Crafts · The Lake Collection
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The Lake Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted About the craft Craft 1736815 · ways to build: 5 The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +727.02₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 1 400.39₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 2 127.41₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +51.9%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 45%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 3 496.41₽ · profit at most −1 369.00₽ (at most -39.1%) · chance of profit at most 22%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New) × 1 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 40.11 → 86.64 ₽
MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) × 2 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.21 173.36 → 383.13 ₽
UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) × 7 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.55 1186.92 → 3026.65 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
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To calculator I have items
profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −688 ₽ Which itemsIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −688 ₽: M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New)

Craft variants Craft variants The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

+ a third collection
Variant 1 this one The Lake Collection + The Vanguard Collection
+727.02 ₽ +51.9% chance of profit 45%
expensive: M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New) · 6 288.88 ₽ · chance 22%
profit on prices without salesat least −688 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 3 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038
  • 2× MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1627
  • 7× UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0744
Variant 2 The Mirage Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection
+30 370.83 ₽ +154.6% chance of profit 90%
expensive: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) · 55 567.61 ₽ · chance 90%
profit on prices without salesat least −19 640 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× P90 | Teardown (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
  • 1× UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
  • 8× MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
Variant 3 The Overpass Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection
+6 654.64 ₽ +77.3% chance of profit 90%
expensive: USP-S | Road Rash (Factory New) · 20 866.97 ₽ · chance 45%
profit on prices without salesat least −8 606 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 1 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0044
  • 9× XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0044
Variant 4 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection
+3 563.07 ₽ +171.6% chance of profit 30%
expensive: Tec-9 | Whiteout (Factory New) · 17 131.20 ₽ · chance 30%
profit on prices without salesat least −1 576 ₽
  • 1× SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0043
  • 9× XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0043
Variant 5 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Lake Collection
+1 839.58 ₽ +74.1% chance of profit 38%
expensive: Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 15 660.06 ₽ · chance 18%
profit on prices without salesat least −1 371 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 3 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy. pricier variants exist Pattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
  • 1× UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0745
  • 9× XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0839
Variant 6 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection
+1 731.89 ₽ +73.6% chance of profit 36%
expensive: Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 15 660.06 ₽ · chance 18%
profit on prices without salesat least −1 322 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 3 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy. pricier variants exist Pattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
  • 1× SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
  • 9× XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0839

How to build Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1
SG 553 | Anodized Navy
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0038
40.11 ₽
at 40.11
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.003883f′ (normalized) 0.048541wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 1 953 · good ≈ 26
Market history: no data yet
×2
MAG-7 | Firestarter
Field-Tested
buy 0.1500–0.1627
173.36 ₽
at 86.68
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.162759f′ (normalized) 0.238975wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 104 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
×7
UMP-45 | Delusion
Minimal Wear
buy 0.0700–0.0744
1 186.92 ₽
at 169.56
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.074438f′ (normalized) 0.049786wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 79 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0, new per day — can't tell yet · little data: 0.0 d.
Set · 10 pcs 1 400.39 ₽ +727.02 (+51.9%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.087499900 result 0.040125, 0.070000, 0.059500, 0.087500, 0.035000 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

What you get 5 outcomes

  • Profitable outcome 45%
  • Losing outcome 55%
at a loss
Glock-18 | Grinder
Factory New
858.36 ₽ 22.50%
Steam Glock-18 | Grinder (Factory New)net 746.40 you get 0.040125The Vanguard Collection sells 64 a week sell now to a buy order: 859.66 ₽ (you get 747.53)) · buy orders: 14620 sell on Market.CSGO: 655.26 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 718.49 · lots 83 on CSFloat: from 598.75 ₽ listings: 435 on CS.Money: ~ 641.58 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 636.44 ₽ listings: 280
in profit
best
M4A4 | Griffin
Factory New
7 232.21 ₽ 22.50%
price without deals
Steam M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New)net 6288.88 you get 0.070000The Vanguard Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 6 446.96 ₽ (you get 5 606.05)) · buy orders: 5075 sell on Market.CSGO: 5 459.36 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 5 986.15 · lots 39 on CSFloat: from 5 139.49 ₽ listings: 59 on CS.Money: ~ 5 554.07 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 5 386.18 ₽ listings: 158
in profit
M4A1-S | Basilisk
Factory New
2 494.55 ₽ 22.50%
Steam M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New)net 2169.17 you get 0.059500The Vanguard Collection sells 40 a week sell now to a buy order: 2 485.27 ₽ (you get 2 161.10)) · buy orders: 4448 sell on Market.CSGO: 2 099.78 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 2 302.40 · lots 57 on CSFloat: from 2 082.35 ₽ listings: 186 on CS.Money: ~ 2 108.90 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 2 060.08 ₽ listings: 211
at a loss
Sawed-Off | Highwayman
Minimal Wear
257.11 ₽ 22.50%
Steam Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Minimal Wear)net 223.57 you get 0.087500The Vanguard Collection sells 20 a week sell now to a buy order: 213.24 ₽ (you get 185.42)) · buy orders: 2895 sell on Market.CSGO: 182.12 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 199.70 · lots 31 on CSFloat: from 176.46 ₽ listings: 18 on CS.Money: ~ 191.02 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 183.31 ₽ listings: 61
at a loss
worst
Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz
Factory New
70.22 ₽ 10.00%
Steam Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Factory New)net 61.06 you get 0.035000 sells ≈852 a week — 6 of 7 days measured sell now to a buy order: 62.16 ₽ (you get 54.05)) · buy orders: 18774 sell on Market.CSGO: 51.03 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 55.96 · lots 82 on CSFloat: from 51.39 ₽ listings: 285 on CS.Money: ~ 55.68 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 52.25 ₽ listings: 334
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