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The Recoil Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

Classified → Covert

Average profit +502.19₴

Invest 3 394.39₴

Average return 3 896.58₴

ROI +14.8%

Chance of profit 55%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 8 365.25₴ · profit at most −4 468.68₴ (at most -53.4%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear) × 8 12% of the wear window fits at least ×2.59 2403.20 → 6224.30 ₴

P250 | Visions (Factory New) × 1 12% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 452.26 → 976.89 ₴

MP9 | Latte Rush (Field-Tested) × 1 12% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 538.92 → 1164.06 ₴

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −120 ₴

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Recoil Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

+502.19 ₴ +14.8% chance of profit 55%

expensive: AWP | LongDog (Minimal Wear) · 6 226.81 ₴ · chance 10%

profit on prices without salesat least −120 ₴

8× Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0793
1× P250 | Visions (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0081
1× MP9 | Latte Rush (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1769

Variant 2 The Snakebite Collection instead of The Train 2025 Collection

+1 407.90 ₴ +46.2% chance of profit 100%

expensive: USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New) · 5 333.44 ₴ · chance 40%

sells slowly

2× P250 | Visions (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0059
8× XM1014 | XOXO (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0768

Variant 3 The Revolution Collection instead of The Train 2025 Collection

+1 226.17 ₴ +40.2% chance of profit 100%

expensive: M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New) · 4 633.14 ₴ · chance 45%

sells slowly

1× P250 | Visions (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0043
1× AWP | Duality (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0749
8× P2000 | Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0749

Variant 4 only The Recoil Collection

+703.80 ₴ +24.0% chance of profit 100%

expensive: USP-S | Printstream (Factory New) · 4 039.89 ₴ · chance 50%

2× P250 | Visions (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0758
8× Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0758

Variant 5 The Spectrum 2 Collection instead of The Train 2025 Collection

+604.71 ₴ +18.6% chance of profit 55%

expensive: P250 | See Ya Later (Factory New) · 6 014.95 ₴ · chance 5.0%

1× P250 | Visions (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0758
8× Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0758
1× M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0758

Variant 6 The Spectrum Collection instead of The Train 2025 Collection

+519.51 ₴ +15.3% chance of profit 55%

expensive: AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New) · 7 612.60 ₴ · chance 5.0%

rare inputs

4× P250 | Visions (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0759
5× Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0759
1× CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0052

How to build

12% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 12% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×8

Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0793

2 403.20 ₴

at 300.40

Steam

×1

P250 | Visions

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0081

452.26 ₴

at 452.26

Steam

×1

MP9 | Latte Rush

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1769

538.92 ₴

at 538.92

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 3 394.39 ₴ +502.19 (+14.8%)

profit on prices without sales at least −875 ₴

9% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 9% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×6

Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0772

1 802.40 ₴

at 300.40

Steam

×2

P250 | Visions

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0063

904.53 ₴

at 452.26

Steam

×2

MP9 | Latte Rush

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1708

1 077.83 ₴

at 538.92

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 3 784.77 ₴ +370.73 (+9.8%)

profit on prices without sales at least −1 629 ₴

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×4

Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0757

1 201.60 ₴

at 300.40

Steam

×3

P250 | Visions

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0049

1 356.79 ₴

at 452.26

Steam

×3

MP9 | Latte Rush

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1664

1 616.75 ₴

at 538.92

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 4 175.15 ₴ +239.26 (+5.7%)

profit on prices without sales at least −2 383 ₴

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×2

Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0745

600.80 ₴

at 300.40

Steam

×4

P250 | Visions

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0039

1 809.06 ₴

at 452.26

Steam

×4

MP9 | Latte Rush

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1629

2 155.67 ₴

at 538.92

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 4 565.53 ₴ +107.79 (+2.4%)

What you get 3 outcomes

Profitable outcome 55%
Losing outcome 0%
About break-even 45%

about break-even

worst

AWP | Chromatic Aberration

Factory New

3 720.74 ₴ 45.00%

Steam

in profit

USP-S | Printstream

Factory New

4 645.88 ₴ 45.00%

Steam

in profit

best

AWP | LongDog

Minimal Wear

7 160.83 ₴ 10.00%

price without deals

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week -61.84 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +320.00 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Recoil Collection and The Train 2025 Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 2 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1740704 · The Recoil Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 505.84₴ · invest 3 216.81₴
rare inputs

G3SG1 | Flux (Field-Tested) instead of MP9 | Latte Rush (Field-Tested); Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077783 instead of 0.079363; P250 | Visions (Factory New): float at most 0.006810 instead of 0.008192
Craft 1740921 · The Recoil Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 476.56₴ · invest 3 461.73₴
AWP | Elite Build (Field-Tested) instead of MP9 | Latte Rush (Field-Tested)

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Recoil Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 3 outcomes

More

How to build