Classified → Covert
About the craftCraft 1730737 · ways to build: 5The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profitAverage profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment.+27.05$
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam».105.80$
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances.132.85$
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment.+25.6%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input.100%
If buying now (with float)
invest at least 244.43$
· profit at most −111.59$
(at most -45.6%) · chance of profit at most 0%
An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.
!
The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) × 45% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.3721.21 → 50.16 $
UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) × 45% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.3747.35 → 111.99 $
CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Factory New) × 25% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.2137.24 → 82.29 $
Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.
Craft variants
Craft variants
The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.
sells slowlyfloat out of reachThere are enough lots, but the needed float can't be reached with them: the craft can't be put together with the promised wears right now.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 5 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
sells slowlyfloat out of reachThere are enough lots, but the needed float can't be reached with them: the craft can't be put together with the promised wears right now.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 17 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
sells slowlyfloat out of reachThere are enough lots, but the needed float can't be reached with them: the craft can't be put together with the promised wears right now.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 4 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
sells slowlyfloat out of reachThere are enough lots, but the needed float can't be reached with them: the craft can't be put together with the promised wears right now.
sells slowlyrare inputsThe rarest input sells 4 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.pricier variants existPattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
How to build
Ways to build
5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.
!
5% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (by listings)
Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×4
UMP-45 | Neo-Noir
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1620
(0% of this wear's listings)
21.21 $
at 5.30
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.162079f′ (normalized) 0.162079wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 103 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · little data: 2.9 d.
Lis-Skins: suitable 1 of 71 · from 14.64 $ (float 0.1563) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×4
UMP-45 | Neo-Noir
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0742
(0% of this wear's listings)
47.35 $
at 11.84
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.074201f′ (normalized) 0.074201wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 70 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · little data: 2.0 d.
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 105) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×2
CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0036
(0% of this wear's listings)
37.24 $
at 18.62
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.003676f′ (normalized) 0.006564wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 65 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · little data: 2.9 d.
Lis-Skins: suitable 2 of 107 · from 92.47 $ (float 0.0006) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs105.80 $
+27.05
(+25.6%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.095825202result 0.070000, 0.057238, 0.043121, 0.067078«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
12% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (by listings)
Price understated: only 12% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×5
UMP-45 | Neo-Noir
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1769
(0% of this wear's listings)
26.51 $
at 5.30
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.176984f′ (normalized) 0.176984wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 103 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · little data: 2.9 d.
Lis-Skins: suitable 1 of 71 · from 14.64 $ (float 0.1563) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×5
CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0082
(3% of this wear's listings)
93.09 $
at 18.62
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.008212f′ (normalized) 0.014665wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 65 · good ≈ 2
on the market with this float, usually ~2,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 101.39 $ · little data: 2.9 d.
Lis-Skins: suitable 3 of 107 · from 77.06 $ (float 0.0043) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs119.60 $
+17.29
(+14.4%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.095825202result 0.070000, 0.057238, 0.043121, 0.067078«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
8% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×3
UMP-45 | Neo-Noir
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1678
(0% of this wear's listings)
15.91 $
at 5.30
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.167880f′ (normalized) 0.167880wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 103 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · little data: 2.9 d.
Lis-Skins: suitable 1 of 71 · from 14.64 $ (float 0.1563) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×3
AWP | Fever Dream
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0762
(≈0% of this wear's listings)
47.92 $
at 15.97
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.076219f′ (normalized) 0.138580wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 229 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
Lis-Skins: suitable 28 of 240 · from 13.87 $ (float 0.0701) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×4
CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0054
(0% of this wear's listings)
74.47 $
at 18.62
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.005441f′ (normalized) 0.009717wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 65 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · little data: 2.9 d.
Lis-Skins: suitable 3 of 107 · from 77.06 $ (float 0.0043) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs138.30 $
+1.27
(+0.9%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.095825202result 0.043121, 0.067078, 0.070000, 0.057238«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
7% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (by listings)
Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×5
UMP-45 | Neo-Noir
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1658
(0% of this wear's listings)
26.51 $
at 5.30
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.165870f′ (normalized) 0.165870wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 103 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · little data: 2.9 d.
