The Recoil Collection
+ The eSports 2014 Summer Collection
StatTrak™
Classified → Covert
About the craftCraft 1740984 · ways to build: 5StatTrak™ craft. Inputs and outcome are StatTrak: a normal item won't do here, and the outcome sells at the StatTrak price, not at the price of its normal counterpart.The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profitAverage profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment.+17 737.95₴
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam».11 438.12₴
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances.29 176.07₴
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment.+155.1%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input.95%
If buying now (with float)
invest at least 28 289.70₴
· profit at most +886.37₴
(at most +3.1%) · chance of profit at most 45%
An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.
!
The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
StatTrak™ P250 | Visions (Factory New) × 15% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.16696.86 → 1505.22 ₴
StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) × 25% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.211781.58 → 3937.29 ₴
StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera (Minimal Wear) × 75% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.558959.68 → 22847.19 ₴
Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.
Sell on a marketplace: CSFloat — outcomes: 1.
They have no price on Steam (above its price cap or nobody listed them); they are counted at the marketplace's cheapest listing minus its fee, ignoring pattern and float, — that is 45.0% of the probability. Money from the marketplace is real money you can withdraw, while the investment comes from the Steam balance. Without them (as zero, like before) the profit is -472.52 ₴.
Craft variants
Craft variants
The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.
marketplace pricesells slowly50% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
продажа ненадёжнаmarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly50% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.float out of reachThere are enough lots, but the needed float can't be reached with them: the craft can't be put together with the promised wears right now.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
1× StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested)buy0.1500–0.1641
marketplace pricesells slowly50% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
How to build
Ways to build
5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.
!
5% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (by listings)
Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×1
StatTrak™ P250 | Visions
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0037
(0% of this wear's listings)
696.86 ₴
at 696.86
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.003782f′ (normalized) 0.005403wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 22 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · little data: 3.0 d.
×2
StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1624
(15% of this wear's listings)
1 781.58 ₴
at 890.79
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.162429f′ (normalized) 0.138417wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 13 · good ≈ 2
on the market with this float, usually ~2,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 2 013.72 ₴
×7
StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0743
(0% of this wear's listings)
8 959.68 ₴
at 1 279.95
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.074323f′ (normalized) 0.059679wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 11 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Set · 10 pcs11 438.12 ₴
+17 737.95
(+155.1%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.069999900result 0.070000, 0.050800, 0.049000, 0.059500«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
8% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (by listings)
Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×5
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0764
(0% of this wear's listings)
2 363.50 ₴
at 472.70
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.076462f′ (normalized) 0.076462wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 24 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · little data: 3.0 d.
×3
StatTrak™ P250 | Visions
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0056
(0% of this wear's listings)
2 090.58 ₴
at 696.86
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.005654f′ (normalized) 0.008077wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 22 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · little data: 3.0 d.
×2
StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1685
(15% of this wear's listings)
1 781.58 ₴
at 890.79
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.168578f′ (normalized) 0.146727wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 13 · good ≈ 2
on the market with this float, usually ~2,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 2 013.72 ₴
Set · 10 pcs6 235.66 ₴
+5 765.80
(+92.5%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.069999900result 0.049000, 0.059500, 0.070000, 0.050800«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
8% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (by listings)
Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×3
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0763
(0% of this wear's listings)
1 418.10 ₴
at 472.70
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.076366f′ (normalized) 0.076366wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 24 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · little data: 3.0 d.
×4
StatTrak™ P250 | Visions
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0055
(0% of this wear's listings)
2 787.44 ₴
at 696.86
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.005570f′ (normalized) 0.007957wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 22 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · little data: 3.0 d.
×3
StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1683
(15% of this wear's listings)
2 672.37 ₴
at 890.79
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.168303f′ (normalized) 0.146355wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 13 · good ≈ 2
on the market with this float, usually ~2,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 2 013.72 ₴
Set · 10 pcs6 877.91 ₴
+7 577.06
(+110.2%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.069999900result 0.049000, 0.059500, 0.070000, 0.050800«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
7% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (by listings)
Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×3
StatTrak™ P250 | Visions
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0045
(0% of this wear's listings)
2 090.58 ₴
at 696.86
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004596f′ (normalized) 0.006565wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 22 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · little data: 3.0 d.
×3
StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1651
(15% of this wear's listings)
2 672.37 ₴
at 890.79
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.165101f′ (normalized) 0.142029wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 13 · good ≈ 2
on the market with this float, usually ~2,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 2 013.72 ₴
×4
StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0752
(0% of this wear's listings)
5 119.82 ₴
at 1 279.95
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.075252f′ (normalized) 0.063553wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 11 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Set · 10 pcs9 882.77 ₴
+14 386.27
(+145.6%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.069999900result 0.070000, 0.050800, 0.049000, 0.059500«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
6% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (by listings)
Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×5
StatTrak™ P250 | Visions
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0748
(3% of this wear's listings)
1 897.07 ₴
at 379.41
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.074890f′ (normalized) 0.106985wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 30 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~1,
new per day — can't tell yet, cheapest usually 2 928.03 ₴ · little data: 0.0 d.
×4
StatTrak™ P250 | Visions
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0042
(0% of this wear's listings)
2 787.44 ₴
at 696.86
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004278f′ (normalized) 0.006112wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 22 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · little data: 3.0 d.
