.46 ₽

at 243.82

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 641.44 ₽ +454.50 (+27.7%)

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×7

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1639

689.57 ₽

at 98.51

Steam

×2

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1639

240.38 ₽

at 120.19

Steam

×1

MP7 | Special Delivery

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0748

171.98 ₽

at 171.98

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 101.93 ₽ +525.27 (+47.7%)

What you get 6 outcomes

Profitable outcome 60%
Losing outcome 40%

at a loss

CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket

Minimal Wear

822.81 ₽ 20.00%

Steam

in profit

MP7 | Nemesis

Factory New

2 385.76 ₽ 20.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

SG 553 | Cyrex

Minimal Wear

788.11 ₽ 20.00%

Steam

in profit

AK-47 | Frontside Misty

Minimal Wear

2 763.12 ₽ 13.33%

Steam

in profit

best

G3SG1 | Flux

Factory New

3 800.57 ₽ 13.33%

Steam

in profit

SSG 08 | Big Iron

Factory New

2 823.51 ₽ 13.33%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +360.09 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +514.02 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Shadow Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 3 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1741046 · The Revolution Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 725.17₽ · invest 1 028.99₽
sells slowly rare inputs

MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested) instead of Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested): 3 pcs instead of 1; M249 | Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162232 instead of 0.161864; MP7 | Special Delivery (Minimal Wear): 1 pcs instead of 3; MP7 | Special Delivery (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074254 instead of 0.074126
Craft 1741972 · The Shadow Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit 610.60₽ · invest 1 872.03₽
sells slowly rare inputs

M249 | Emerald Poison Dart (Factory New) instead of Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested): 3 pcs instead of 1; M249 | Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163589 instead of 0.161864; MP7 | Special Delivery (Minimal Wear): 2 pcs instead of 3; MP7 | Special Delivery (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074726 instead of 0.074126
Craft 1741941 · The Shadow Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit 564.37₽ · invest 1 770.83₽
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Exposure (Factory New) instead of Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested): 3 pcs instead of 1; M249 | Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164802 instead of 0.161864; MP7 | Special Delivery (Minimal Wear): 2 pcs instead of 3; MP7 | Special Delivery (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075148 instead of 0.074126

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Shadow Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 6 outcomes

More

How to build