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The Falchion Collection + The Wildfire Collection

Restricted → Classified

Average profit +7 247.83₸

Invest 6 401.29₸

Average return 13 649.12₸

ROI +113.2%

Chance of profit 100%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 15 726.38₸ · profit at most −2 077.26₸ (at most -13.2%) · chance of profit at most 13%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) × 8 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.59 4156.63 → 10765.66 ₸

MAG-7 | Praetorian (Minimal Wear) × 2 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.21 2244.67 → 4960.71 ₸

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Wildfire Collection

+7 247.81 ₸ +113.2% chance of profit 100%

expensive: AWP | Elite Build (Factory New) · 34 683.73 ₸ · chance 6.7%

sells slowly

8× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1634
2× MAG-7 | Praetorian (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0746

Variant 2 The Horizon Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

+11 975.92 ₸ +78.1% chance of profit 20%

expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 94 491.34 ₸ · chance 20%

sells slowly

4× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1635
3× Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1635
3× AWP | PAW (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0041

Variant 3 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

+11 530.81 ₸ +50.6% chance of profit 80%

expensive: M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Factory New) · 41 681.97 ₸ · chance 40%

sells slowly

2× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1650
8× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0752

Variant 4 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

+9 646.54 ₸ +68.9% chance of profit 30%

expensive: AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) · 66 954.06 ₸ · chance 30%

sells slowly

1× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1623
3× SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1623
6× FAMAS | Sergeant (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1623

Variant 5 The Radiant Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

+8 976.84 ₸ +97.5% chance of profit 100%

expensive: AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Factory New) · 29 490.16 ₸ · chance 40%

sells slowly

6× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1618
4× M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741

Variant 6 The Graphic Design Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

+8 674.84 ₸ +45.7% chance of profit 30%

expensive: Desert Eagle | Starcade (Factory New) · 93 906.67 ₸ · chance 15%

sells slowly

7× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1624
3× CZ75-Auto | Slalom (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0743

How to build

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×8

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1634

4 156.63 ₸

at 519.58

Steam

×2

MAG-7 | Praetorian

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0746

2 244.67 ₸

at 1 122.33

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 6 401.29 ₸ +7 247.83 (+113.2%)

profit on prices without sales at least −14 391 ₸

9% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 9% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×2

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1701

1 039.16 ₸

at 519.58

Steam

×3

MAG-7 | Praetorian

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0770

3 367.00 ₸

at 1 122.33

Steam

×5

MAG-7 | Praetorian

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0061

14 548.82 ₸

at 2 909.76

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 18 954.98 ₸ +3 686.47 (+19.4%)

profit on prices without sales at least −11 675 ₸

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×3

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1660

1 558.73 ₸

at 519.58

Steam

×3

MAG-7 | Praetorian

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0755

3 367.00 ₸

at 1 122.33

Steam

×4

MAG-7 | Praetorian

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0048

11 639.06 ₸

at 2 909.76

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 16 564.79 ₸ +4 577.89 (+27.6%)

profit on prices without sales at least −16 333 ₸

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1641

519.58 ₸

at 519.58

Steam

×5

Five-SeveN | Triumvirate

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0749

8 412.09 ₸

at 1 682.42

Steam

×4

MAG-7 | Praetorian

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0043

11 639.06 ₸

at 2 909.76

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 20 570.73 ₸ +3 569.43 (+17.4%)

What you get 6 outcomes

Profitable outcome 100%
Losing outcome 0%

in profit

CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket

Factory New

12 160.90 ₸ 26.67%

Steam

in profit

MP7 | Nemesis

Factory New

12 583.38 ₸ 26.67%

Steam

in profit

worst

SG 553 | Cyrex

Factory New

12 003.94 ₸ 26.67%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

best

AWP | Elite Build

Factory New

39 886.26 ₸ 6.67%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon

Factory New

35 071.76 ₸ 6.67%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

Nova | Hyper Beast

Factory New

13 496.06 ₸ 6.67%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +5 096.57 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +6 388.21 ₸ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Wildfire Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 6 outcomes

More

How to build