×1
StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1640
(15% of this wear's listings)
890.79 ₴
at 890.79
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.164058f′ (normalized) 0.140620wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 13 · good ≈ 2
on the market with this float, usually ~2,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 2 013.72 ₴
Set · 10 pcs5 575.29 ₴
+3 972.64
(+71.2%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.069999900result 0.049000, 0.059500, 0.070000, 0.050800«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
Another set, profit no worse than the best by%
What you get
4 outcomes
Profitable outcome 90%
Losing outcome 5%
About break-even 5%
in profit
best
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Jaguar
Factory New
41 293.58 ₴45.00%
sell on CSFloat
SteamStatTrak™ AK-47 | Jaguar (Factory New)net 40467.71you get 0.070000The eSports 2014 Summer Collectionno price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 41 293.58 ₴listings 10 · you get 40 467.71 ₴ (2.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternsell now to a buy order: 34 056.78 ₴
(you get 29 614.59)) · buy orders: 541Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price
on CSFloat: from 41 293.58 ₴listings: 10
on Lis-Skins: from 45 563.43 ₴listings: 11
sell now to a buy order: 14 106.94 ₴
(you get 12 266.90)) · buy orders: 585
sell on Market.CSGO: 13 346.41 ₴ to your card
cheapest lot 14 634.22 · lots 5
on CSFloat: from 11 445.05 ₴listings: 16
on CS.Money: ~ 12 285.29 ₴
on Lis-Skins: from 12 294.27 ₴listings: 30
at a loss
worst
StatTrak™ AWP | Chromatic Aberration
Factory New
2 777.56 ₴5.00%
SteamStatTrak™ AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)net 2415.27you get 0.049000sells 32 a weeksell now to a buy order: 2 412.62 ₴
(you get 2 097.93)) · buy orders: 1352
sell on Market.CSGO: 1 911.53 ₴ to your card
cheapest lot 2 095.98 · lots 18
on CSFloat: from 1 877.51 ₴listings: 80
on CS.Money: ~ 1 926.88 ₴
on Lis-Skins: from 1 955.16 ₴listings: 69
about break-even
StatTrak™ USP-S | Printstream
Factory New
13 539.61 ₴5.00%
SteamStatTrak™ USP-S | Printstream (Factory New)net 11773.58you get 0.059500sells 2 a weekno buy orders
sell on Market.CSGO: 12 238.56 ₴ to your card
cheapest lot 13 419.48 · lots 8
on CSFloat: from 10 344.04 ₴listings: 64
on CS.Money: ~ 11 392.99 ₴
on Lis-Skins: from 11 279.88 ₴listings: 50
More
In a week, when the outcome can be sold
from outcome price history
In a bad week+16 396.21 ₴a worse week happens one time in ten
In a typical week+17 642.93 ₴historical median
If you repeat
10 000 simulations over the outcome odds
I already have items
enter their float — I'll pick what to buy
Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Recoil Collection and The eSports 2014 Summer Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.
Third collection
add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more
All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.
Similar
10 crafts almost like this one
The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.
Craft 1740298
· The Prisma Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 18 305.88₴
· invest 11 347.80₴
продажа ненадёжнаmarketplace pricesells slowlyfloat out of reachrare inputs
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ P250 | Visions (Factory New); StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161898 instead of 0.162429; StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074138 instead of 0.074323
Craft 1718200
· The CS20 Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 17 902.63₴
· invest 11 486.39₴
marketplace pricesells slowlyrare inputs
StatTrak™ AUG | Death by Puppy (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ P250 | Visions (Factory New); StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162131 instead of 0.162429; StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074219 instead of 0.074323
Craft 1736698
· The Kilowatt Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 17 798.90₴
· invest 11 603.62₴
marketplace pricesells slowlyrare inputs
StatTrak™ Zeus x27 | Olympus (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ P250 | Visions (Factory New); StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162410 instead of 0.162429; StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074316 instead of 0.074323
Craft 1729872
· The Fracture Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 17 754.81₴
· invest 11 272.04₴
marketplace pricesells slowlyrare inputs
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ P250 | Visions (Factory New); StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162268 instead of 0.162429; StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074267 instead of 0.074323
Craft 1723338
· The Clutch Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 17 602.54₴
· invest 11 346.78₴
marketplace pricesells slowlyrare inputs
StatTrak™ AUG | Stymphalian (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ P250 | Visions (Factory New); StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162384 instead of 0.162429; StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074307 instead of 0.074323
Craft 1733734
· The Glove Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 17 577.31₴
· invest 11 960.76₴
Craft 1739436
· The Phoenix Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 17 530.59₴
· invest 11 821.55₴
marketplace pricesells slowlyrare inputs
StatTrak™ Nova | Antique (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ P250 | Visions (Factory New); StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161909 instead of 0.162429; StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074142 instead of 0.074323
Craft 1742855
· The Spectrum Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 17 432.26₴
· invest 12 341.51₴
marketplace pricesells slowlyrare inputs
StatTrak™ AWP | Fever Dream (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ P250 | Visions (Factory New); StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162319 instead of 0.162429; StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074284 instead of 0.074323
Craft 1724776
· The Danger Zone Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 17 398.13₴
· invest 11 535.12₴
marketplace pricesells slowlyrare inputs
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ P250 | Visions (Factory New); StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162268 instead of 0.162429; StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074267 instead of 0.074323
Craft 1732408
· The Gamma Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 17 359.11₴
· invest 11 946.45₴
marketplace pricesells slowlyrare inputs
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ P250 | Visions (Factory New); StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162207 instead of 0.162429; StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074245 instead of 0.074323
How to read these numbers
«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.
f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.
Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.
The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.
Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.
