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The Falchion Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

Classified → Covert

Average profit +11 027.43₽

Invest 26 310.78₽

Average return 37 338.21₽

ROI +41.9%

Chance of profit 80%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 65 143.77₽ · profit at most −27 805.56₽ (at most -42.7%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New) × 2 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.21 4551.80 → 10059.48 ₽

MP9 | Latte Rush (Field-Tested) × 1 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 1028.48 → 2221.52 ₽

MP9 | Latte Rush (Minimal Wear) × 7 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.55 20730.50 → 52862.77 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −26 311 ₽

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

+11 027.43 ₽ +41.9% chance of profit 80%

expensive: AWP | LongDog (Factory New) · 42 460.45 ₽ · chance 80%

profit on prices without salesat least −26 311 ₽

2× SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0045
1× MP9 | Latte Rush (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1648
7× MP9 | Latte Rush (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0751

Variant 2 The Genesis Collection instead of The Train 2025 Collection

+1 819.71 ₽ +29.6% chance of profit 90%

expensive: AK-47 | The Oligarch (Minimal Wear) · 9 724.13 ₽ · chance 45%

rare inputs

1× SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0763
8× Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1683
1× Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0763

Variant 3 The Gallery Collection instead of The Train 2025 Collection

+1 725.85 ₽ +19.6% chance of profit 90%

expensive: M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Factory New) · 12 264.92 ₽ · chance 45%

sells slowly

1× SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0771
2× UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1705
7× UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0771

Variant 4 The Revolution Collection instead of The Train 2025 Collection

+1 141.07 ₽ +21.2% chance of profit 50%

expensive: M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New) · 8 841.97 ₽ · chance 45%

1× SG 553 | Cyrex (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1639
2× AWP | Duality (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0748
7× P2000 | Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0748

Variant 5 The Overpass 2024 Collection instead of The Train 2025 Collection

+1 042.58 ₽ +10.3% chance of profit 80%

expensive: AK-47 | B the Monster (Minimal Wear) · 13 205.51 ₽ · chance 80%

rare inputs

1× SG 553 | Cyrex (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1636
1× SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0747
8× Zeus x27 | Dragon Snore (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1636

Variant 6 The Recoil Collection instead of The Train 2025 Collection

+920.42 ₽ +15.8% chance of profit 90%

expensive: USP-S | Printstream (Factory New) · 7 709.81 ₽ · chance 45%

rare inputs

1× SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0758
2× P250 | Visions (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0758
7× Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0758

How to build

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×2

SG 553 | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0045

4 551.80 ₽

at 2 275.90

Steam

×1

MP9 | Latte Rush

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1648

1 028.48 ₽

at 1 028.48

Steam

×7

MP9 | Latte Rush

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

20 730.50 ₽

at 2 961.50

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 26 310.78 ₽ +11 027.43 (+41.9%)

profit on prices without sales at least −24 137 ₽

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

SG 553 | Cyrex

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

788.11 ₽

at 788.11

Steam

×2

SG 553 | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0045

4 551.80 ₽

at 2 275.90

Steam

×1

MP9 | Latte Rush

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1648

1 028.48 ₽

at 1 028.48

Steam

×6

MP9 | Latte Rush

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

17 769.00 ₽

at 2 961.50

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 24 137.39 ₽ +10 639.70 (+44.1%)

profit on prices without sales at least −19 791 ₽

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×3

SG 553 | Cyrex

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

2 364.33 ₽

at 788.11

Steam

×2

SG 553 | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0045

4 551.80 ₽

at 2 275.90

Steam

×1

MP9 | Latte Rush

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1648

1 028.48 ₽

at 1 028.48

Steam

×4

MP9 | Latte Rush

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

11 846.00 ₽

at 2 961.50

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 19 790.61 ₽ +9 864.24 (+49.8%)

profit on prices without sales at least −17 617 ₽

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×4

SG 553 | Cyrex

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

3 152.44 ₽

at 788.11

Steam

×2

SG 553 | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0045

4 551.80 ₽

at 2 275.90

Steam

×1

MP9 | Latte Rush

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1648

1 028.48 ₽

at 1 028.48

Steam

×3

MP9 | Latte Rush

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

8 884.50 ₽

at 2 961.50

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 17 617.22 ₽ +9 476.51 (+53.8%)

What you get 3 outcomes

Profitable outcome 80%
Losing outcome 20%

in profit

best

AWP | LongDog

Factory New

48 829.52 ₽ 80.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge

Factory New

21 167.51 ₽ 10.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

17 585.75 ₽ 10.00%

price without deals

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +5 193.87 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +8 544.85 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Train 2025 Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 16 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1736568 · The Kilowatt Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 13 166.71₽ · invest 8 436.14₽
profit on prices without salesat least −3 817 ₽ rare inputs

