StatTrak™
Classified → Covert
About the craftCraft 1740200 · ways to build: 5StatTrak™ craft. Inputs and outcome are StatTrak: a normal item won't do here, and the outcome sells at the StatTrak price, not at the price of its normal counterpart.The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Prices by float: this craft wasn't checked against the market overnight (only the best ones are) or there weren't enough listings — the numbers below are by average prices. «Check floats on Steam» will price it by live listings right now.
Average profitAverage profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment.+23 709.19₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam».39 343.72₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances.63 052.91₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment.+60.3%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input.45%
If buying now (with float)
invest at least 96 797.58₽
· profit at most −33 744.67₽
(at most -34.9%) · chance of profit at most 45%
An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.
!
The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested) × 17% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.16703.39 → 1519.32 ₽
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear) × 37% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.266835.89 → 15449.11 ₽
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Factory New) × 67% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.5131804.44 → 79829.14 ₽
Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.
Sell on a marketplace: CSFloat — outcomes: 1.
They have no price on Steam (above its price cap or nobody listed them); they are counted at the marketplace's cheapest listing minus its fee, ignoring pattern and float, — that is 45.0% of the probability. Money from the marketplace is real money you can withdraw, while the investment comes from the Steam balance. Without them (as zero, like before) the profit is -29 138.36 ₽.
Craft variants
Craft variants
The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.
marketplace pricesells slowly55% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
продажа ненадёжнаmarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly55% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.float out of reachThere are enough lots, but the needed float can't be reached with them: the craft can't be put together with the promised wears right now.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
продажа ненадёжнаmarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly55% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.float out of reachThere are enough lots, but the needed float can't be reached with them: the craft can't be put together with the promised wears right now.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
продажа ненадёжнаmarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly50% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
marketplace pricesells slowly55% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
продажа ненадёжнаmarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly55% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
How to build
Ways to build
5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.
!
7% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×1
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1661
(3% of this wear's listings)
703.39 ₽
at 703.39
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.166165f′ (normalized) 0.051304wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 34 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~1,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 4 290.76 ₽
Lis-Skins: suitable 1 of 126 · from 3 818.64 ₽ (float 0.1609) · craft not before 15.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×3
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0756
(≈0% of this wear's listings)
6 835.89 ₽
at 2 278.63
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.075622f′ (normalized) 0.075622wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 6 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 14) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×6
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0049
(≈1% of this wear's listings)
31 804.44 ₽
at 5 300.74
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004919f′ (normalized) 0.004919wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 2 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 4) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs39 343.72 ₽
+23 709.19
(+60.3%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.030769131result 0.070000, 0.018461, 0.021538, 0.024615«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
7% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×4
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher
Field-Tested
buy0.2500–0.2591
(4% of this wear's listings)
4 630.12 ₽
at 1 157.53
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.259100f′ (normalized) 0.016547wear 0.2500–0.3800on the market 24 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~1,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 13 254.12 ₽
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 49) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×3
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0756
(≈0% of this wear's listings)
6 835.89 ₽
at 2 278.63
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.075600f′ (normalized) 0.075600wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 6 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 14) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×3
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0049
(≈1% of this wear's listings)
15 902.22 ₽
at 5 300.74
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004900f′ (normalized) 0.004900wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 2 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 4) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs27 368.23 ₽
+22 218.39
(+81.2%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.030769131result 0.070000, 0.018461, 0.021538, 0.024615«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
6% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×5
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher
Field-Tested
buy0.2500–0.2581
(4% of this wear's listings)
5 787.65 ₽
at 1 157.53
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.258131f′ (normalized) 0.014784wear 0.2500–0.3800on the market 24 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~1,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 13 254.12 ₽
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 49) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×3
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0750
(≈0% of this wear's listings)
6 835.89 ₽
at 2 278.63
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.075003f′ (normalized) 0.075003wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 6 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 14) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×2
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0043
(≈1% of this wear's listings)
10 601.48 ₽
at 5 300.74
