to all crafts

The Fever Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection

Classified → Covert

Average profit +2 537.31₴

Invest 6 247.75₴

Average return 8 785.07₴

ROI +40.6%

Chance of profit 50%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 15 063.43₴ · profit at most −6 278.36₴ (at most -41.7%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear) × 1 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 312.31 → 674.58 ₴

PP-Bizon | High Roller (Minimal Wear) × 4 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.37 2587.65 → 6119.79 ₴

R8 Revolver | Llama Cannon (Minimal Wear) × 5 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.47 3347.80 → 8269.06 ₴

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −2 996 ₴

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Fever Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection

+2 537.32 ₴ +40.6% chance of profit 50%

expensive: AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New) · 12 295.63 ₴ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −2 996 ₴

1× UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741
4× PP-Bizon | High Roller (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741
5× R8 Revolver | Llama Cannon (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741

Variant 2 The Gamma Collection instead of The Spectrum 2 Collection

+2 206.95 ₴ +62.1% chance of profit 55%

expensive: M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New) · 10 977.53 ₴ · chance 5.0%

sells slowly

9× UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0763
1× SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0055

Variant 3 The Kilowatt Collection instead of The Spectrum 2 Collection

+2 122.90 ₴ +66.6% chance of profit 95%

expensive: AWP | Printstream (Factory New) · 7 443.94 ₴ · chance 45%

sells slowly

9× UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0767
1× Zeus x27 | Olympus (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0059

Variant 4 The Fracture Collection instead of The Spectrum 2 Collection

+2 071.68 ₴ +66.2% chance of profit 95%

expensive: AWP | Printstream (Factory New) · 7 443.94 ₴ · chance 45%

sells slowly

9× UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0765
1× XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0056

Variant 5 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Spectrum 2 Collection

+2 027.18 ₴ +60.6% chance of profit 100%

expensive: AWP | Printstream (Factory New) · 7 443.94 ₴ · chance 45%

sells slowly

9× UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0758
1× Nova | Antique (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0051

Variant 6 The Recoil Collection instead of The Spectrum 2 Collection

+2 008.52 ₴ +61.6% chance of profit 95%

expensive: AWP | Printstream (Factory New) · 7 443.94 ₴ · chance 45%

sells slowly

9× UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0768
1× P250 | Visions (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0059

How to build

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

UMP-45 | K.O. Factory

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

312.31 ₴

at 312.31

Steam

×4

PP-Bizon | High Roller

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

2 587.65 ₴

at 646.91

Steam

×5

R8 Revolver | Llama Cannon

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

3 347.80 ₴

at 669.56

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 6 247.75 ₴ +2 537.31 (+40.6%)

profit on prices without sales at least −500 ₴

9% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 9% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×5

UMP-45 | K.O. Factory

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0770

1 561.53 ₴

at 312.31

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | K.O. Factory

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0062

825.93 ₴

at 825.93

Steam

×4

PP-Bizon | High Roller

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0770

2 587.65 ₴

at 646.91

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 4 975.11 ₴ +1 958.85 (+39.4%)

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×6

UMP-45 | K.O. Factory

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0753

1 873.83 ₴

at 312.31

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | K.O. Factory

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0046

825.93 ₴

at 825.93

Steam

×1

M4A1-S | Leaded Glass

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0753

590.97 ₴

at 590.97

Steam

×2

R8 Revolver | Llama Cannon

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0753

1 339.12 ₴

at 669.56

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 4 629.86 ₴ +1 933.88 (+41.8%)

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×7

UMP-45 | K.O. Factory

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0746

2 186.14 ₴

at 312.31

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | K.O. Factory

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0040

825.93 ₴

at 825.93

Steam

×1

M4A1-S | Leaded Glass

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0746

590.97 ₴

at 590.97

Steam

×1

R8 Revolver | Llama Cannon

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0746

669.56 ₴

at 669.56

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 4 272.60 ₴ +1 920.91 (+45.0%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 50%
Losing outcome 5%
About break-even 45%

in profit

best

AK-47 | The Empress

Factory New

14 139.97 ₴ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

about break-even

P250 | See Ya Later

Factory New

6 917.19 ₴ 45.00%

Steam

in profit

AWP | Printstream

Factory New

8 560.53 ₴ 5.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

FAMAS | Bad Trip

Factory New

3 981.54 ₴ 5.00%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +1 753.51 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +2 312.76 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Fever Collection and The Spectrum 2 Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 9 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1742664 · The Spectrum 2 Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 2 555.50₴ · invest 6 964.57₴
profit on prices without salesat least −4 258 ₴ rare inputs

AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear)
Craft 1739692 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit 2 549.48₴ · invest 6 340.21₴
profit on prices without salesat least −3 633 ₴ rare inputs

MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear)
Craft 1721123 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit 2 503.48₴ · invest 6 626.71₴
profit on prices without salesat least −3 363 ₴ rare inputs

P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear); PP-Bizon | High Roller (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074498 instead of 0.074131; R8 Revolver | Llama Cannon (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074498 instead of 0.074131
Craft 1731563 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit 2 498.77₴ · invest 6 653.21₴
profit on prices without salesat least −3 946 ₴ rare inputs

MP9 | Airlock (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear)
Craft 1741147 · The Revolution Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit 2 449.36₴ · invest 6 225.03₴
profit on prices without salesat least −3 084 ₴ rare inputs

P2000 | Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear)
Craft 1726620 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit 2 374.26₴ · invest 6 332.20₴
profit on prices without salesat least −3 159 ₴ rare inputs

MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear)
Craft 1740795 · The Recoil Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit 2 367.68₴ · invest 6 235.85₴
profit on prices without salesat least −3 165 ₴ rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear)
Craft 1730695 · The Gallery Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit 2 357.17₴ · invest 6 466.79₴
profit on prices without salesat least −3 176 ₴ rare inputs

UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear)
Craft 1723133 · The Clutch Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit 2 338.24₴ · invest 6 296.79₴
profit on prices without salesat least −3 418 ₴ rare inputs

USP-S | Cortex (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear)

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Fever Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 4 outcomes

More

How to build