Zeus x27 | Olympus (Factory New) instead of SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New), MP9 | Latte Rush (Minimal Wear); MP9 | Latte Rush (Field-Tested): 4 pcs instead of 1; MP9 | Latte Rush (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164868 instead of 0.164838
Craft 1729778 · The Fracture Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 12 580.22₽ · invest 7 772.72₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 404 ₽ rare inputs

XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New) instead of SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New), MP9 | Latte Rush (Minimal Wear); MP9 | Latte Rush (Field-Tested): 4 pcs instead of 1; MP9 | Latte Rush (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163068 instead of 0.164838
Craft 1740867 · The Recoil Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 11 871.60₽ · invest 23 485.20₽
profit on prices without salesat least −22 097 ₽ rare inputs

P250 | Visions (Factory New) instead of SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New); MP9 | Latte Rush (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163939 instead of 0.164838; MP9 | Latte Rush (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074848 instead of 0.075161
Craft 1741224 · The Revolution Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 11 862.54₽ · invest 23 764.72₽
profit on prices without salesat least −22 106 ₽ rare inputs

AWP | Duality (Factory New) instead of SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New); MP9 | Latte Rush (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164300 instead of 0.164838; MP9 | Latte Rush (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074974 instead of 0.075161
Craft 1743047 · The Train 2025 Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 11 776.35₽ · invest 27 078.74₽
profit on prices without salesat least −27 079 ₽ rare inputs

Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New) instead of SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New); MP9 | Latte Rush (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163485 instead of 0.164838; MP9 | Latte Rush (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074690 instead of 0.075161
Craft 1723213 · The Clutch Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 11 759.75₽ · invest 23 717.32₽
profit on prices without salesat least −23 060 ₽ rare inputs

AUG | Stymphalian (Factory New) instead of SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New); MP9 | Latte Rush (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163633 instead of 0.164838; MP9 | Latte Rush (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074741 instead of 0.075161
Craft 1725633 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 11 733.26₽ · invest 26 061.54₽
profit on prices without salesat least −24 260 ₽ rare inputs

P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New) instead of SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New)
Craft 1739751 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 11 561.25₽ · invest 24 887.78₽
profit on prices without salesat least −24 888 ₽ rare inputs

MAG-7 | Justice (Factory New) instead of SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New)
Craft 1739326 · The Phoenix Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 11 555.39₽ · invest 14 094.29₽
profit on prices without salesat least −9 675 ₽ rare inputs

Nova | Antique (Factory New) instead of SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New); MP9 | Latte Rush (Field-Tested): 3 pcs instead of 1; MP9 | Latte Rush (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162545 instead of 0.164838; MP9 | Latte Rush (Minimal Wear): 2 pcs instead of 7; MP9 | Latte Rush (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074363 instead of 0.075161
Craft 1742753 · The Spectrum Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 11 480.14₽ · invest 24 948.50₽
profit on prices without salesat least −22 488 ₽ rare inputs

CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Factory New) instead of SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New); MP9 | Latte Rush (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163269 instead of 0.164838; MP9 | Latte Rush (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074615 instead of 0.075161
Craft 1721193 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 11 418.77₽ · invest 25 948.22₽
profit on prices without salesat least −23 821 ₽ rare inputs

UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Factory New) instead of SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New); MP9 | Latte Rush (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164199 instead of 0.164838; MP9 | Latte Rush (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074939 instead of 0.075161
Craft 1742446 · The Snakebite Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 11 231.04₽ · invest 24 516.98₽
profit on prices without salesat least −22 737 ₽ rare inputs

XM1014 | XOXO (Factory New) instead of SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New); MP9 | Latte Rush (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164594 instead of 0.164838; MP9 | Latte Rush (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075076 instead of 0.075161
Craft 1742028 · The Shadow Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 11 182.17₽ · invest 27 498.16₽
profit on prices without salesat least −27 498 ₽ rare inputs

SSG 08 | Big Iron (Factory New) instead of SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New); MP9 | Latte Rush (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163680 instead of 0.164838; MP9 | Latte Rush (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074758 instead of 0.075161
Craft 1728930 · The Fever Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 11 138.27₽ · invest 24 911.44₽
profit on prices without salesat least −22 830 ₽ rare inputs

UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Factory New) instead of SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New)
Craft 1724654 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 11 026.61₽ · invest 23 886.80₽
profit on prices without salesat least −22 942 ₽ rare inputs

UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New) instead of SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New); MP9 | Latte Rush (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162896 instead of 0.164838; MP9 | Latte Rush (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074485 instead of 0.075161
Craft 1733031 · The Genesis Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 10 913.43₽ · invest 27 293.56₽
profit on prices without salesat least −25 625 ₽ rare inputs

Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic (Factory New) instead of SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New)

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 3 outcomes

More

How to build