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004378f′ (normalized) 0.004378wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 2 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 4) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs23 225.02 ₽
+21 872.84
(+94.2%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.030769131result 0.021538, 0.024615, 0.070000, 0.018461«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
6% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×1
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1640
(3% of this wear's listings)
703.39 ₽
at 703.39
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.164059f′ (normalized) 0.047176wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 34 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~1,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 4 290.76 ₽
Lis-Skins: suitable 1 of 126 · from 3 818.64 ₽ (float 0.1609) · craft not before 15.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×1
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher
Field-Tested
buy0.2500–0.2579
(4% of this wear's listings)
1 157.53 ₽
at 1 157.53
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.257946f′ (normalized) 0.014448wear 0.2500–0.3800on the market 24 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~1,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 13 254.12 ₽
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 49) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×3
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0748
(≈0% of this wear's listings)
6 835.89 ₽
at 2 278.63
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.074890f′ (normalized) 0.074890wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 6 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 14) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×5
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0042
(≈1% of this wear's listings)
26 503.70 ₽
at 5 300.74
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004279f′ (normalized) 0.004279wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 2 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 4) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs35 200.51 ₽
+23 363.63
(+66.4%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.030769131result 0.070000, 0.018461, 0.021538, 0.024615«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
6% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×6
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher
Field-Tested
buy0.2500–0.2573
(0% of this wear's listings)
6 945.18 ₽
at 1 157.53
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.257348f′ (normalized) 0.013361wear 0.2500–0.3800on the market 24 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 49) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×3
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0745
(≈0% of this wear's listings)
6 835.89 ₽
at 2 278.63
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.074522f′ (normalized) 0.074522wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 6 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 14) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×1
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0039
(≈1% of this wear's listings)
5 300.74 ₽
at 5 300.74
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.003956f′ (normalized) 0.003956wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 2 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 4) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs19 081.81 ₽
+21 527.29
(+112.8%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.030769131result 0.021538, 0.024615, 0.070000, 0.018461«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
Another set, profit no worse than the best by%
What you get
4 outcomes
Profitable outcome 45%
Losing outcome 50%
About break-even 5%
in profit
best
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel
Factory New
119 835.71 ₽45.00%
sell on CSFloat
SteamStatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)net 117438.99you get 0.070000The Vanguard Collectionno price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 119 835.71 ₽listings 8 · you get 117 438.99 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternsell now to a buy order: 107 067.21 ₽
(you get 93 101.92)) · buy orders: 430Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price
on CSFloat: from 119 835.71 ₽listings: 8
on Lis-Skins: from 135 612.22 ₽listings: 9
at a loss
StatTrak™ P2000 | Fire Elemental
Factory New
20 291.00 ₽45.00%
price without deals
SteamStatTrak™ P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New)net 17644.35you get 0.018461The Vanguard Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
no buy orders
sell on Market.CSGO: 17 619.78 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 19 319.94 · lots 4
on CSFloat: from 15 414.18 ₽listings: 13
on Lis-Skins: from 15 582.93 ₽listings: 13
at a loss
worst
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Angry Mob
Factory New
8 999.99 ₽5.00%
price without deals
SteamStatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New)net 7826.08you get 0.021538
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 8 049.62 ₽
(you get 6 999.66)) · buy orders: 655
sell on Market.CSGO: 6 929.09 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 7 597.69 · lots 17
on CSFloat: from 6 334.42 ₽listings: 20
on CS.Money: ~ 6 541.71 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 6 520.30 ₽listings: 53
about break-even
StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor
Factory New
43 104.32 ₽5.00%
price without deals
SteamStatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New)net 37482.02you get 0.024615
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 39 120.69 ₽
(you get 34 017.99)) · buy orders: 562
sell on Market.CSGO: 30 669.78 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 33 629.15 · lots 5
on CSFloat: from 27 399.46 ₽listings: 34
on CS.Money: ~ 29 456.11 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 29 221.41 ₽listings: 35
More
In a week, when the outcome can be sold
from outcome price history
In a bad week+21 331.85 ₽a worse week happens one time in ten
In a typical week+23 066.02 ₽historical median
If you repeat
10 000 simulations over the outcome odds
I already have items
enter their float — I'll pick what to buy
Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Prisma Collection and The Vanguard Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.
Third collection
add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more
All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.
Similar
2 crafts almost like this one
The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.
Craft 1743171
· The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 25 740.73₽
· invest 41 083.02₽
StatTrak™ G3SG1 | The Executioner (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076797 instead of 0.075622; StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Factory New): float at most 0.005947 instead of 0.004919
How to read these numbers
«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.
f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.
Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.
The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.
Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.
