The Falchion Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection

StatTrak™ Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: this craft wasn't checked against the market overnight (only the best ones are) or there weren't enough listings — the numbers below are by average prices. «Check floats on Steam» will price it by live listings right now.

Average profit +462.47₴

Invest 647.89₴

Average return 1 110.36₴

ROI +71.4%

Chance of profit 62%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 1 627.18₴ · profit at most −516.82₴ (at most -31.8%) · chance of profit at most 20%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) × 1 7% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 41.23 → 89.06 ₴

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) × 8 7% of the wear window fits at least ×2.59 529.61 → 1371.69 ₴

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear) × 1 7% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 77.05 → 166.42 ₴

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −357 ₴

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection

+462.47 ₴ +71.4% chance of profit 62%

expensive: StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth (Minimal Wear) · 3 249.98 ₴ · chance 18%

profit on prices without salesat least −357 ₴

1× StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0756
8× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0049
1× StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0756

Variant 2 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Winter Offensive Collection

+5 985.54 ₴ +453.6% chance of profit 52%

expensive: StatTrak™ Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New) · 24 263.20 ₴ · chance 13%

profit on prices without salesat least −1 137 ₴

6× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0036
4× StatTrak™ FAMAS | Doomkitty (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0836

Variant 3 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

+5 574.40 ₴ +305.5% chance of profit 55%

expensive: StatTrak™ Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New) · 24 263.20 ₴ · chance 13%

profit on prices without salesat least −1 722 ₴

6× StatTrak™ M249 | Magma (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0036
4× StatTrak™ FAMAS | Doomkitty (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0836

Variant 4 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

+3 894.37 ₴ +195.7% chance of profit 38%

expensive: StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 26 120.27 ₴ · chance 18%

profit on prices without salesat least −1 753 ₴

1× StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0740
9× StatTrak™ XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0835

Variant 5 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Winter Offensive Collection

+3 889.55 ₴ +196.5% chance of profit 38%

expensive: StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 26 120.27 ₴ · chance 18%

profit on prices without salesat least −1 729 ₴

1× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0059
9× StatTrak™ XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0859

Variant 6 only The Falchion Collection

+482.62 ₴ +78.8% chance of profit 60%

expensive: StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth (Minimal Wear) · 3 249.98 ₴ · chance 20%

profit on prices without salesat least −308 ₴

2× StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0746
8× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0040

How to build

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0756

41.23 ₴

at 41.23

Steam

×8

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0049

529.61 ₴

at 66.20

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0756

77.05 ₴

at 77.05

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 647.89 ₴ +462.47 (+71.4%)

profit on prices without sales at least −504 ₴

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×7

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0056

463.41 ₴

at 66.20

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0764

154.10 ₴

at 77.05

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ M249 | Magma

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0056

150.39 ₴

at 150.39

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 767.89 ₴ +373.79 (+48.7%)

profit on prices without sales at least −601 ₴

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×6

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0056

397.21 ₴

at 66.20

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0764

154.10 ₴

at 77.05

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ M249 | Magma

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0056

300.77 ₴

at 150.39

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 852.08 ₴ +305.27 (+35.8%)

profit on prices without sales at least −699 ₴

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×5

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0056

331.01 ₴

at 66.20

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0764

154.10 ₴

at 77.05

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ M249 | Magma

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0056

451.16 ₴

at 150.39

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 936.26 ₴ +236.75 (+25.3%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 62%
Losing outcome 36%
About break-even 2%

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

328.90 ₴ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

808.00 ₴ 18.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

1 076.75 ₴ 18.00%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

343.39 ₴ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

best

StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth

Minimal Wear

3 737.48 ₴ 18.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Marina

Factory New

3 405.96 ₴ 2.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Pulse

Factory New

785.99 ₴ 2.50%

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ MP9 | Rose Iron

Factory New

835.74 ₴ 2.50%

price without deals

Steam

about break-even

StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Skull

Factory New

728.35 ₴ 2.50%

price without deals

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +376.94 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +455.30 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Winter Offensive Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 9 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1727784 · The Falchion Collection + The Revolver Case Collection · profit 449.57₴ · invest 614.34₴
profit on prices without salesat least −327 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Yorick (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074673 instead of 0.075635; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.004088 instead of 0.004930
Craft 1724827 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 446.02₴ · invest 593.37₴
profit on prices without salesat least −265 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074673 instead of 0.075635; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.004088 instead of 0.004930
Craft 1727341 · The Falchion Collection + The Genesis Collection · profit 444.52₴ · invest 596.40₴
profit on prices without salesat least −310 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | MAGnitude (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074673 instead of 0.075635; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.004088 instead of 0.004930
Craft 1727669 · The Falchion Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit 437.52₴ · invest 606.08₴
profit on prices without salesat least −318 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ MP7 | Mischief (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074968 instead of 0.075635; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.004347 instead of 0.004930
Craft 1727240 · The Falchion Collection + The Gallery Collection · profit 433.28₴ · invest 611.22₴
profit on prices without salesat least −298 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Statics (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074673 instead of 0.075635; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.004088 instead of 0.004930
Craft 1727280 · The Falchion Collection + The Gamma 2 Collection · profit 430.69₴ · invest 587.68₴
profit on prices without salesat least −296 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Briefing (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074673 instead of 0.075635; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.004088 instead of 0.004930
Craft 1728038 · The Falchion Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 430.51₴ · invest 637.39₴
profit on prices without salesat least −357 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Photic Zone (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074673 instead of 0.075635; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.004088 instead of 0.004930
Craft 1727517 · The Falchion Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection · profit 428.38₴ · invest 647.44₴
profit on prices without salesat least −298 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ M249 | Deep Relief (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074673 instead of 0.075635; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.004088 instead of 0.004930
Craft 1727175 · The Falchion Collection + The Fever Collection · profit 426.31₴ · invest 580.66₴
profit on prices without salesat least −285 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Resupply (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074673 instead of 0.075635; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.004088 instead of 0.004930

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 9 outcomes

More

How to build