Crafts · The Fracture Collection
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The Fracture Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted About the craft Craft 1729782 · ways to build: 5 The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +758.79₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 1 452.40₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 2 211.19₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +52.2%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 45%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 3 720.47₽ · profit at most −1 509.28₽ (at most -40.6%) · chance of profit at most 22%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New) × 1 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 30.52 → 65.92 ₽
G3SG1 | Murky (Minimal Wear) × 1 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 65.40 → 141.26 ₽
UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) × 8 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.59 1356.48 → 3513.28 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
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To calculator I have items
profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −656 ₽ Which itemsIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −656 ₽: M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New)

Craft variants Craft variants The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

+ a third collection
Variant 1 this one The Fracture Collection + The Vanguard Collection
+758.79 ₽ +52.2% chance of profit 45%
expensive: M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New) · 6 288.88 ₽ · chance 22%
profit on prices without salesat least −656 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 6 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038
  • 1× G3SG1 | Murky (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0743
  • 8× UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0743
Variant 2 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection
+2 201.02 ₽ +326.0% chance of profit 36%
expensive: Desert Eagle | Directive (Factory New) · 11 660.68 ₽ · chance 18%
sells slowly
  • 1× SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0054
  • 9× XM1014 | Slipstream (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0054
Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection
+745.12 ₽ +133.1% chance of profit 32%
expensive: M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New) · 9 555.43 ₽ · chance 8.0%
rare inputs
  • 6× SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0046
  • 4× P2000 | Turf (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1651
Variant 4 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection
+492.64 ₽ +64.3% chance of profit 90%
expensive: AWP | Black Box (Factory New) · 2 128.47 ₽ · chance 30%
  • 1× SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0059
  • 9× R8 Revolver | Monarch (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0768
Variant 5 The Prisma Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection
+462.82 ₽ +128.1% chance of profit 54%
expensive: AWP | Atheris (Factory New) · 2 271.23 ₽ · chance 18%
  • 1× PP-Bizon | Runic (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0743
  • 9× MP7 | Mischief (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1625
Variant 6 The Mirage Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection
+30 420.51 ₽ +155.1% chance of profit 90%
expensive: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) · 55 567.61 ₽ · chance 90%
profit on prices without salesat least −19 590 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
  • 1× UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
  • 8× MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039

How to build Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0038
30.52 ₽
at 30.52
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.003840f′ (normalized) 0.005486wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 611 · good ≈ 8
Market history: no data yet
×1
G3SG1 | Murky
Minimal Wear
buy 0.0700–0.0743
65.40 ₽
at 65.40
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.074389f′ (normalized) 0.297558wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 63 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
×8
UMP-45 | Delusion
Minimal Wear
buy 0.0700–0.0743
1 356.48 ₽
at 169.56
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.074389f′ (normalized) 0.049619wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 79 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0, new per day — can't tell yet · little data: 0.0 d.
Set · 10 pcs 1 452.40 ₽ +758.79 (+52.2%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.069999900 result 0.036100, 0.056000, 0.047600, 0.070000, 0.056000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.056000, 0.070000 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

What you get 9 outcomes

  • Profitable outcome 45%
  • Losing outcome 55%
at a loss
Glock-18 | Grinder
Factory New
858.36 ₽ 22.50%
Steam Glock-18 | Grinder (Factory New)net 746.40 you get 0.036100The Vanguard Collection sells 64 a week sell now to a buy order: 859.66 ₽ (you get 747.53)) · buy orders: 14620 sell on Market.CSGO: 655.26 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 718.49 · lots 83 on CSFloat: from 598.75 ₽ listings: 435 on CS.Money: ~ 641.58 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 636.44 ₽ listings: 280
in profit
best
M4A4 | Griffin
Factory New
7 232.21 ₽ 22.50%
price without deals
Steam M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New)net 6288.88 you get 0.056000The Vanguard Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 6 446.96 ₽ (you get 5 606.05)) · buy orders: 5075 sell on Market.CSGO: 5 459.36 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 5 986.15 · lots 39 on CSFloat: from 5 139.49 ₽ listings: 59 on CS.Money: ~ 5 554.07 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 5 386.18 ₽ listings: 158
in profit
M4A1-S | Basilisk
Factory New
2 494.55 ₽ 22.50%
Steam M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New)net 2169.17 you get 0.047600The Vanguard Collection sells 40 a week sell now to a buy order: 2 485.27 ₽ (you get 2 161.10)) · buy orders: 4448 sell on Market.CSGO: 2 099.78 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 2 302.40 · lots 57 on CSFloat: from 2 082.35 ₽ listings: 186 on CS.Money: ~ 2 108.90 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 2 060.08 ₽ listings: 211
at a loss
Sawed-Off | Highwayman
Factory New
603.94 ₽ 22.50%
Steam Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Factory New)net 525.17 you get 0.070000The Vanguard Collection sells 7 a week no buy orders sell on Market.CSGO: 410.40 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 450.00 · lots 12 on CSFloat: from 352.91 ₽ listings: 22 on CS.Money: ~ 364.05 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 389.74 ₽ listings: 27
at a loss
Galil AR | Connexion
Factory New
203.46 ₽ 2.00%
Steam Galil AR | Connexion (Factory New)net 176.92 you get 0.056000 sells 136 a week sell now to a buy order: 213.24 ₽ (you get 185.42)) · buy orders: 22391 sell on Market.CSGO: 161.68 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 177.29 · lots 40 on CSFloat: from 157.61 ₽ listings: 232 on CS.Money: ~ 158.47 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 164.46 ₽ listings: 230
at a loss
MAC-10 | Allure
Factory New
278.54 ₽ 2.00%
Steam MAC-10 | Allure (Factory New)net 242.21 you get 0.070000 sells 90 a week no buy orders sell on Market.CSGO: 232.96 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 255.44 · lots 13 on CSFloat: from 211.58 ₽ listings: 207 on CS.Money: ~ 221.00 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 214.15 ₽ listings: 94
at a loss
MAG-7 | Monster Call
Factory New
320.00 ₽ 2.00%
Steam MAG-7 | Monster Call (Factory New)net 278.26 you get 0.070000 sells 69 a week sell now to a buy order: 297.39 ₽ (you get 258.60)) · buy orders: 16312 sell on Market.CSGO: 253.73 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 278.22 · lots 29 on CSFloat: from 222.71 ₽ listings: 177 on CS.Money: ~ 247.55 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 256.12 ₽ listings: 88
at a loss
worst
MP5-SD | Kitbash
Factory New
170.48 ₽ 2.00%
Steam MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New)net 148.24 you get 0.056000 sells 130 a week no buy orders sell on Market.CSGO: 133.79 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 146.70 · lots 89 on CSFloat: from 152.47 ₽ listings: 188 on CS.Money: ~ 109.64 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 121.63 ₽ listings: 176
at a loss
Tec-9 | Brother
Factory New
294.08 ₽ 2.00%
Steam Tec-9 | Brother (Factory New)net 255.72 you get 0.070000 sells 186 a week no buy orders sell on Market.CSGO: 204.68 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 224.43 · lots 191 on CSFloat: from 205.58 ₽ listings: 163 on Lis-Skins: from 203.87 ₽ listings: 1387
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