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The Operation Hydra Collection + The Overpass Collection

Restricted → Classified

Average profit +97.14$

Invest 349.31$

Average return 446.44$

ROI +27.8%

Chance of profit 90%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 845.02$ · profit at most −398.58$ (at most -47.2%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

SSG 08 | Death's Head (Factory New) × 1 8% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 28.14 → 60.78 $

Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) × 4 8% of the wear window fits at least ×2.37 86.09 → 203.60 $

AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear) × 5 8% of the wear window fits at least ×2.47 235.08 → 580.64 $

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −345 $

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Operation Hydra Collection + The Overpass Collection

+97.14 $ +27.8% chance of profit 90%

expensive: M4A1-S | Master Piece (Factory New) · 477.15 $ · chance 90%

profit on prices without salesat least −345 $

1× SSG 08 | Death's Head (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0053
4× Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1674
5× AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0760

Variant 2 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Overpass Collection

+15.07 $ +28.5% chance of profit 40%

expensive: M4A4 | Hellfire (Factory New) · 294.48 $ · chance 3.3%

sells slowly

1× P90 | Death Grip (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1616
1× SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1616
8× FAMAS | Sergeant (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1616

Variant 3 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Overpass Collection

+14.87 $ +18.1% chance of profit 100%

expensive: M4A4 | Hellfire (Factory New) · 294.48 $ · chance 3.3%

sells slowly

1× SSG 08 | Death's Head (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0057
9× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0765

Variant 4 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Operation Hydra Collection

+113.97 $ +67.1% chance of profit 50%

expensive: M4A1-S | Master Piece (Factory New) · 477.15 $ · chance 50%

profit on prices without salesat least −155 $

4× Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1620
1× AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741
1× Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1620
1 more

Variant 5 The Spectrum 2 Collection instead of The Operation Hydra Collection

+110.48 $ +109.4% chance of profit 40%

expensive: M4A1-S | Master Piece (Factory New) · 477.15 $ · chance 40%

profit on prices without salesat least −92 $

4× Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1626
6× UMP-45 | Exposure (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038

Variant 6 The Shadow Collection instead of The Operation Hydra Collection

+109.64 $ +91.5% chance of profit 60%

expensive: M4A1-S | Master Piece (Factory New) · 477.15 $ · chance 40%

profit on prices without salesat least −106 $

4× Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1621
6× MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0037

How to build

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

SSG 08 | Death's Head

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0053

28.14 $

at 28.14

Steam

×4

Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1674

86.09 $

at 21.52

souvenirSteam

×5

AWP | Pink DDPAT

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0760

235.08 $

at 47.02

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 349.31 $ +97.14 (+27.8%)

profit on prices without sales at least −225 $

9% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 9% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

P90 | Death Grip

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1714

21.28 $

at 21.28

Steam

×6

SSG 08 | Death's Head

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0065

168.84 $

at 28.14

Steam

×3

Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1714

64.57 $

at 21.52

souvenirSteam

Set · 10 pcs 254.68 $ +7.53 (+3.0%)

profit on prices without sales at least −251 $

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

P250 | Red Rock

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0752

26.84 $

at 26.84

Steam

×4

SSG 08 | Death's Head

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0045

112.56 $

at 28.14

Steam

×4

Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1650

86.09 $

at 21.52

souvenirSteam

×1

AWP | Pink DDPAT

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0752

47.02 $

at 47.02

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 272.50 $ +51.12 (+18.8%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 90%
Losing outcome 10%

in profit

best

M4A1-S | Master Piece

Factory New

548.72 $ 90.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike

Factory New

102.96 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

Galil AR | Sugar Rush

Factory New

145.25 $ 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

M4A4 | Hellfire

Factory New

338.65 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week -24.28 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +83.63 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Operation Hydra Collection and The Overpass Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 5 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1715890 · The Bravo Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 97.11$ · invest 345.94$
profit on prices without salesat least −337 $ rare inputs

M4A4 | Zirka (Minimal Wear) instead of SSG 08 | Death's Head (Factory New); Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163548 instead of 0.167473; AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074712 instead of 0.076077
Craft 1737305 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 95.75$ · invest 342.88$
profit on prices without salesat least −341 $ rare inputs

UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Factory New) instead of SSG 08 | Death's Head (Factory New); Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.167819 instead of 0.167473; AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076197 instead of 0.076077
Craft 1714534 · The Bank Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 95.25$ · invest 334.59$
profit on prices without salesat least −334 $ rare inputs

AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Factory New) instead of SSG 08 | Death's Head (Factory New); Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168107 instead of 0.167473; AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076298 instead of 0.076077
Craft 1739003 · The Overpass Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 91.07$ · invest 349.31$
profit on prices without salesat least −338 $ rare inputs

Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear) instead of SSG 08 | Death's Head (Factory New); Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.166099 instead of 0.167473; AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075599 instead of 0.076077
Craft 1734650 · The Havoc Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 88.69$ · invest 402.89$
profit on prices without salesat least −403 $ rare inputs

SG 553 | Hypnotic (Factory New) instead of SSG 08 | Death's Head (Factory New); Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162625 instead of 0.167473; AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074391 instead of 0.076077

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Operation Hydra Collection + The Overpass Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 4 outcomes

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How to build