Classified → Covert
About the craftCraft 1730767 · ways to build: 3The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profitAverage profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment.+864.90₴
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam».5 813.74₴
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances.6 678.64₴
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment.+14.9%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input.55%
If buying now (with float)
invest at least 13 935.80₴
· profit at most −7 257.16₴
(at most -52.1%) · chance of profit at most 5%
An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.
!
The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
P250 | Epicenter (Minimal Wear) × 75% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.553397.41 → 8663.39 ₴
UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) × 25% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.211062.69 → 2348.55 ₴
M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Field-Tested) × 15% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.161353.64 → 2923.86 ₴
Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.
Craft variants
Craft variants
The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.
sells slowlyfloat out of reachThere are enough lots, but the needed float can't be reached with them: the craft can't be put together with the promised wears right now.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 11 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
sells slowlyfloat out of reachThere are enough lots, but the needed float can't be reached with them: the craft can't be put together with the promised wears right now.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 17 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
sells slowlyfloat out of reachThere are enough lots, but the needed float can't be reached with them: the craft can't be put together with the promised wears right now.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 4 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
sells slowlyfloat out of reachThere are enough lots, but the needed float can't be reached with them: the craft can't be put together with the promised wears right now.
sells slowlyrare inputsThe rarest input sells 4 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.pricier variants existPattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
How to build
Ways to build
3 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.
!
5% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (by listings)
Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×7
P250 | Epicenter
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0740
(2% of this wear's listings)
3 397.41 ₴
at 485.34
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.074091f′ (normalized) 0.092614wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 99 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~2,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 1 152.53 ₴ · little data: 2.9 d.
×2
UMP-45 | Neo-Noir
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0740
(0% of this wear's listings)
1 062.69 ₴
at 531.35
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.074091f′ (normalized) 0.074091wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 70 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · little data: 2.0 d.
×1
M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1617
(5% of this wear's listings)
1 353.64 ₴
at 1 353.64
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.161764f′ (normalized) 0.161764wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 33 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~2,
new ~0.31 per day, cheapest usually 2 723.21 ₴
Set · 10 pcs5 813.74 ₴
+864.90
(+14.9%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.095825202result 0.070000, 0.057238, 0.095825, 0.086243«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −2 123 ₴
!
7% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (by listings)
Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×6
UMP-45 | Neo-Noir
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0756
(0% of this wear's listings)
3 188.07 ₴
at 531.35
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.075614f′ (normalized) 0.075614wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 70 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · little data: 2.0 d.
×1
P250 | Epicenter
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0049
(3% of this wear's listings)
999.36 ₴
at 999.36
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004912f′ (normalized) 0.006140wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 55 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~2,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 2 900.26 ₴ · little data: 1.0 d.
×3
M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1661
(5% of this wear's listings)
4 060.92 ₴
at 1 353.64
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.166141f′ (normalized) 0.166141wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 33 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~2,
new ~0.31 per day, cheapest usually 2 723.21 ₴
Set · 10 pcs8 248.34 ₴
+103.51
(+1.2%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.095825202result 0.070000, 0.057238, 0.095825, 0.086243«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −835 ₴
!
6% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (by listings)
Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×2
P250 | Epicenter
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0744
(2% of this wear's listings)
970.69 ₴
at 485.34
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.074438f′ (normalized) 0.093048wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 99 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~2,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 1 152.53 ₴ · little data: 2.9 d.
×6
UMP-45 | Neo-Noir
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0744
(0% of this wear's listings)
3 188.07 ₴
at 531.35
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.074438f′ (normalized) 0.074438wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 70 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · little data: 2.0 d.
×2
M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1627
(5% of this wear's listings)
2 707.28 ₴
at 1 353.64
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.162761f′ (normalized) 0.162761wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 33 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~2,
new ~0.31 per day, cheapest usually 2 723.21 ₴
Set · 10 pcs6 866.04 ₴
+649.21
(+9.5%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.095825202result 0.070000, 0.057238, 0.095825, 0.086243«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
Another set, profit no worse than the best by%
What you get
4 outcomes
Profitable outcome 55%
Losing outcome 45%
at a loss
worst
Glock-18 | Gold Toof
Factory New
6 045.92 ₴45.00%
SteamGlock-18 | Gold Toof (Factory New)net 5257.32you get 0.070000sells 8 a weeksell now to a buy order: 6 060.36 ₴
(you get 5 269.87)) · buy orders: 3092
sell on Market.CSGO: 5 528.60 ₴ to your card
cheapest lot 6 062.06 · lots 40
on CSFloat: from 5 002.36 ₴listings: 88
on CS.Money: ~ 5 157.21 ₴
on Lis-Skins: from 5 154.07 ₴listings: 170
in profit
M4A1-S | Vaporwave
Factory New
7 390.76 ₴45.00%
SteamM4A1-S | Vaporwave (Factory New)net 6426.74you get 0.057238sells 15 a weeksell now to a buy order: 7 495.41 ₴
(you get 6 517.75)) · buy orders: 3407
sell on Market.CSGO: 6 795.00 ₴ to your card
cheapest lot 7 450.65 · lots 18
on CSFloat: from 6 059.39 ₴listings: 171
on CS.Money: ~ 6 887.50 ₴
on Lis-Skins: from 6 381.65 ₴listings: 174
in profit
AK-47 | AUTOEXEC
Minimal Wear
15 606.54 ₴5.00%
SteamAK-47 | AUTOEXEC (Minimal Wear)net 13570.91you get 0.095825The Spy Tech Collectionsells 7 a weeksell now to a buy order: 15 704.83 ₴
(you get 13 656.37)) · buy orders: 321
sell on Market.CSGO: 12 855.04 ₴ to your card
cheapest lot 14 095.44 · lots 8
on CSFloat: from 12 485.47 ₴listings: 23
on CS.Money: ~ 13 826.62 ₴
on Lis-Skins: from 12 916.37 ₴listings: 31
sell now to a buy order: 14 583.95 ₴
(you get 12 681.69)) · buy orders: 366
sell on Market.CSGO: 14 982.85 ₴ to your card
cheapest lot 16 428.57 · lots 6
on CSFloat: from 11 845.87 ₴listings: 29
on CS.Money: ~ 13 397.97 ₴
on Lis-Skins: from 12 142.11 ₴listings: 30
More
In a week, when the outcome can be sold
from outcome price history
In a bad week-293.02 ₴a worse week happens one time in ten
In a typical week+316.56 ₴historical median
If you repeat
10 000 simulations over the outcome odds
I already have items
enter their float — I'll pick what to buy
Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Gallery Collection and The Spy Tech Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.
Third collection
add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more
All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.
Similar
3 crafts almost like this one
The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.
Craft 1730853
· The Gallery Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 855.86₴
· invest 5 066.37₴
Craft 1730625
· The Gallery Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 822.66₴
· invest 4 858.34₴
sells slowlyrare inputs
SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested) instead of M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Field-Tested)
Craft 1725883
· The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Gallery Collection · profit 800.65₴
· invest 4 856.85₴
sells slowlyrare inputs
MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear) instead of M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Field-Tested); P250 | Epicenter (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074468 instead of 0.074091; UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074468 instead of 0.074091
Market check
at night · fresher — with «Check floats on Steam»
How to read these numbers
«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.
f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.
Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.
The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.
Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.
