Crafts · The Falchion Collection
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The Falchion Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted About the craft Craft 1727995 · ways to build: 5 The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +3 610.91₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 2 108.25₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 5 719.16₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +171.3%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 30%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 5 510.90₽ · profit at most +208.26₽ (at most +3.8%) · chance of profit at most 30%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) × 1 11% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 71.91 → 155.33 ₽
XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) × 9 11% of the wear window fits at least ×2.63 2036.34 → 5355.57 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
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To calculator I have items
profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −1 528 ₽ Which itemsIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −1 528 ₽: Tec-9 | Whiteout (Factory New)

Craft variants Craft variants The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

+ a third collection
Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Train 2025 Collection
+3 610.91 ₽ +171.3% chance of profit 30%
expensive: Tec-9 | Whiteout (Factory New) · 17 131.20 ₽ · chance 30%
profit on prices without salesat least −1 528 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 16 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0078
  • 9× XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0078
Variant 2 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Train 2025 Collection
+2 223.35 ₽ +310.3% chance of profit 42%
expensive: Desert Eagle | Directive (Factory New) · 11 660.68 ₽ · chance 18%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 16 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0054
  • 9× XM1014 | Slipstream (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0054
Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Train 2025 Collection
+754.37 ₽ +93.3% chance of profit 36%
expensive: M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New) · 9 555.43 ₽ · chance 8.0%
rare inputs
  • 6× UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0046
  • 4× P2000 | Turf (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1651
Variant 4 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Train 2025 Collection
+494.18 ₽ +61.2% chance of profit 92%
expensive: AWP | Black Box (Factory New) · 2 128.47 ₽ · chance 30%
rare inputs
  • 1× UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0059
  • 9× R8 Revolver | Monarch (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0768
Variant 5 The Mirage Collection instead of The Train 2025 Collection
+30 442.85 ₽ +154.9% chance of profit 90%
expensive: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) · 55 567.61 ₽ · chance 90%
profit on prices without salesat least −19 568 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
  • 1× UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
  • 8× MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
Variant 6 The Overpass Collection instead of The Train 2025 Collection
+6 702.48 ₽ +77.5% chance of profit 90%
expensive: USP-S | Road Rash (Factory New) · 20 866.97 ₽ · chance 45%
profit on prices without salesat least −8 559 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 1 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0069
  • 9× XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0069

How to build Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

11% of lots fit ≈ enough for 4 contracts · medium (by listings)

Price understated: only 11% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1
UMP-45 | Riot
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0078
71.91 ₽
at 71.91
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.007889f′ (normalized) 0.011271wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 174 · good ≈ 12
on the market with this float, usually ~14, new ~0.5 per day, cheapest usually 215.09 ₽ · little data: 2.0 d.
×9
XM1014 | Run Run Run
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0078
2 036.34 ₽
at 226.26
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.007889f′ (normalized) 0.010567wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 505 · good ≈ 39
on the market with this float, usually ~19, new ~1.65 per day, cheapest usually 1 498.16 ₽ · among lots up to 3 300.00 ₽
Set · 10 pcs 2 108.25 ₽ +3 610.91 (+171.3%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.010638198 result 0.007447, 0.010638, 0.070000, 0.006383, 0.010638, 0.005532, 0.005319, 0.145425 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

What you get 8 outcomes

  • Profitable outcome 30%
  • Losing outcome 70%
at a loss
MAC-10 | Derailment
Factory New
725.39 ₽ 30.00%
Steam MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New)net 630.77 you get 0.007447The Train 2025 Collection sells 74 a week sell now to a buy order: 687.54 ₽ (you get 597.86)) · buy orders: 1828 sell on Market.CSGO: 579.03 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 634.91 · lots 72 price ignores float on CSFloat: from 582.48 ₽ listings: 384 on CS.Money: ~ 574.77 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 550.78 ₽ listings: 620
at a loss
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
Factory New
1 168.47 ₽ 30.00%
Steam Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Factory New)net 1016.06 you get 0.010638The Train 2025 Collection sells 23 a week sell now to a buy order: 1 046.13 ₽ (you get 909.67)) · buy orders: 1772 sell on Market.CSGO: 827.22 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 907.05 · lots 90 on CSFloat: from 853.15 ₽ listings: 284 on CS.Money: ~ 943.95 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 842.02 ₽ listings: 356
in profit
best
Tec-9 | Whiteout
Factory New
19 700.88 ₽ 30.00%
price without deals
Steam Tec-9 | Whiteout (Factory New)net 17131.20 you get 0.070000The Train 2025 Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
no buy orders sell on Market.CSGO: 14 721.28 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 16 141.76 · lots 20 on CSFloat: from 13 421.77 ₽ listings: 207 on CS.Money: ~ 14 491.64 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 13 700.16 ₽ listings: 118
at a loss
FAMAS | Neural Net
Factory New
597.19 ₽ 2.00%
Steam FAMAS | Neural Net (Factory New)net 519.30 you get 0.006383 sells 28 a week sell now to a buy order: 558.44 ₽ (you get 485.60)) · buy orders: 9026 sell on Market.CSGO: 452.72 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 496.41 · lots 88 price ignores float on CSFloat: from 457.41 ₽ listings: 122 on CS.Money: ~ 471.12 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 460.84 ₽ listings: 275
at a loss
P2000 | Handgun
Factory New
1 713.16 ₽ 2.00%
Steam P2000 | Handgun (Factory New)net 1489.70 you get 0.010638 sells 15 a week sell now to a buy order: 1 644.73 ₽ (you get 1 430.20)) · buy orders: 2687 sell on Market.CSGO: 1 418.66 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 1 555.55 · lots 25 on CSFloat: from 1 226.62 ₽ listings: 68 on CS.Money: ~ 1 302.00 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 1 343.12 ₽ listings: 71
at a loss
M4A4 | Evil Daimyo
Factory New
831.46 ₽ 2.00%
Steam M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New)net 723.01 you get 0.005532 sells 147 a week sell now to a buy order: 810.89 ₽ (you get 705.12)) · buy orders: 15649 sell on Market.CSGO: 690.42 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 757.05 · lots 47 price ignores float on CSFloat: from 635.58 ₽ listings: 532 on CS.Money: ~ 761.50 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 676.70 ₽ listings: 753
at a loss
worst
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart
Factory New
496.65 ₽ 2.00%
Steam MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)net 431.87 you get 0.005319 sells 95 a week sell now to a buy order: 480.03 ₽ (you get 417.41)) · buy orders: 15545 sell on Market.CSGO: 374.92 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 411.10 · lots 33 price ignores float on CSFloat: from 376.90 ₽ listings: 214 on CS.Money: ~ 395.74 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 381.18 ₽ listings: 256
at a loss
Negev | Loudmouth
Minimal Wear
1 292.11 ₽ 2.00%
Steam Negev | Loudmouth (Minimal Wear)net 1123.57 you get 0.145425 sells ≈4 a week — 6 of 7 days measured sell now to a buy order: 1 078.64 ₽ (you get 937.94)) · buy orders: 702 sell on Market.CSGO: 817.01 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 895.85 · lots 7 on CSFloat: from 848.02 ₽ listings: 21 on Lis-Skins: from 914.83 ₽ listings: 9
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