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The Operation Hydra Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +845.48₴

Invest 1 494.13₴

Average return 2 339.61₴

ROI +56.6%

Chance of profit 42%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 3 796.60₴ · profit at most −1 456.99₴ (at most -38.4%) · chance of profit at most 20%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New) × 1 8% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 282.88 → 611.03 ₴

XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) × 9 8% of the wear window fits at least ×2.63 1211.24 → 3185.57 ₴

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −851 ₴

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Operation Hydra Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

+845.48 ₴ +56.6% chance of profit 42%

expensive: Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 8 205.78 ₴ · chance 18%

profit on prices without salesat least −851 ₴

1× MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0057
9× XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0857

Variant 2 The Overpass Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

+3 424.97 ₴ +71.7% chance of profit 90%

expensive: USP-S | Road Rash (Factory New) · 10 934.16 ₴ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −4 668 ₴

1× MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0066
9× XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0066

Variant 3 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

+1 805.01 ₴ +133.7% chance of profit 38%

expensive: Tec-9 | Whiteout (Factory New) · 8 976.64 ₴ · chance 30%

profit on prices without salesat least −985 ₴

1× MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0074
9× XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0074

Variant 4 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

+1 058.07 ₴ +43.9% chance of profit 76%

expensive: Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New) · 5 136.96 ₴ · chance 23%

profit on prices without salesat least −2 089 ₴

3× MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0035
7× MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New) buy 0.0200–0.0225

Variant 5 only The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

+1 028.13 ₴ +76.4% chance of profit 40%

expensive: Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 8 205.78 ₴ · chance 20%

profit on prices without salesat least −750 ₴

10× XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0856

Variant 6 The Vanguard Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

+354.92 ₴ +35.7% chance of profit 55%

expensive: AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Factory New) · 4 293.96 ₴ · chance 2.0%

profit on prices without salesat least −483 ₴

1× Tec-9 | Cut Out (Well-Worn) buy 0.3800–0.3840
5× UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0745
4× G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0040

How to build

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

MAG-7 | Hard Water

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0057

282.88 ₴

at 282.88

Steam

×9

XM1014 | Red Python

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0800–0.0857

1 211.24 ₴

at 134.58

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 494.13 ₴ +845.48 (+56.6%)

What you get 10 outcomes

Profitable outcome 40%
Losing outcome 56%
About break-even 4%

at a loss

PP-Bizon | Blue Streak

Factory New

785.99 ₴ 18.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

best

Desert Eagle | Crimson Web

Factory New

9 436.64 ₴ 18.00%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

Glock-18 | Steel Disruption

Factory New

2 010.97 ₴ 18.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

MP7 | Ocean Foam

Factory New

555.71 ₴ 18.00%

Steam

at a loss

P90 | Virus

Factory New

860.95 ₴ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

AK-47 | Orbit Mk01

Factory New

4 938.05 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

about break-even

P2000 | Woodsman

Factory New

1 678.41 ₴ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

P250 | Red Rock

Factory New

2 107.16 ₴ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

about break-even

P90 | Death Grip

Factory New

1 766.49 ₴ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

SSG 08 | Death's Head

Factory New

1 185.04 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +455.72 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +711.12 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Operation Hydra Collection and The eSports 2014 Summer Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 6 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1707727 · The 2021 Train Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 867.08₴ · invest 1 356.54₴
profit on prices without salesat least −803 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

AUG | Amber Fade (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085647 instead of 0.085713
Craft 1709208 · The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 863.35₴ · invest 1 502.06₴
profit on prices without salesat least −966 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Souvenir Negev | Infrastructure (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085757 instead of 0.085713
Craft 1743273 · The eSports 2013 Winter Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 861.86₴ · invest 1 352.94₴
profit on prices without salesat least −738 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085405 instead of 0.085713
Craft 1727115 · The Dust 2 Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 861.69₴ · invest 1 284.86₴
profit on prices without salesat least −738 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A1-S | VariCamo (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085851 instead of 0.085713
Craft 1743073 · The Train 2025 Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 857.34₴ · invest 1 329.80₴
profit on prices without salesat least −743 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085935 instead of 0.085713
Craft 1738438 · The Operation Riptide Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 834.87₴ · invest 1 380.11₴
profit on prices without salesat least −785 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

G3SG1 | Keeping Tabs (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085912 instead of 0.085713

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Operation Hydra Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 10 outcomes

More

How to build