Crafts · The Falchion Collection
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The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted About the craft Craft 1728009 · ways to build: 5 The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +727.47₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 1 432.19₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 2 159.66₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +50.8%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 45%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 3 565.10₽ · profit at most −1 405.44₽ (at most -39.4%) · chance of profit at most 22%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) × 1 7% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 71.91 → 155.33 ₽
MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) × 2 7% of the wear window fits at least ×2.21 173.36 → 383.13 ₽
UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) × 7 7% of the wear window fits at least ×2.55 1186.92 → 3026.65 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
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To calculator I have items
profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −688 ₽ Which itemsIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −688 ₽: M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New)

Craft variants Craft variants The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

+ a third collection
Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection
+727.47 ₽ +50.8% chance of profit 45%
expensive: M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New) · 6 288.88 ₽ · chance 22%
profit on prices without salesat least −688 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 3 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0048
  • 2× MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1659
  • 7× UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0755
Variant 2 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection
+2 223.35 ₽ +310.3% chance of profit 42%
expensive: Desert Eagle | Directive (Factory New) · 11 660.68 ₽ · chance 18%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 16 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0054
  • 9× XM1014 | Slipstream (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0054
Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection
+754.37 ₽ +93.3% chance of profit 36%
expensive: M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New) · 9 555.43 ₽ · chance 8.0%
rare inputs
  • 6× UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0046
  • 4× P2000 | Turf (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1651
Variant 4 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection
+494.18 ₽ +61.2% chance of profit 92%
expensive: AWP | Black Box (Factory New) · 2 128.47 ₽ · chance 30%
rare inputs
  • 1× UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0059
  • 9× R8 Revolver | Monarch (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0768
Variant 5 The Mirage Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection
+30 442.85 ₽ +154.9% chance of profit 90%
expensive: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) · 55 567.61 ₽ · chance 90%
profit on prices without salesat least −19 568 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
  • 1× UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
  • 8× MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
Variant 6 The Overpass Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection
+6 702.48 ₽ +77.5% chance of profit 90%
expensive: USP-S | Road Rash (Factory New) · 20 866.97 ₽ · chance 45%
profit on prices without salesat least −8 559 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 1 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0069
  • 9× XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0069

How to build Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1
UMP-45 | Riot
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0048
71.91 ₽
at 71.91
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004853f′ (normalized) 0.006934wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 174 · good ≈ 10
on the market with this float, usually ~11, new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 215.09 ₽ · little data: 2.0 d.
×2
MAG-7 | Firestarter
Field-Tested
buy 0.1500–0.1659
173.36 ₽
at 86.68
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.165948f′ (normalized) 0.246392wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 104 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
×7
UMP-45 | Delusion
Minimal Wear
buy 0.0700–0.0755
1 186.92 ₽
at 169.56
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.075547f′ (normalized) 0.053611wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 79 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0, new per day — can't tell yet · little data: 0.0 d.
Set · 10 pcs 1 432.19 ₽ +727.47 (+50.8%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.087499900 result 0.040125, 0.070000, 0.059500, 0.087500, 0.052500, 0.087500, 0.045500, 0.043750, 0.184625 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

What you get 9 outcomes

  • Profitable outcome 45%
  • Losing outcome 55%
at a loss
Glock-18 | Grinder
Factory New
858.36 ₽ 22.50%
Steam Glock-18 | Grinder (Factory New)net 746.40 you get 0.040125The Vanguard Collection sells 64 a week sell now to a buy order: 859.66 ₽ (you get 747.53)) · buy orders: 14620
in profit
best
M4A4 | Griffin
Factory New
7 232.21 ₽ 22.50%
price without deals
Steam M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New)net 6288.88 you get 0.070000The Vanguard Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 6 446.96 ₽ (you get 5 606.05)) · buy orders: 5075
in profit
M4A1-S | Basilisk
Factory New
2 494.55 ₽ 22.50%
Steam M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New)net 2169.17 you get 0.059500The Vanguard Collection sells 40 a week sell now to a buy order: 2 485.27 ₽ (you get 2 161.10)) · buy orders: 4448
at a loss
Sawed-Off | Highwayman
Minimal Wear
257.11 ₽ 22.50%
Steam Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Minimal Wear)net 223.57 you get 0.087500The Vanguard Collection sells 20 a week sell now to a buy order: 213.24 ₽ (you get 185.42)) · buy orders: 2895
at a loss
FAMAS | Neural Net
Factory New
597.19 ₽ 2.00%
Steam FAMAS | Neural Net (Factory New)net 519.30 you get 0.052500 sells 28 a week sell now to a buy order: 558.44 ₽ (you get 485.60)) · buy orders: 9026
at a loss
P2000 | Handgun
Minimal Wear
183.27 ₽ 2.00%
Steam P2000 | Handgun (Minimal Wear)net 159.37 you get 0.087500 sells ≈80 a week — 6 of 7 days measured sell now to a buy order: 173.08 ₽ (you get 150.50)) · buy orders: 7068
at a loss
M4A4 | Evil Daimyo
Factory New
831.46 ₽ 2.00%
Steam M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New)net 723.01 you get 0.045500 sells 147 a week sell now to a buy order: 810.89 ₽ (you get 705.12)) · buy orders: 15649
at a loss
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart
Factory New
496.65 ₽ 2.00%
Steam MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)net 431.87 you get 0.043750 sells 95 a week sell now to a buy order: 480.03 ₽ (you get 417.41)) · buy orders: 15545
at a loss
worst
Negev | Loudmouth
Field-Tested
96.61 ₽ 2.00%
Steam Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested)net 84.01 you get 0.184625 sells 236 a week sell now to a buy order: 87.97 ₽ (you get 76.49)) · buy orders: 17976
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