to all crafts

The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection

StatTrak™ Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +472.51₽

Invest 1 519.36₽

Average return 1 991.87₽

ROI +31.1%

Chance of profit 47%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 3 776.24₽ · profit at most −1 784.37₽ (at most -47.2%) · chance of profit at most 22%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear) × 1 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 71.91 → 155.33 ₽

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) × 2 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.21 206.14 → 455.57 ₽

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New) × 7 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.55 1241.31 → 3165.34 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −397 ₽

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection

+472.51 ₽ +31.1% chance of profit 47%

expensive: StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New) · 3 931.63 ₽ · chance 22%

profit on prices without salesat least −397 ₽

1× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0746
2× StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1632
7× StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0040

Variant 2 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

+11 422.92 ₽ +453.6% chance of profit 52%

expensive: StatTrak™ Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New) · 46 304.35 ₽ · chance 13%

profit on prices without salesat least −2 170 ₽

6× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0036
4× StatTrak™ FAMAS | Doomkitty (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0836

Variant 3 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

+7 422.90 ₽ +196.5% chance of profit 38%

expensive: StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 49 848.43 ₽ · chance 18%

profit on prices without salesat least −3 300 ₽

1× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0059
9× StatTrak™ XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0859

Variant 4 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

+7 380.34 ₽ +193.1% chance of profit 38%

expensive: StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 49 848.43 ₽ · chance 18%

profit on prices without salesat least −3 285 ₽

1× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0745
9× StatTrak™ XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0839

Variant 5 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

+4 296.61 ₽ +23.2% chance of profit 47%

expensive: StatTrak™ Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New) · 46 304.35 ₽ · chance 23%

profit on prices without salesat least −18 187 ₽

2× StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0036
1× StatTrak™ MP9 | Dart (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0036
6× StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New) buy 0.0200–0.0225
1 more

Variant 6 only The Falchion Collection

+921.04 ₽ +78.8% chance of profit 60%

expensive: StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth (Minimal Wear) · 6 202.32 ₽ · chance 20%

profit on prices without salesat least −588 ₽

2× StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0746
8× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0040

How to build

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0746

71.91 ₽

at 71.91

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1632

206.14 ₽

at 103.07

Steam

×7

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0040

1 241.31 ₽

at 177.33

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 519.36 ₽ +472.51 (+31.1%)

profit on prices without sales at least −354 ₽

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×2

StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1648

75.56 ₽

at 37.78

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1648

103.07 ₽

at 103.07

Steam

×7

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0045

1 241.31 ₽

at 177.33

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 419.94 ₽ +448.60 (+31.6%)

profit on prices without sales at least −260 ₽

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×2

StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1645

75.56 ₽

at 37.78

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0750

314.76 ₽

at 78.69

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0044

709.32 ₽

at 177.33

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 099.64 ₽ +275.58 (+25.1%)

profit on prices without sales at least −244 ₽

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×2

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0750

143.82 ₽

at 71.91

Steam

×6

StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0750

472.14 ₽

at 78.69

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0044

354.66 ₽

at 177.33

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 970.62 ₽ +157.94 (+16.3%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 47%
Losing outcome 53%

at a loss

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Grinder

Factory New

900.00 ₽ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Griffin

Factory New

3 079.01 ₽ 22.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

best

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk

Factory New

4 521.38 ₽ 22.50%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Factory New

1 229.52 ₽ 22.50%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

627.68 ₽ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

1 542.00 ₽ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

2 054.89 ₽ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

655.34 ₽ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

190.99 ₽ 2.00%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +157.68 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +408.20 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Vanguard Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 8 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1723221 · The Clutch Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 475.69₽ · invest 1 469.68₽
profit on prices without salesat least −367 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Night Riot (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164248 instead of 0.163269; StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New): float at most 0.004336 instead of 0.004038
Craft 1729784 · The Fracture Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 474.85₽ · invest 1 463.84₽
profit on prices without salesat least −376 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear)
Craft 1742757 · The Spectrum Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 474.36₽ · invest 1 481.92₽
profit on prices without salesat least −376 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Zander (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162381 instead of 0.163269; StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New): float at most 0.003768 instead of 0.004038
Craft 1740874 · The Recoil Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 471.56₽ · invest 1 464.24₽
profit on prices without salesat least −371 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Roadblock (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165634 instead of 0.163269; StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New): float at most 0.004758 instead of 0.004038
Craft 1741230 · The Revolution Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 469.37₽ · invest 1 464.78₽
profit on prices without salesat least −382 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Fragments (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164072 instead of 0.163269; StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New): float at most 0.004282 instead of 0.004038
Craft 1726699 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 469.02₽ · invest 1 460.61₽
profit on prices without salesat least −374 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Foresight (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear)
Craft 1720096 · The Chroma 2 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 467.88₽ · invest 1 502.65₽
profit on prices without salesat least −421 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168335 instead of 0.163269; StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New): float at most 0.005580 instead of 0.004038
Craft 1724661 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 463.39₽ · invest 1 474.98₽
profit on prices without salesat least −380 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Fubar (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168817 instead of 0.163269; StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New): float at most 0.005727 instead of 0.004038

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 9 outcomes

More

How to build