Lis-Skins: suitable 1 of 71 · from 14.64 $ (float 0.1563) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×1
P250 | Epicenter
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0755
(4% of this wear's listings)
10.81 $
at 10.81
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.075520f′ (normalized) 0.094400wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 99 · good ≈ 3
on the market with this float, usually ~4,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 24.27 $ · little data: 2.9 d.
Lis-Skins: suitable 3 of 127 · from 14.49 $ (float 0.0715) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×4
CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0048
(0% of this wear's listings)
74.47 $
at 18.62
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004830f′ (normalized) 0.008625wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 65 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · little data: 2.9 d.
Lis-Skins: suitable 3 of 107 · from 77.06 $ (float 0.0043) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs111.79 $
+23.74
(+21.2%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.095825202result 0.070000, 0.057238, 0.043121, 0.067078«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
7% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (by listings)
Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×3
UMP-45 | Neo-Noir
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1656
(0% of this wear's listings)
15.91 $
at 5.30
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.165674f′ (normalized) 0.165674wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 103 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · little data: 2.9 d.
Lis-Skins: suitable 1 of 71 · from 14.64 $ (float 0.1563) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×6
UMP-45 | Neo-Noir
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0754
(0% of this wear's listings)
71.03 $
at 11.84
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.075451f′ (normalized) 0.075451wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 70 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · little data: 2.0 d.
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 105) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×1
CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0047
(0% of this wear's listings)
18.62 $
at 18.62
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004770f′ (normalized) 0.008518wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 65 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · little data: 2.9 d.
Lis-Skins: suitable 3 of 107 · from 77.06 $ (float 0.0043) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs105.55 $
+25.95
(+24.6%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.095825202result 0.070000, 0.057238, 0.043121, 0.067078«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
Another set, profit no worse than the best by%
What you get
4 outcomes
Profitable outcome 100%
Losing outcome 0%
in profit
worst
Glock-18 | Gold Toof
Factory New
134.70 $40.00%
SteamGlock-18 | Gold Toof (Factory New)net 117.13you get 0.070000sells 8 a weeksell now to a buy order: 135.02 $
(you get 117.41)) · buy orders: 3092
sell on Market.CSGO: 123.17 $ to your card
cheapest lot 135.06 · lots 40
on CSFloat: from 111.45 $listings: 88
on CS.Money: ~ 114.90 $
on Lis-Skins: from 114.83 $listings: 170
in profit
M4A1-S | Vaporwave
Factory New
164.66 $40.00%
SteamM4A1-S | Vaporwave (Factory New)net 143.18you get 0.057238sells 15 a weeksell now to a buy order: 166.99 $
(you get 145.21)) · buy orders: 3407
sell on Market.CSGO: 151.39 $ to your card
cheapest lot 166.00 · lots 18
on CSFloat: from 135.00 $listings: 171
on CS.Money: ~ 153.45 $
on Lis-Skins: from 142.18 $listings: 174
in profit
best
AK-47 | Bloodsport
Factory New
195.05 $10.00%
SteamAK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)net 169.60you get 0.043121The Spectrum Collectionsells 50 a weeksell now to a buy order: 192.08 $
(you get 167.02)) · buy orders: 2792
sell on Market.CSGO: 156.89 $ to your card
cheapest lot 172.03 · lots 36
on CSFloat: from 147.64 $listings: 354
on CS.Money: ~ 163.07 $
on Lis-Skins: from 157.43 $listings: 366
in profit
USP-S | Neo-Noir
Factory New
135.26 $10.00%
SteamUSP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New)net 117.62you get 0.067078The Spectrum Collectionsells 29 a weeksell now to a buy order: 134.56 $
(you get 117.01)) · buy orders: 1233
sell on Market.CSGO: 109.02 $ to your card
cheapest lot 119.54 · lots 20
on CSFloat: from 102.52 $listings: 82
on CS.Money: ~ 117.02 $
on Lis-Skins: from 107.57 $listings: 159
More
In a week, when the outcome can be sold
from outcome price history
In a bad week+3.33 $a worse week happens one time in ten
In a typical week+15.14 $historical median
If you repeat
10 000 simulations over the outcome odds
I already have items
enter their float — I'll pick what to buy
Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Gallery Collection and The Spectrum Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.
Third collection
add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more
All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.
Market check
at night · fresher — with «Check floats on Steam»
How to read these numbers
«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.
f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.
Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.
The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.
Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.
